National Day tourism market forecast: strong supply and demand, frequent hot spots

During the 2016 National Day holiday, the tourism economy will be characterized by strong demand, abundant supply, frequent hotspots and frequent arrivals. It is estimated that the tourism market will receive 589 million visitors during the seven-day holiday, a year-on-year increase of 12%; and tourism revenue will reach 478.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%.

1. Market Operation Characteristics

1. Residents are willing to travel, and the tourism market is booming in both supply and demand

According to the "Travel Intention Survey of Chinese Residents" conducted by the China Tourism Academy (National Tourism Administration Data Center) in 60 sample cities across the country, the willingness of Chinese residents to travel in the fourth quarter was 79.2%, of which 55.5% chose to travel during the National Day, showing a high willingness to travel. At the same time, affected by the product optimization and price promotion of tourism enterprises on the supply side, the National Day tourism market is expected to maintain steady growth this year. It is estimated that the National Day holiday tourism market will receive about 589 million people, a year-on-year increase of 12%.

The booming global tourism, toilet revolution, and tourism management system reforms across the country have had a positive impact on tourism supply, public services, and product innovation. With the National Day approaching, outbound travel and domestic long-distance travel have become the focus of tourism companies' layout, and tourism products are in sufficient supply. There is a rich supply of outbound travel routes to Japan, South Korea, Russia, the United States, Southeast Asia, and other hot domestic travel routes such as Kunming, Yunnan, Guilin, Guangxi, and Sanya, Hainan. In addition to maintaining traditional hot routes, various tourism companies have launched diversified products such as free travel, study tours, cruise tourism, and customized package tours. Major banks have also joined the National Day tourism promotion war, and the integration of "tourism + finance" has deepened. ICBC cooperated with Ctrip to launch the "National Day Juhuiwan" event, and launched the "Beautiful China, Colorful Golden Autumn" tourism route with China Youth Travel Network. All reservations that use the ICBC interface to pay in full online will receive different degrees of discounts. China Merchants Bank, Bank of China, Pudong Development Bank, etc. have also launched tourism route discounts.

2. Interprovincial travel and outbound travel are the mainstays, with a prominent feature of traveling far in the front and near in the back

The survey shows that domestic inter-provincial tours are the first choice for residents traveling during the National Day holiday, followed by overseas tours, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan tours, and suburban tours. Inter-provincial tours will promote the formation of east-west and north-south two-way cross-tourism flows during the National Day holiday. Zhangjiajie, Huangshan, Hangzhou, Shanghai, Guilin, Sanya, Chengdu, Kunming, Qingdao, Beijing, Suzhou, Xi'an and other places will become hot spots. Scenic spots and historical sites are the most popular among inter-provincial tourists, and suburban tours are mainly peripheral tours and rural tours, and the market heat continues to rise. Ancient towns, theme scenic spots, and rural leisure tourist destinations around each city will become hot spots.

In terms of travel methods, flights, self-driving and trains are the main options, with family travel accounting for the highest proportion. The survey shows that the highest proportion of people choose to travel by plane (34.79%), followed by self-driving (22.47%) and train (21.62%); 44.7% of tourists choose to travel with their families; and they are most concerned about factors such as scenic spots, accommodation and transportation prices. In terms of travel time, October 1 to 4 is expected to be dominated by inter-provincial travel, and October 6 to 7 will be dominated by suburban travel.

Outbound travel's unpopular routes have become a bright spot, and cruise tours are popular in the market. Non-mainstream destinations such as Eastern Europe and Sri Lanka are increasingly favored by consumers. Routes to Japan, South Korea, Russia, the United States, Canada, and Southeast Asia are still popular routes, especially cruise travel routes to Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia. In addition, affected by the tourism market environment and recent events in some destination countries and regions, the growth of outbound tourists from Thailand, Taiwan, and Hong Kong may slow down significantly. Under the condition that economic environment, visas, transportation and other factors are relatively stable, inbound tourism will maintain steady growth during the National Day holiday.

II. Problem Analysis

1. There is a risk that tourism service quality issues will quickly ferment on the Internet. The service quality of tourist destinations is currently a widely concerned issue in society. The large number of people during the National Day holiday will bring great pressure to hot spots, accommodation, catering, road traffic and other links. How to ensure service quality deserves long-term attention from all walks of life. In particular, after the incident of cheating and overcharging tourists, it is necessary to deal with it promptly and properly to prevent "small incidents" in tourism from fermenting into "big public opinion" in society through the Internet.

2. The locations of tourism traffic safety accidents are more dispersed. During the National Day holiday, many people travel, and the proportion of self-driving tours increases year by year. Road congestion, "road rage", and the increase in the number of novice drivers have increased the possibility of traffic accidents, and the locations of accidents are more dispersed. Uncivilized tourism may affect market order and add to the congestion of long holiday tourism.

3. Tourism weather issues need to be closely monitored. According to the forecast of the China Meteorological Observatory, a typhoon may occur in the Guangdong and Hainan areas between September 29 and October 1. Tourism companies and tourists need to be reminded to prepare in advance to avoid losses.

4. There are many cases of telecom fraud in tourism. Based on past experience, telecom fraud in the name of cancelling air tickets and group fees tends to increase during the National Day holiday.

Source: China Tourism Academy (National Tourism Administration Data Center)

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