Data Release | "Belt and Road" Tourism Big Data Special Report (Full Text)

On September 27, our Institute's Dean Dai Bin, Chief Statistician Tang Xiaoyun, and Director Jiang Yiyi attended the 3rd Silk Road (Dunhuang) International Cultural Expo, commissioned by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. At the Silk Road Culture and Tourism Forum, Chief Statistician Tang Xiaoyun, on behalf of the research team, released the "Belt and Road" Tourism Big Data Special Report, which is part of the "3rd Silk Road (Dunhuang) International Cultural Expo Culture and Tourism Special Forum Series Results". The full text is as follows:

1. Economic, social and tourism development in the countries along the Belt and Road

1. Economic and social overview

At present, China has signed cooperation agreements on jointly building the Belt and Road Initiative with 69 countries along the route and international organizations, mainly covering 65 countries (as shown in Figure 1).

1. Population size of the countries along the Belt and Road: obvious demographic dividend advantage

Including China, the total population of the Belt and Road countries reached 4.641 billion at the end of 2017, accounting for 62.35% of the world's total population.

2. The land area of the countries along the Belt and Road: the relationship between people and land is relatively tense

The total area of the Belt and Road countries is 50.47 million square kilometers, accounting for about 1/3 of the world's total land area. The Belt and Road countries account for 33.87% of the world's territory and support 62.35% of the world's population.

3. GDP scale of “Belt and Road” countries: Tourism poverty reduction has a long way to go

In 2017, the world's total output value was 74 trillion U.S. dollars. The output value of the "Belt and Road" countries reached 24.93 trillion U.S. dollars in 2017, accounting for about 1/3 of the world's total output value. Among them, China, India, and Russia are countries in the trillion-dollar club. Most of the countries along the “Belt and Road” are developing countries, and their per capita GDP is US$5,372.2, which is only 30.69% of non-“Belt and Road” countries and 54.04% of the world average. It can be seen that the “One Belt and One Road” initiative is an important front for poverty alleviation through tourism.

2. Development of tourism market in countries along the Belt and Road

1. Population size supports the blue ocean of international and domestic tourism market

In 2017, the number of international and domestic tourists worldwide was approximately 11.9 billion, of which 1.323 billion were international tourists, an increase of 123 million compared with 2016. The "One Belt and One Road" countries had approximately 582 million international tourist arrivals in 2017, accounting for 44.02% of the world's international tourist arrivals, which is about 10 percentage points higher than the region's GDP. It is an important net inflow of international tourists in the world. In terms of domestic tourism, the “Belt and Road” countries are far ahead with 8.42 billion tourists, accounting for 80%. China ranks first in the world with 5.001 billion tourists. It can be seen that the scale of the international and domestic tourism market is related to the level of economic development, the degree of policy openness, etc., and is also positively related to the degree of enrichment of local tourist sources.

2. International tourism consumption in the Belt and Road countries: Tourist consumption lags behind market development

According to Euromonitor database data, the outbound tourism consumption of the “Belt and Road” countries in 2017 was US$329.4 billion, and the inbound tourism revenue was US$509.1 billion, indicating that the “Belt and Road” countries as a whole have a surplus in international tourism services trade. Comparatively speaking, the level of international tourism consumption in the “Belt and Road” countries is relatively low. Considering their large population base and rapidly growing GDP, the countries along the “Belt and Road” have huge potential for international tourism development.

II. International Tourism from China and Countries Along the Belt and Road

As the advocate and initiator of the Belt and Road Initiative, China has close ties with the tourism of countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, and the two countries are mutually dependent and mutually successful.

1. International tourism between China and countries along the Belt and Road

The number of tourists from countries along the Belt and Road to China has maintained a steady growth, from 9.03 million in 2013 to 10.64 million in 2017. The number of Chinese tourists traveling to countries along the Belt and Road has been increasing year by year, from 15.49 million in 2013 to 27.41 million in 2017, an increase of 77% in five years, with an average annual growth rate of 15.34%. In particular, with the continuous deepening of the relevant cooperation policies of the Belt and Road in 2015, the growth of the number of Chinese tourists to countries along the Belt and Road has accelerated, and China's cornerstone position in the development of tourism economy in the Belt and Road countries has been continuously highlighted.

2. Economic contribution of tourism between China and countries along the Belt and Road

According to the broad definition, including short-term study abroad, employment, medical treatment and other consumption, the countries along the Belt and Road achieved international tourism revenue of 385.1 billion US dollars in 2017, of which about 30.82% was contributed by tourists from mainland China. Chinese tourists are the main source of inbound tourism revenue for the countries along the Belt and Road. In 2017, China achieved inbound tourism revenue of 123.4 billion US dollars, of which the share created by the Belt and Road countries was about 20.8 billion US dollars, accounting for 16.88% of China's international tourism revenue, with great room for future growth.

3. Tourism’s contribution to employment in countries along the Belt and Road

On average, tourism contributes 5.36% of direct employment and 14.11% of comprehensive employment to countries along the Belt and Road, playing a significant role in lowering unemployment and alleviating poverty.

III. Evaluation of Tourism Development in “Belt and Road” Countries

1. National highway and railway construction along the Belt and Road

The total mileage of highways in the countries along the Belt and Road is about 27.03 million kilometers, accounting for 40.3% of the world's total mileage, and the total mileage of railways is about 790,000 kilometers, accounting for 39.4% of the world's total railway mileage. Overall, the total mileage of roads in the countries along the Belt and Road accounts for about 2/5 of the world's total road mileage.

2. Tourist evaluation of tourism facilities in countries along the Belt and Road

The average evaluation of tourists for tourism facilities in the “Belt and Road” countries was 3.736, higher than the world average of 3.615. There were 14 countries with a comprehensive evaluation of more than 4.0, and 42 countries with a comprehensive evaluation exceeding the world average. The country with the highest evaluation was Serbia.

3. Satisfaction of Chinese tourists traveling to the countries along the Belt and Road

In the first half of 2018, the average satisfaction of Chinese tourists visiting the Belt and Road countries was 77.36, with tourists from Singapore, Maldives and Turkey showing high satisfaction. In addition, Chinese tourists' satisfaction with Singapore ranked first in Asia, with Maldives ranked fourth in Asia, and with Turkey ranked eighth in Europe.

4. Tourism Development Index of Belt and Road Countries

1. Comprehensive Development Index

Through the four dimensions, namely, tourism development scale, tourism development structure, tourism development quality, and tourism development environment, and fitting to form a comprehensive tourism development index, comprehensive data collection and modeling (modeling method see Appendix 1) analysis for 162 countries and regions, the tourism development index of each country/region is calculated. The quantitative evaluation of the comprehensive tourism competition index of the "Belt and Road" countries shows that, in general, the tourism development index of the "Belt and Road" countries is basically the same as the world average, but except for the quality of tourism development, the average development level of the "Belt and Road" countries in the other three dimensions is slightly lower than the world average. This shows that the tourism industry of the "Belt and Road" countries has a relatively prominent position in their national economies. The tourism development potential of the "Belt and Road" countries is relatively large, and the source market needs to be further explored. Attention should be paid to inter-regional tourism exchanges, especially within the "Belt and Road" region.

2. Ranking by category

According to the evaluation results of the research team of the China Tourism Academy (Data Center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism), the top ten countries along the “Belt and Road” in terms of tourism development scale are: China, India, Singapore, Russia, Qatar, Thailand, Greece, Lebanon, Turkey and Kuwait.

The top ten countries in tourism development structure are: Cyprus, Vietnam, Indonesia, Slovakia, Malaysia, Bulgaria, Pakistan, Lithuania, Estonia and United Arab Emirates.

The top ten countries in terms of tourism development quality are: Maldives, Israel, Slovenia, Turkey, Greece, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Cyprus, Cambodia and Montenegro.

The top ten countries in terms of tourism development environment are: Slovenia, Slovakia, Singapore, Estonia, Poland, Brunei, Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania and Malaysia.

The top ten countries in the comprehensive tourism development index are: Slovenia, China, Estonia, Slovakia, Singapore, Cyprus, Israel, Lithuania, Latvia and Bulgaria.

IV. Outlook

1. The countries along the “Belt and Road” have a large population and a small land area, and their economic development level is relatively low. The performance of the tourism economy is better than that of the macroeconomic development. The tourism industry has a more prominent position in the national economy of these countries. The role of tourism in poverty reduction and employment promotion needs to be further guided, supported and highlighted.

2. The tourism exchanges between China and countries along the Belt and Road Initiative show the characteristics of "one fast and one stable", with the rapid growth of Chinese tourists going abroad and the steady development of inbound tourists from Belt and Road countries. We should increase cooperation in facilitation, marketing, industrial docking and other aspects to promote the sound and rapid development of two-way tourism exchanges.

3. The scale of tourism infrastructure supply in the “Belt and Road” countries is greater than the proportion of their GDP in the world economy, indicating that the contribution of investment in the economic development of these countries is more obvious. In the future, the role of consumption in the economy will become more and more obvious. As tourism is a leading industry in consumption, countries along the “Belt and Road” are well-positioned to rely on relatively complete infrastructure to play a greater role in tourism’s prominent role in economic development.

4. The quality, scale and structure of tourism development in the countries along the Belt and Road are better than the world average, and the foundation for tourism development is good. However, the tourism industry in most countries is relatively dependent on the inbound tourism market. More conditions should be created to encourage local people to travel in the country, fully tap the demographic dividend, and enhance the endogenous driving force for the development of the tourism economy.

Annex 1: Tourism Development Index Framework for Destination Countries and Regions

The construction of the index system is mainly realized by multi-level indicators. By multi-level and diversified decomposition of the first-level indicators, the indicators can be quantified and operated. The World Destination Tourism Development Index contains four second-level indexes, which are decomposed into 11 dimensions and include a total of 44 measurement indicators:

Among them, the Destination Tourism Development Scale Index (TVI) aims to measure the overall scale of the tourism industry from two aspects: supply and demand, and includes two subdivision indicators: tourism reception scale and pan-tourism industry scale. The Destination Tourism Development Structural Index (TSI) aims to reflect the rationality level of the tourism economic structure and involves indicators from two aspects: the tourism market and the tourism industry. The Destination Tourism Development Quality Index (TQI) aims to measure the quality level of destination tourism development from three aspects: tourist evaluation, tourism industry efficiency and tourism economic contribution. The Destination Tourism Development Environment Index (TEI) aims to measure the superiority of the comprehensive environment for tourism development in a destination. The tourism development environment consists of several sub-environments such as nature, policy, economy, and social culture that have a wide impact on tourism development.

"One Belt and One Road" Tourism Big Data Special Report Research Group

Project Leader:

Dai Bin, President of China Tourism Academy, Director of the Data Center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism

main members:

Ma Yiliang, Tang Xiaoyun, He Qiongfeng, Liu Xiangyan, Jiang Yanxia, Dai Huihui, Yang Suzhen, Zhang Jiayi, Li Huiyun

Source: China Tourism Academy (Data Center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism)

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