Research results of tourism economic operation analysis in the first half of 2013 and trend forecast report in the second half of the year

Tourism economy maintained steady growth in the first half of the year

On July 11th, the China Tourism Research Institute released the report "Analysis of Tourism Economy Operation in the First Half of 2013 and Trend Forecast in the Second Half of the Year" in Beijing. The report shows that in the first half of 2013, the overall operation of China's tourism economy was stable with some progress, showing the characteristics of steady development and structural adjustment coexisting. The market fundamentals are showing a trend of "two highs and one decline", and the structural adjustment of industries and regional operations is significantly accelerated due to the influence of macroeconomic and other development environments, leading to intensified competition among market entities. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, there are still significant difficulties in the inbound market. The domestic mass tourism market has a stable foundation, and commercial innovation efforts have further increased. Overall, the operation of the tourism economy tends to be relatively optimistic. 1、 The analysis of the operation of the tourism economy in the first half of 2013 was significantly affected by the short-term development environment. The structural fluctuations of the tourism market increased in the first half of the year, and the level of tourism industry and regional tourism prosperity remained stable with a slight decline. （1） Development environment: The domestic economy has entered a medium speed growth stage, and the international economy has stabilized. In the first half of the year, economic growth has slowed down, which will have a downward impact on the operation of the tourism economy in the short term. However, with the acceleration of China's economic structural adjustment and the steady progress of reform and development strategic measures, it is generally conducive to the long-term development of the tourism industry. It is expected that the GDP growth rate in the first half of the year will be 7.8%, while the service industry will accelerate its growth. From January to May, the growth of national passenger traffic slowed down to 5.8%, while the total retail sales of consumer goods remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 12.6%. Under the strong driving force of national tourism consumption, the tourism industry has become a demonstration industry and the main force of service industry development in China's new development stage, attracting attention from all walks of life. The domestic policy environment is also relatively favorable. The Tourism Law and the National Tourism and Leisure Outline have been successively introduced, and the central leadership has provided a series of specialized explanations for tourism development. China's tourism days, holidays, and tourism themed years have become more institutionalized. The factors that have a negative impact on the tourism market mainly include the Ya'an earthquake, H7N9 avian influenza, environmental quality and food safety issues, social public opinion issues, especially the Fenghuang Ancient City toll incident, and frequent uncivilized behavior of tourists. The international economy has bottomed out and stabilized. The latest economic outlook from the Organisation for Economic Co operation and Development (OECD) predicts a recovery in the world economy in the first half of the year, with the Morgan Stanley Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index stabilizing above the boom bust line of 50. The World Tourism Organization is promoting the "Global Leaders Support Tourism" initiative, visa facilitation, and other initiatives. The China Russia Tourism Year, especially after high-level visits, has shown initial results in China's global diplomatic strategy, creating a favorable external development environment. The bottlenecks that restrict inbound tourism mainly include the gap between the country's image and the understanding of foreign people, the long-term lack of breakthroughs in comprehensive policies such as visas, tax exemptions, and air traffic rights, intensified competition among destinations, and the continuous appreciation of the renminbi. （2） Market fundamentals: The foundation of mass tourism is stable, and inbound tourism continues to fluctuate and decline. In the first half of the year, the inbound market and domestic official travel were relatively sluggish, while business tourism remained relatively stable. The demand for mass tourism market maintained a rapid growth momentum, becoming the foundation for the stable and rapid development of the tourism market. It is expected that the total tourism revenue in the first half of the year will be about 140 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.7% compared to the same period last year. Domestic tourism continues to grow, but the growth rate has slowed down. It is expected that the number of domestic tourists will be about 1.68 billion, an increase of 9.8% compared to the same period last year. Domestic tourism revenue reached 1.26 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%. It is worth noting that the growth rate of domestic tourism has slowed down for the first time in recent years. The inbound tourism continues to be sluggish, and the external demand market lacks momentum. The number of inbound tourists from January to May was 53.539 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%. The foreign exchange income from inbound tourism was 19.507 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 5.46%. Based on the situation in various regions in the first half of the year, it is expected that the number of inbound tourists will reach 64.3 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%; The foreign exchange revenue from inbound tourism was $23.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5%. Outbound tourism has developed rapidly, and overseas consumption has increased significantly. The estimated number of outbound tourists is about 45.1 million, an increase of 17.0% compared to the same period last year. Outbound tourism expenses exceeded 63 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 35%, with a trade deficit of 38.6 billion US dollars. （3） Industry fundamentals: Maintaining a "relative prosperity" level, but the downward trend of prosperity has intensified. The prosperity of hotels, travel agencies, and tourism groups has successively adjusted and fallen. The tourism industry operating prosperity index in the first and second quarters of 2013 was 115.85 and 110.16, respectively, both at a "relative prosperity" level. Since the fourth quarter of 2012, it has been in a fluctuating downward trend. The prosperity index of performance indicators such as travel bookings, prices, and operating income has all fallen below the critical point of 100. From the perspective of different industries, the prosperity of various sectors such as hotels and travel agencies has gradually declined. After a slight decline to 106.29 in the first quarter, the hotel industry remained stable at that level in the second quarter, at 106.86. The prosperity of travel agencies decreased from a "relatively prosperous" level of 120.55 in the first quarter to a "slightly prosperous" level of 109.85 in the second quarter. The prosperity level of tourism groups also decreased from 128.40 in the first quarter to 105.60 in the second quarter, while the prosperity level of scenic spots decreased from a "relatively prosperous" level of 121.98 to a "relatively prosperous" level of 119.86. The structural adjustment of tourism related industries has also accelerated in the first half of the year. The revenue growth of the catering industry from January to May was only 8.5%, lower than the level of 13.2% in the same period last year, and the growth rate of added value in the catering industry also decreased to 4.5%. In the first quarter of 2013, the number of domestic tourists organized and received by travel agencies nationwide decreased by 8.54% and 9.89% respectively. In the second quarter, the performance of tourism enterprises, mainly in the high-end luxury market, continued to decline. It is worth noting that tourism enterprises targeting the mass market still maintain rapid development. Ctrip's net operating revenue in the first quarter increased by 27% year-on-year, and hotel bookings increased by 41% year-on-year. It is expected to maintain rapid growth in the first half of the year. Driven by the growth of its tourism and vacation business, China Youth Travel Service saw a net profit increase of 43.83% in the first quarter. New breakthroughs have been made in cross-border mergers and acquisitions by companies such as Kaiyuan and Hainan Airlines. （4） Regional tourism: The decline in prosperity in the western region has led to a significant decrease in overall economic levels. Since the beginning of this year, due to the impact of the development environment, the tourism prosperity levels in the eastern, central, and western regions of China have all shown a fluctuating downward trend, with the western region experiencing the largest decline and performance indicators being 8-10 points lower than those in the eastern and central regions. The prosperity index of the three major regions in the second quarter was 112.09, 109.55, and 104.73, all lower than the first quarter. The eastern region remained at a "relatively prosperous" level, while the central and western regions both declined to a "slightly prosperous" level. In the first half of the year, the innovation level of regional tourism policies was relatively high, with obvious characteristics such as internationalization and regional cooperation, industrial innovation, and institutional reform. For example, Beijing held the Garden Expo, the Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Tourism Cooperation Planning Outline was launched for discussion, and Liaoning held the World Horticultural Expo; Tianjin, Jiangsu, Liaoning, and Guangdong have respectively launched industrial innovations such as cruise tourism experimental zones, island tourism, coastal tourism corridors, and ocean tourism cooperation; Yunnan and Jiangsu have established and operated tourism development committees with their own characteristics. 2、 The trend forecast for the second half of 2013 shows that the current leading index of tourism economy operation is 91.13, maintaining a "weak recession" level, a decrease of 5.61 compared to the first quarter. It is expected that the overall operation of the tourism economy in the second half of the year will be relatively optimistic, and there are still significant difficulties in the inbound market. However, the domestic mass market foundation is stable, and commercial innovation efforts will further increase. （1） Development environment: There are opportunities in the market and challenges in the industry. The tone of China's macro policy this year is to seek progress while maintaining stability. Macro control and medium - to long-term reform measures are conducive to adjusting the economic structure and promoting the development of the service industry, and to shifting economic growth from investment driven to consumption driven. The overall economic outlook is optimistic. The formal implementation of the Tourism Law and a series of national strategies have laid the institutional foundation for promoting the healthy development of the tourism industry. However, in the short term, the overall macroeconomic prosperity level in China is stable, slightly cold, with a leading index of 99.8 and showing a fluctuating downward trend. China's economic operation has entered a period of transformation, and the contradiction and adjustment of structural surplus are becoming prominent. The risk of slowing down aggregate demand still exists. The downward pressure on the executive procurement index is significant, and the growth of per capita disposable income for urban and rural residents has slowed down. The number of new jobs created by small and medium-sized enterprises has significantly decreased. International economic growth continues to bottom out and stabilize, but there is a possibility of slowing down. Recently, the World Bank lowered the global economic growth rate for 2013 from 2.4% at the beginning of the year to 2.2%, stating that in the first half of the year, the economic growth rates of developed economies such as the United States and Japan were significantly lower than expected; Europe is still struggling with a debt crisis, and the recession is more severe than expected; The economic growth of other emerging economies has generally slowed down. The World Trade Organization has also lowered the international trade growth rate for 2013 from 4.5% at the beginning of the year to 3.3%. （2） Economic foundation: The willingness to travel and tourism investment are relatively active, and market confidence fluctuates. The willingness of residents to travel remains stable at 86.05%, and the willingness of elderly people to travel has reached 20%. Summer is the traditional peak season for tourism, and from June to August, 13 cities including Shenyang will successively open individual tours to Taiwan. The current cumulative investment in urban accommodation and catering industry is 187.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, which is one of the faster industries. After May, consumer confidence in China has declined to 99.0%. The travel booking index decreased from 108.79 at the beginning of the year to 97.49, and the confidence of tourism entrepreneurs in the full year development dropped to 101.02. The growth of high-end tourism demand has also slowed down. （3） Existing problems: It is necessary to pay attention to the growth rate, development quality, and macroeconomic regulation. Firstly, there is a risk of slowing down the driving force of tourism demand. The main manifestation is the sluggish inbound tourism, which is affected by macro fundamentals in China. Official travel is restricted, especially due to the slowdown in manufacturing output and income growth of urban and rural residents, leading to fluctuations in consumer confidence, which may affect the business travel and leisure tourism markets. Second, the quality of development has attracted the attention of the whole society. For example, the price rise in tourist attractions has caused widespread controversy, tourists' uncivilized behavior has damaged the image of countrymen, and environmental quality and international tourism competitiveness have declined. Thirdly, there is a certain disconnect between policy orientation and industrial development, and the influence and leadership of the government and associations on the industry urgently need to be strengthened. In the first half of the year, the innovation of national and local tourism policies reached a high level, but there was insufficient attention paid to promoting industrial development, and insufficient response and guidance to the current macro situation, market changes, industrial adjustments, regional competition, etc. The judgment of market operation has not yet formed a consensus. （4） Development forecast: Overall, it tends to be relatively optimistic and can basically achieve the annual development goals. Inbound tourism may remain relatively stable last year due to various complex factors affecting the operation of the tourism economy. However, the overall tourism economy will remain stable. The research institute holds a "relatively optimistic" overall judgment that the annual development indicators set by the National Tourism Administration at the beginning of the year can be basically achieved, while the inbound tourism market may be lower than the "small growth" target set at the beginning of the year and "basically stable" compared to last year. It is expected that the total number of tourists received throughout the year will be 3.383 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%; The total tourism revenue was 2.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%. The number of domestic tourists reached 3.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%; Domestic tourism revenue reached 2.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The number of inbound tourists reached 133 million, which is basically the same as last year; The foreign exchange income from inbound tourism was 48.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 1%. The number of outbound tourists reached 95.7 million, a year-on-year increase of 15%; Outbound tourism expenditure reached 117.6 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 20%, and the trade deficit in tourism services further widened.