Liu Xiangyan and Zhang Tianli | China-US Tourism Service Trade

The tourism industry in the United States started early and has a solid industrial foundation. The tourism industry in the United States has an early development history, rich tourism resources and a solid industrial foundation. The immigrant culture and spirit of adventure in the United States have made the American people naturally inclined to travel and tour. The United States started the tourism industry in the modern sense in the late 19th century and early 20th century. With the acceleration of industrialization and the increase of people's income, the general public quickly joined the ranks of tourists. In addition, tourism companies have the awareness of serving the "masses" from the beginning. The United States entered the era of mass tourism earlier than other parts of the world. In terms of tourism resources, like China, the United States has very rich tourism resources. The United States has a complete management and maintenance system for national parks and forest parks, which provide tourists with a wide range of rest spaces and convenient facilities. Yellowstone Park, the Grand Canyon of Colorado, Niagara Falls, etc. are well known to tourists from all over the world. According to information released by the National Park Service, the US National Park System includes 419 management and protection units such as parks, memorials, historical sites and rivers, receiving more than 330 million visitors each year; according to information released by the US Forest Service of the US Department of Agriculture, there are 154 national forest parks and 20 national grasslands in the United States. The forests, wetlands, grasslands and other protected areas managed by them cover an area of ​​780,000 square kilometers, accounting for 8% of the total land area. Among them, 122 ski resorts receive 27 million visitors each year. In addition, the United States has the largest number of museums in the world, more than 35,000, among which the Metropolitan Museum of Art is world-famous and receives tens of millions of visitors each year. The United States is also the originator of theme parks. The world-renowned Disneyland and Universal Studios have landed in many countries. According to statistics, in 2016, the number of tourists received by various parks under Disney was nearly 140 million worldwide. Travel services, accommodation and transportation are the three pillar industries of the tourism industry. The US travel service industry has developed distribution channels and industry organizations. According to statistics from the U.S. Department of Labor, in 2016, there were 82,000 travel agencies of all kinds in the United States, 2.5 times the number of travel agencies in China (32,000). The online tourism industry in the United States is very developed, with the highest penetration rate in the world, exceeding 50%, much higher than that in China (less than 20%). It has the world's largest online travel agent (OTA) Expedia, as well as OTAs such as priceline and booking that have a high global market share, and the world's largest UGC online travel community Tripadvisor. In addition, the United States also has the world's largest travel service association organization, the American Society of Travel Agents (ASTA), whose members are distributed in more than 140 countries around the world. The U.S. accommodation industry began to embark on the path of scale, standardization and group development in the 1950s, and led the service standards and product innovation of the global accommodation industry. According to data released by the American Hotel & Lodging Association (AHLA), there are more than 50,000 accommodation facilities of all kinds in the United States. The global hotel chain group ranking of the famous accommodation industry magazine "Hotel" shows that in 2018, despite competition from hotels in other countries such as China, four hotel chain groups in the United States still entered the top ten list. Unlike Chinese hotel brands that are concentrated in mid-range and economy hotels, American brand hotel groups such as Marriott, Hilton, and Wyndham have always been leaders in the global high-end hotel market. The U.S. civil aviation industry is also relatively mature. Since the deregulation began in 1978, with the full play of the market competition mechanism, American civil aviation companies have gone through rounds of competition, mergers, alliances, and reorganizations, and the size of civil aviation has become larger and larger. According to data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the United States' air passenger volume in 2017 was 840 million, accounting for more than 20% of the global market share, ranking first in the world, 1.5 times that of China, which ranks second. In addition to good tourism resources and a solid foundation for industrial development, the development of the U.S. tourism industry also benefits from a relatively mature government management system. Compared with the current China, the U.S. government authorities pay more attention to the export of tourism services. Initially, the competent authority for the development of the US tourism industry was the United States Travel and Tourism Administration. In 1996, the US government closed it and assigned some of its functions to the International Trade Administration. At the same time, the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO), which is currently affiliated with the US Department of Commerce, was established as the new tourism authority. The International Trade Administration is committed to promoting the export of services and goods in the non-agricultural sector, and tourism service exports are also included in it. This tourism administrative management model directly shows that the United States attaches great importance to tourism service exports. At the same time, in addition to the functions of tourism policy planning and statistics, the International Tourism Office also clearly defines its function of providing tourism enterprises with technical assistance for tourism service exports in order to increase the number of international tourists received by the United States and promote the export of US tourism services. In addition, many other government agencies also play an active role in promoting the export of tourism services. For example, the US State Department is responsible for issuing passports, the Customs is responsible for monitoring international travel, and the National Maritime Commission is responsible for ship management. Finally, the United States has a number of internationally authoritative industry associations. In addition to the American Society of Travel Agents (ASTA) mentioned above, there are also the American Travel Association (TIA), the International Association of Amusement Parks and Attractions (IAAPA), the American Hotel and Lodging Association (AH&MA), etc. They directly serve tourism enterprises and play an important role in coordinating the relationship between relevant departments and various industries. They focus on the enterprise level to improve the level of international tourist reception services and increase international tourist spending, thereby promoting the export of tourism service trade. China and the United States are both major countries in tourism service trade, and China's tourism service trade exports are growing slowly. According to statistics from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism Data Center, in 2018, China received a total of 141 million inbound tourists, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. Among them, the number of overnight tourists was 62.9 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. In 2017, according to the ranking of the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), China ranked fourth in the world in terms of inbound tourism reception (2017), second only to the United States, which ranked third. According to the balance of payments of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, China's tourism service exports amounted to only US$39.5 billion. However, this calculation does not take into account the expenditures of a large number of high-frequency tourists from Hong Kong and Macao holding mainland bank cards in the mainland, the airfare expenditures of more than 20 million inbound tourists taking flights of Chinese airlines, and the expenditures of tourists staying for 3 months to 1 year who were omitted in the supplementary sampling survey. After supplementing the expenditures of these inbound tourists, the Data Center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism re-estimated the export value of tourism service trade in 2018 to US$127.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. China's imports of tourism services have maintained rapid growth. China has continued to be the world's largest source market for international tourism since 2012, and has maintained rapid growth for nearly 20 years. In 2018, the number of Chinese outbound tourists reached 149 million, exceeding the number of inbound tourists for the first time. According to statistics from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in 2018, China's imports of tourism services reached US$276.8 billion. Among them, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange multiplied the total amount of all Chinese bank card swipes abroad and the relevant foreign exchange declaration amount by 0.6 (assuming that 40% of Chinese travelers' overseas expenses are paid in cash) as my country's tourism service trade expenditure, which means that all types of expenses of groups such as studying abroad, medical treatment, working, overseas property, and overseas financial management, and those who stay for more than one year, are all included, and the tourism service trade expenditure is significantly magnified. After deducting non-tourism expenses such as overseas study, medical treatment, work, property and financial investment, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism Data Center calculated that the import value of tourism service trade in 2018 was US$130.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, based on the outbound tourism sampling survey data. China's tourism service trade deficit At present, China's outbound tourism is in a period of rapid development. It is a major importer of global tourism service trade. In 2018, China's tourism service trade began to have a real deficit. According to the calculation of the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, China's tourism trade imports have exceeded exports. According to the data of the balance of payments, China has been the world's largest importer of tourism services since 2012. In 2018, China's tourism service imports far exceeded the second-ranked United States. As the world's largest importer of tourism services, China is the largest source market for Thailand, Japan, Australia and other countries. It has made outstanding contributions to the global tourism economy, especially the rapid recovery and steady growth after the 2008 financial crisis. The United States is the world's largest exporter of tourism services. According to the data of the U.S. Office of Travel and Tourism, in 2018, the United States received a total of 79.62 million international tourists, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, accounting for 5.8% of the total number of international tourists received worldwide. In the same year, the total export of travel and tourism-related services was US$256.1 billion (+1.8%), ranking first in the world. The total export of tourism excluding transportation costs accounted for 15.7% of the world. This proportion is 4.5 times the market share of international tourism reception, which is enough to show that the level of spending by international tourists in the United States is far higher than the global average. For overseas tourists (excluding Canada and Mexico), the average per capita expenditure on a single trip to the United States is US$2,682, and the average stay in the United States is as long as 17.5 nights. The higher per capita travel expenditure and longer stay time directly indicate that the United States has a strong attraction for international tourists. The United States is also a major importer of tourism services, ranking second in the world. According to data from the U.S. Office of Travel and Tourism (as shown in Table 1), in 2018, the United States had a total of 93.04 million outbound tourists, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. In the same year, the United States imported US$186.5 billion in tourism-related services, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. Compared with the export of tourism services, although the number of outbound tourists in the United States is greater than the number of inbound tourists, the export of tourism services in the United States is still far higher than the import of tourism services. The total surplus of tourism services trade is US$6.96 million, but the total surplus of tourism services trade has been declining for nearly three years.The tourism industry in the United States started early and has a solid industrial foundation. The tourism industry in the United States has an early development history, rich tourism resources and a solid industrial foundation. The immigrant culture and spirit of adventure in the United States have made the American people naturally inclined to travel and tour. The United States started the tourism industry in the modern sense in the late 19th century and early 20th century. With the acceleration of industrialization and the increase of people's income, the general public quickly joined the ranks of tourists. In addition, tourism companies have the awareness of serving the "masses" from the beginning. The United States entered the era of mass tourism earlier than other parts of the world. In terms of tourism resources, like China, the United States has very rich tourism resources. The United States has a complete management and maintenance system for national parks and forest parks, which provide tourists with a wide range of rest spaces and convenient facilities. Yellowstone Park, the Grand Canyon of Colorado, Niagara Falls, etc. are well known to tourists from all over the world. According to information released by the National Park Service, the US National Park System includes 419 management and protection units such as parks, memorials, historical sites and rivers, receiving more than 330 million visitors each year; according to information released by the US Forest Service of the US Department of Agriculture, there are 154 national forest parks and 20 national grasslands in the United States. The forests, wetlands, grasslands and other protected areas managed by them cover an area of ​​780,000 square kilometers, accounting for 8% of the total land area. Among them, 122 ski resorts receive 27 million visitors each year. In addition, the United States has the largest number of museums in the world, more than 35,000, among which the Metropolitan Museum of Art is world-famous and receives tens of millions of visitors each year. The United States is also the originator of theme parks. The world-renowned Disneyland and Universal Studios have landed in many countries. According to statistics, in 2016, the number of tourists received by various parks under Disney was nearly 140 million worldwide. Travel services, accommodation and transportation are the three pillar industries of the tourism industry. The US travel service industry has developed distribution channels and industry organizations. According to statistics from the U.S. Department of Labor, in 2016, there were 82,000 travel agencies of all kinds in the United States, 2.5 times the number of travel agencies in China (32,000). The online tourism industry in the United States is very developed, with the highest penetration rate in the world, exceeding 50%, much higher than that in China (less than 20%). It has the world's largest online travel agent (OTA) Expedia, as well as OTAs such as priceline and booking that have a high global market share, and the world's largest UGC online travel community Tripadvisor. In addition, the United States also has the world's largest travel service association organization, the American Society of Travel Agents (ASTA), whose members are distributed in more than 140 countries around the world. The U.S. accommodation industry began to embark on the path of scale, standardization and group development in the 1950s, and led the service standards and product innovation of the global accommodation industry. According to data released by the American Hotel & Lodging Association (AHLA), there are more than 50,000 accommodation facilities of all kinds in the United States. The global hotel chain group ranking of the famous accommodation industry magazine "Hotel" shows that in 2018, despite competition from hotels in other countries such as China, four hotel chain groups in the United States still entered the top ten list. Unlike Chinese hotel brands that are concentrated in mid-range and economy hotels, American brand hotel groups such as Marriott, Hilton, and Wyndham have always been leaders in the global high-end hotel market. The U.S. civil aviation industry is also relatively mature. Since the deregulation began in 1978, with the full play of the market competition mechanism, American civil aviation companies have gone through rounds of competition, mergers, alliances, and reorganizations, and the size of civil aviation has become larger and larger. According to data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the United States' air passenger volume in 2017 was 840 million, accounting for more than 20% of the global market share, ranking first in the world, 1.5 times that of China, which ranks second. In addition to good tourism resources and a solid foundation for industrial development, the development of the U.S. tourism industry also benefits from a relatively mature government management system. Compared with the current China, the U.S. government authorities pay more attention to the export of tourism services. Initially, the competent authority for the development of the US tourism industry was the United States Travel and Tourism Administration. In 1996, the US government closed it and assigned some of its functions to the International Trade Administration. At the same time, the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO), which is currently affiliated with the US Department of Commerce, was established as the new tourism authority. The International Trade Administration is committed to promoting the export of services and goods in the non-agricultural sector, and tourism service exports are also included in it. This tourism administrative management model directly shows that the United States attaches great importance to tourism service exports. At the same time, in addition to the functions of tourism policy planning and statistics, the International Tourism Office also clearly defines its function of providing tourism enterprises with technical assistance for tourism service exports in order to increase the number of international tourists received by the United States and promote the export of US tourism services. In addition, many other government agencies also play an active role in promoting the export of tourism services. For example, the US State Department is responsible for issuing passports, the Customs is responsible for monitoring international travel, and the National Maritime Commission is responsible for ship management. Finally, the United States has a number of internationally authoritative industry associations. In addition to the American Society of Travel Agents (ASTA) mentioned above, there are also the American Travel Association (TIA), the International Association of Amusement Parks and Attractions (IAAPA), the American Hotel and Lodging Association (AH&MA), etc. They directly serve tourism enterprises and play an important role in coordinating the relationship between relevant departments and various industries. They focus on the enterprise level to improve the level of international tourist reception services and increase international tourist spending, thereby promoting the export of tourism service trade. China and the United States are both major countries in tourism service trade, and China's tourism service trade exports are growing slowly. According to statistics from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism Data Center, in 2018, China received a total of 141 million inbound tourists, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. Among them, the number of overnight tourists was 62.9 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. In 2017, according to the ranking of the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), China ranked fourth in the world in terms of inbound tourism reception (2017), second only to the United States, which ranked third. According to the balance of payments of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, China's tourism service exports amounted to only US$39.5 billion. However, this calculation does not take into account the expenditures of a large number of high-frequency tourists from Hong Kong and Macao holding mainland bank cards in the mainland, the airfare expenditures of more than 20 million inbound tourists taking flights of Chinese airlines, and the expenditures of tourists staying for 3 months to 1 year who were omitted in the supplementary sampling survey. After supplementing the expenditures of these inbound tourists, the Data Center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism re-estimated the export value of tourism service trade in 2018 to US$127.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. China's imports of tourism services have maintained rapid growth. China has continued to be the world's largest source market for international tourism since 2012, and has maintained rapid growth for nearly 20 years. In 2018, the number of Chinese outbound tourists reached 149 million, exceeding the number of inbound tourists for the first time. According to statistics from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in 2018, China's imports of tourism services reached US$276.8 billion. Among them, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange multiplied the total amount of all Chinese bank card swipes abroad and the relevant foreign exchange declaration amount by 0.6 (assuming that 40% of Chinese travelers' overseas expenses are paid in cash) as my country's tourism service trade expenditure, which means that all types of expenses of groups such as studying abroad, medical treatment, working, overseas property, and overseas financial management, and those who stay for more than one year, are all included, and the tourism service trade expenditure is significantly magnified. After deducting non-tourism expenses such as overseas study, medical treatment, work, property and financial investment, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism Data Center calculated that the import value of tourism service trade in 2018 was US$130.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, based on the outbound tourism sampling survey data. China's tourism service trade deficit At present, China's outbound tourism is in a period of rapid development. It is a major importer of global tourism service trade. In 2018, China's tourism service trade began to have a real deficit. According to the calculation of the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, China's tourism trade imports have exceeded exports. According to the data of the balance of payments, China has been the world's largest importer of tourism services since 2012. In 2018, China's tourism service imports far exceeded the second-ranked United States. As the world's largest importer of tourism services, China is the largest source market for Thailand, Japan, Australia and other countries. It has made outstanding contributions to the global tourism economy, especially the rapid recovery and steady growth after the 2008 financial crisis. The United States is the world's largest exporter of tourism services. According to the data of the U.S. Office of Travel and Tourism, in 2018, the United States received a total of 79.62 million international tourists, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, accounting for 5.8% of the total number of international tourists received worldwide. In the same year, the total export of travel and tourism-related services was US$256.1 billion (+1.8%), ranking first in the world. The total export of tourism excluding transportation costs accounted for 15.7% of the world. This proportion is 4.5 times the market share of international tourism reception, which is enough to show that the level of spending by international tourists in the United States is far higher than the global average. For overseas tourists (excluding Canada and Mexico), the average per capita expenditure on a single trip to the United States is US$2,682, and the average stay in the United States is as long as 17.5 nights. The higher per capita travel expenditure and longer stay time directly indicate that the United States has a strong attraction for international tourists. The United States is also a major importer of tourism services, ranking second in the world. According to data from the U.S. Office of Travel and Tourism (as shown in Table 1), in 2018, the United States had a total of 93.04 million outbound tourists, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. In the same year, the United States imported US$186.5 billion in tourism-related services, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. Compared with the export of tourism services, although the number of outbound tourists in the United States is greater than the number of inbound tourists, the export of tourism services in the United States is still far higher than the import of tourism services. The total surplus of tourism services trade is US$6.96 million, but the total surplus of tourism services trade has been declining for nearly three years.

In terms of the scale of international tourism, the absolute number of inbound and outbound tourists in China exceeds that of the United States, but the import and export volume of tourism services is lower than that of the United States, especially the total export volume of tourism services. China's tourism service exports are less than half of that of the United States. According to the data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, China's tourism service exports are less than one-sixth of that of the United States. In terms of the competitiveness of tourism service trade, the United States' tourism service trade obviously has stronger international competitiveness. Service trade competitiveness can usually be measured by market share and competitiveness index. Among them, market share refers to the proportion of a country's tourism service exports in global tourism service exports. The United States ranks first in the world in tourism service exports, and its market share is far higher than that of China. The trade competitiveness index (TC) is the proportion of the net export volume of an economy's products to its total imports and exports, and is also an important indicator for measuring the international competitiveness of an economy's products. The index can eliminate the influence of factors such as price levels and economic size, making the trade competitiveness indexes of different economies horizontally comparable [2]. Based on the tourism statistics released by China and the United States, the tourism service trade competitiveness index of the United States is positive, while that of China is negative. The tourism service trade of the United States is obviously more internationally competitive. China and the United States are important tourism service trade partners. In 2007, China and the United States jointly initiated and established the China-US Tourism High-level Dialogue Mechanism, which built an important exchange platform for the two countries. On December 6, 2007, China and the United States signed the "Memorandum of Understanding on Tourism Cooperation". From 2008 to 2012, my country gradually opened up ADS group travel to the United States for citizens of various provinces, cities and autonomous regions. In recent years, the two sides have issued multiple round-trip visas with a validity of 10 years, opened new direct flights between China and the United States, and the China-US Tourism Year in 2016, which have created extremely favorable conditions for tourists from the two countries to visit each other. China and the United States are important source markets for each other. According to the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, in 2018, 2.48 million Americans traveled to China, making the United States China's fifth largest foreign source market (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, China), the largest long-distance source market, and accounting for 8.1% of China's foreign inbound tourism market. If we follow the statistics of overnight tourists, the United States is the fourth largest foreign source market. At the same time, China is also an important source market for the United States. According to data from the U.S. Office of Travel and Tourism, in 2018, 2.99 million Chinese tourists visited the United States, making it the third largest overseas source market for the United States (excluding Canada and Mexico), accounting for 7.5% of the U.S. overseas source market. According to historical data (see Figure 1), over the past 20 years, American tourism to China has been growing steadily, with an average annual growth rate of 6.6%. During the same period, Chinese tourism to the United States has been growing rapidly, with the number of Chinese tourists to the United States increasing from less than 200,000 in 1999 to nearly 3 million in 2018, with an average annual growth rate of 15.6%. After 2014, the number of Chinese tourists to the United States continued to exceed the number of American tourists to China, but in 2018, due to the impact of the Sino-US trade war and the tightening of US visa policies, the number of Chinese tourists to the United States showed a significant decline, down 5.7% year-on-year.

China is in a deficit position in the tourism trade between China and the United States, and the deficit is large (see Table 2). According to the sampling survey data of inbound tourists by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, in 2017, the average daily expenditure of American tourists in China was US$282, and the average number of days of stay was 11.3 days. In the same year, there were 2.309 million American tourists visiting China. Based on the above data, it can be estimated that in 2017, the total expenditure of American tourists in China was US$7.36 billion, that is, China's tourism service exports to the United States were US$7.36 billion. It can also be estimated that in 2016 and 2015, China's tourism service exports to the United States were US$8.47 billion and US$6.51 billion, respectively, both less than US$10 billion. According to statistics from the U.S. Office of Travel and Tourism, the U.S. tourism service exports to China exceeded US$30 billion in 2015 and reached US$36.3 billion in 2018. In the tourism service trade between China and the United States, China is in a deficit position, and the deficit is more than US$20 billion. Of course, this huge deficit in tourism service trade comes partly from the different calculation methods between China and the United States, with China's calculation method for tourism service exports to the United States being relatively narrower. It is worth noting that in 2017, although the number of American tourists to China maintained positive growth (+2.7%), China's service trade exports to the United States fell significantly (-13.1%); in contrast, in 2018, while the number of Chinese tourists to the United States declined (-5.7%), the United States' tourism service trade exports to China still maintained positive growth (+3%), which is enough to show that the average expenditure of Chinese tourists to the United States is much higher than that of American tourists in China, and the United States is in an advantageous position in the tourism service trade between China and the United States.

Prospects and suggestions for China-US tourism service trade Affected by factors such as the China-US trade war, the scale of China-US tourism exchanges may continue to decline in the short term. On the one hand, the number of Chinese tourists to the United States will continue to decline. In 2018, the number of Chinese tourists to the United States saw a rare decline. According to a survey by the U.S. Office of Travel and Tourism, in 2018, more than 40% of Chinese tourists to the United States were for business/conference purposes, and these tourists will be directly affected by the negative impact of the China-US trade war. On June 4, 2019, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a safety reminder for traveling to the United States, and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued a safety reminder for traveling to the United States. The official public safety reminder will affect Chinese tourists to the United States to a certain extent, especially sightseeing and leisure tourists who are more concerned about safety issues. It can be expected that the number of Chinese tourists to the United States in 2019 will further decline. On the other hand, the number of American tourists to China may decline in the next few years. In 2018, the number of American tourists to China did not decline. This may be because nearly half (47%) of American tourists came to China for sightseeing and leisure vacation. For long-distance travel to China, they often planned and booked their trips half a year or a year in advance. However, if Sino-US relations do not improve this year and in the next few years, they may turn to surrounding tourist destinations. In addition, more than one-third of transactional tourists (for business, conferences, cultural and technological exchanges) will be more directly affected by the Sino-US trade war in the future and decline. In general, since the proportion of transactional tourists in Chinese tourism to the United States (about 45%) is higher than that of transactional tourists in the United States (35%), compared with American tourism to China, Chinese tourism to the United States is more likely to be affected by the Sino-US trade war first. At the same time, the scale of Sino-US tourism service trade is also facing downward pressure. Although the export volume of US tourism service trade to China did not decline in 2018, the increase in the export volume of US tourism service trade to China was limited compared with the previous double-digit growth. If the Sino-US trade war continues in the future, it is likely to stagnate or even decline due to the further decline in the number of Chinese business tourists (for business, conferences, study abroad and medical treatment) who spend more. According to the latest data, in 2017, China's service trade exports to the United States experienced a large decline in services, which was more affected by factors such as rising Chinese tourism prices, fierce competition from neighboring destinations such as Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia, and insufficient innovation in tourism products. Existing data cannot reflect the impact of the Sino-US trade war. However, this impact is likely to be confirmed in the survey data in 2018 and 2019. However, in the long run, the foundation of tourism exchanges between the Chinese and American people is relatively solid, and the demand for mutual visits between the Chinese and American people is relatively rigid. In addition to sightseeing and leisure tourists and business tourists, there are also a large number of tourists between China and the United States for the purpose of visiting relatives and friends. More than 20% of Chinese tourists to the United States and more than 10% of American tourists to China travel for the purpose of visiting relatives and friends. The total number of tourists exceeds 800,000 per year, accounting for 15% of the two-way exchanges between China and the United States. Promoting Sino-US tourism service trade is in the long-term interests of the exchanges between the people of the two countries. Compared with the public exchanges between politicians, professionals, and students, tourism exchanges have incomparable advantages due to their large scale, high frequency, low threshold, and wide range of people involved, providing a broad public foundation for the political and economic exchanges between the two countries. As an important medium for exchanges between the Chinese and American people, tourism can serve as a lubricant for the political and economic frictions between the two countries. Through tourism, the Chinese and American people can experience each other's political, economic, and cultural similarities and differences, which can enhance the understanding and tolerance between the people of the two countries. At present, under the existing conditions, we should also promote the people's exchanges between China and the United States through tourism as much as possible, and promote the tourism service trade. In the future, to further promote the tourism service trade between China and the United States, China and the United States will further strengthen cooperation and enhance consensus. First of all, we must realize that the tourism exchanges between China and the United States help to enhance the political mutual trust between the two countries. The close tourism exchanges and cooperation between China and the United States have prompted the upper side to actively collect and study each other's laws, policies, and plans, and to a certain extent enhance the understanding of each other's political systems, creating conditions for rationally and benevolently viewing each other's relevant strategies and policies. China and the United States are important tourist source markets and destinations for each other. The continuous and smooth development of tourism exchanges and tourism service trade between the two countries cannot be separated from the comprehensive coordination of multiple departments of the two countries, including not only tourism management departments, but also entry and exit management, air traffic, finance and insurance, security and maritime rescue departments of the two countries. Since the 2016 China-US Tourism Year, there have been more and more opportunities for the Chinese and American governments and industry associations to interact with each other. Jointly maintaining the order of the tourism market, coordinating the handling of tourism disputes, and ensuring the safety of tourists can become an important interface for deepening political mutual trust between China and the United States. Secondly, optimize the group tourism market environment of each other. China and the United States are important long-distance tourist source markets for each other. The proportion of group tours is relatively high, especially for Chinese tourists to the United States. According to Tuniu data, the proportion of group tours is as high as 80%. In this context, the group market environment is particularly important. Since China promulgated the "Tourism Law" in 2013, China's tourism regulatory authorities have severely cracked down on various low-cost tour groups. With the pursuit of tourism quality by Chinese outbound tourists, especially for the group market to the United States with a generally higher consumption level, the problem of "zero or negative group fees" has been well controlled. On the other hand, the US group tour market still has an obvious "zero-negative tour fee" problem. Disrupted by low-cost tours, market prices have been lowered, and travel agencies have to make up for costs through "shopping + adding points". The quality of travel services for American tourists in China cannot be guaranteed. To improve the quality of American tourists' travel experience in China, Chinese regulatory authorities should actively cooperate with the US travel industry association to jointly crack down on low-cost tour operators and improve the group tour market environment of each other. Thirdly, continue to promote cooperation between Chinese and American tourism companies in capital, talent and other aspects. The sustainable development of China's tourism service trade fundamentally depends on the trade exchanges between the two companies. China and the United States should continue to promote mutual opening up in the tourism field based on the basic concept of cooperation and win-win, allow each other's tourism companies to conduct travel service business wholly-owned in their own country, and allow them to operate outbound tourism business and directly engage in travel services for citizens of the other country to their own country. Establish a talent sharing mechanism, recognize the qualifications of each other's certified tour guides, and allow each other's tourism professionals to legally engage in tourism reception services for their own people in their own country. Finally, attach importance to the safety of tourists and always put the safety of tourists first. The overall safety environment of a tourist destination is undoubtedly an important consideration for tourists to decide whether they are willing to visit. As a country of etiquette, China has always been enthusiastic about helping foreign tourists and attaches great importance to the safety of foreign tourists in China. However, the recent shooting problem in the United States is more prominent, posing a potential personal safety hazard to foreign tourists. According to statistics, from January to August 2019, there were nearly 34,000 shootings in the United States, almost all over the country. Many countries, including France, New Zealand, Germany, and China, have issued travel warnings to the United States due to the frequent gun violence in the United States. In June 2019, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a safety reminder for traveling to the United States, and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism of China issued a safety reminder for traveling to the United States. The United States needs to take necessary early warning measures to create a safe travel environment for visiting tourists. Author: Liu Xiangyan, Assistant Researcher, International Institute, China Tourism Research Institute; Zhang Tianli, Master's student, Beijing Union University Originally published in "China Tourism Review" 2020 No. 1, with some deletions.Prospects and suggestions for China-US tourism service trade Affected by factors such as the China-US trade war, the scale of China-US tourism exchanges may continue to decline in the short term. On the one hand, the number of Chinese tourists to the United States will continue to decline. In 2018, the number of Chinese tourists to the United States saw a rare decline. According to a survey by the U.S. Office of Travel and Tourism, in 2018, more than 40% of Chinese tourists to the United States were for business/conference purposes, and these tourists will be directly affected by the negative impact of the China-US trade war. On June 4, 2019, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a safety reminder for traveling to the United States, and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued a safety reminder for traveling to the United States. The official public safety reminder will affect Chinese tourists to the United States to a certain extent, especially sightseeing and leisure tourists who are more concerned about safety issues. It can be expected that the number of Chinese tourists to the United States in 2019 will further decline. On the other hand, the number of American tourists to China may decline in the next few years. In 2018, the number of American tourists to China did not decline. This may be because nearly half (47%) of American tourists came to China for sightseeing and leisure vacation. For long-distance travel to China, they often planned and booked their trips half a year or a year in advance. However, if Sino-US relations do not improve this year and in the next few years, they may turn to surrounding tourist destinations. In addition, more than one-third of transactional tourists (for business, conferences, cultural and technological exchanges) will be more directly affected by the Sino-US trade war in the future and decline. In general, since the proportion of transactional tourists in Chinese tourism to the United States (about 45%) is higher than that of transactional tourists in the United States (35%), compared with American tourism to China, Chinese tourism to the United States is more likely to be affected by the Sino-US trade war first. At the same time, the scale of Sino-US tourism service trade is also facing downward pressure. Although the export volume of US tourism service trade to China did not decline in 2018, the increase in the export volume of US tourism service trade to China was limited compared with the previous double-digit growth. If the Sino-US trade war continues in the future, it is likely to stagnate or even decline due to the further decline in the number of Chinese business tourists (for business, conferences, study abroad and medical treatment) who spend more. According to the latest data, in 2017, China's service trade exports to the United States experienced a large decline in services, which was more affected by factors such as rising Chinese tourism prices, fierce competition from neighboring destinations such as Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia, and insufficient innovation in tourism products. Existing data cannot reflect the impact of the Sino-US trade war. However, this impact is likely to be confirmed in the survey data in 2018 and 2019. However, in the long run, the foundation of tourism exchanges between the Chinese and American people is relatively solid, and the demand for mutual visits between the Chinese and American people is relatively rigid. In addition to sightseeing and leisure tourists and business tourists, there are also a large number of tourists between China and the United States for the purpose of visiting relatives and friends. More than 20% of Chinese tourists to the United States and more than 10% of American tourists to China travel for the purpose of visiting relatives and friends. The total number of tourists exceeds 800,000 per year, accounting for 15% of the two-way exchanges between China and the United States. Promoting Sino-US tourism service trade is in the long-term interests of the exchanges between the people of the two countries. Compared with the public exchanges between politicians, professionals, and students, tourism exchanges have incomparable advantages due to their large scale, high frequency, low threshold, and wide range of people involved, providing a broad public foundation for the political and economic exchanges between the two countries. As an important medium for exchanges between the Chinese and American people, tourism can serve as a lubricant for the political and economic frictions between the two countries. Through tourism, the Chinese and American people can experience each other's political, economic, and cultural similarities and differences, which can enhance the understanding and tolerance between the people of the two countries. At present, under the existing conditions, we should also promote the people's exchanges between China and the United States through tourism as much as possible, and promote the tourism service trade. In the future, to further promote the tourism service trade between China and the United States, China and the United States will further strengthen cooperation and enhance consensus. First of all, we must realize that the tourism exchanges between China and the United States help to enhance the political mutual trust between the two countries. The close tourism exchanges and cooperation between China and the United States have prompted the upper side to actively collect and study each other's laws, policies, and plans, and to a certain extent enhance the understanding of each other's political systems, creating conditions for rationally and benevolently viewing each other's relevant strategies and policies. China and the United States are important tourist source markets and destinations for each other. The continuous and smooth development of tourism exchanges and tourism service trade between the two countries cannot be separated from the comprehensive coordination of multiple departments of the two countries, including not only tourism management departments, but also entry and exit management, air traffic, finance and insurance, security and maritime rescue departments of the two countries. Since the 2016 China-US Tourism Year, there have been more and more opportunities for the Chinese and American governments and industry associations to interact with each other. Jointly maintaining the order of the tourism market, coordinating the handling of tourism disputes, and ensuring the safety of tourists can become an important interface for deepening political mutual trust between China and the United States. Secondly, optimize the group tourism market environment of each other. China and the United States are important long-distance tourist source markets for each other. The proportion of group tours is relatively high, especially for Chinese tourists to the United States. According to Tuniu data, the proportion of group tours is as high as 80%. In this context, the group market environment is particularly important. Since China promulgated the "Tourism Law" in 2013, China's tourism regulatory authorities have severely cracked down on various low-cost tour groups. With the pursuit of tourism quality by Chinese outbound tourists, especially for the group market to the United States with a generally higher consumption level, the problem of "zero or negative group fees" has been well controlled. On the other hand, the US group tour market still has an obvious "zero-negative tour fee" problem. Disrupted by low-cost tours, market prices have been lowered, and travel agencies have to make up for costs through "shopping + adding points". The quality of travel services for American tourists in China cannot be guaranteed. To improve the quality of American tourists' travel experience in China, Chinese regulatory authorities should actively cooperate with the US travel industry association to jointly crack down on low-cost tour operators and improve the group tour market environment of each other. Thirdly, continue to promote cooperation between Chinese and American tourism companies in capital, talent and other aspects. The sustainable development of China's tourism service trade fundamentally depends on the trade exchanges between the two companies. China and the United States should continue to promote mutual opening up in the tourism field based on the basic concept of cooperation and win-win, allow each other's tourism companies to conduct travel service business wholly-owned in their own country, and allow them to operate outbound tourism business and directly engage in travel services for citizens of the other country to their own country. Establish a talent sharing mechanism, recognize the qualifications of each other's certified tour guides, and allow each other's tourism professionals to legally engage in tourism reception services for their own people in their own country. Finally, attach importance to the safety of tourists and always put the safety of tourists first. The overall safety environment of a tourist destination is undoubtedly an important consideration for tourists to decide whether they are willing to visit. As a country of etiquette, China has always been enthusiastic about helping foreign tourists and attaches great importance to the safety of foreign tourists in China. However, the recent shooting problem in the United States is more prominent, posing a potential personal safety hazard to foreign tourists. According to statistics, from January to August 2019, there were nearly 34,000 shootings in the United States, almost all over the country. Many countries, including France, New Zealand, Germany, and China, have issued travel warnings to the United States due to the frequent gun violence in the United States. In June 2019, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a safety reminder for traveling to the United States, and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism of China issued a safety reminder for traveling to the United States. The United States needs to take necessary early warning measures to create a safe travel environment for visiting tourists. Author: Liu Xiangyan, Assistant Researcher, International Institute, China Tourism Research Institute; Zhang Tianli, Master's student, Beijing Union University Originally published in "China Tourism Review" 2020 No. 1, with some deletions.