Analysis of tourism economic operation in the first quarter of 2012 and trend forecast for the first half of the year

Analysis of the overall tourism economy situation: The domestic tourism policy environment continues to be favorable, and the pressure to expand inbound tourism has increased. The three major markets still maintain a growth pattern of "two highs and one level". The year-on-year growth rate of national tourism has slowed down, with holidays still being the main driving factor, and leisure products receiving attention; The tourism industry is growing synchronously with the market, and the pace of business innovation is accelerating. The eastern region focuses on market innovation, while the central and western regions are more investment driven. Regional cooperation and pan regional competition coexist. In the first half of this year, the policy environment has steadily improved, there is greater room for industrial development, and the tourism economy will continue to maintain steady growth. 1、 Analysis of Tourism Economy Operation in the First Quarter of 2012: The tourism economy was relatively prosperous in the first quarter, with investment, consumption, and inbound tourism all steadily developing to drive growth. The structural contradictions in both time and space, as well as the pressure of changing development modes, still exist, and market innovation and policy innovation are accelerating. （1） Development environment: The domestic policy environment continues to be favorable, and the pressure on inbound tourism has increased. The overall policy environment for tourism development is favorable. Recently, the country has successively introduced policies to support the development of the real economy and small and micro enterprises. Seven ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Several Opinions on Financial Support for Accelerating the Development of Tourism Industry", and the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Further Implementing the Preferential Policies for Youth Ticket Prices", which has created conditions for further release of tourism demand. The global economic outlook remains uncertain, and China's inbound tourism is facing greater competitive pressure. Although there were some good signs of global economic recovery in 2012, such as a significant recovery in the US economy in the first quarter and a gradual stabilization of the European debt crisis, the announcement of sanctions against Iran and Syria by countries such as the US and Europe has brought unstable expectations to the world's politics and economy. At the beginning of the new year, various countries have significantly increased their support for the tourism industry. The United States, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and others have all introduced development strategies guided by promoting inbound tourism, objectively intensifying the international tourism competition landscape. The growth prospects of China's inbound tourism market are even more pessimistic. （2） Market fundamentals: Maintaining the pattern of "two highs and one level", the growth rate of national tourism has slowed down, and holidays are still the main driving factor. Leisure products have attracted attention. It is expected that the total number of tourists received in the first quarter of 2012 will be 900 million, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and the total tourism revenue will be 714.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%. Domestic tourism market: It is expected that there will be 870 million domestic tourists in the first quarter of 2012, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%; Domestic tourism revenue reached 636.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%. Inbound tourism market: It is expected that the number of inbound tourists in the first quarter will be about 32.1 million, a year-on-year increase of 1%; The number of overnight tourists entering the country was about 13.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 1%. The foreign exchange revenue from tourism is about 11 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 1%. Outbound tourism market: It is expected that the number of outbound tourists in the first quarter will be about 18.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%. （3） Industry fundamentals: The industry and market are growing synchronously, and the pace of business innovation is accelerating. In the first quarter, the tourism industry prosperity index was 123.92, which is at a "relatively prosperous" level, with a slight decrease compared to the same period. From the perspective of various industries, travel agencies, hotels, and scenic spots are all at a "relatively prosperous" level, with prosperity indices of 122.2, 132.3, and 122.4, respectively. Comprehensive enterprises are at a "relatively prosperous" level, with a prosperity index of 118.8. From the perspective of business indicators, the number of visitors, tourism prices, operating income, operating costs, profits and taxes, tourism industry, and personnel salaries are all at a "relatively prosperous" level. The data shows that the tourism industry has maintained a trend of synchronous growth with the market. In terms of tourism investment, overall it still maintains a relatively fast growth rate. The pace of innovation in tourism formats is accelerating. High end tourism is beginning to receive industry attention. （4） Regional tourism: The eastern region focuses on market innovation, while the central and western regions place more emphasis on investment driven development. Regional cooperation and pan regional competition coexist. In the first quarter, the gap in tourism industry prosperity among the eastern, central, and western regions narrowed, with prosperity indices of 122.23, 122.75, and 123.7, respectively, at a "relatively prosperous" level. In terms of regional pattern, the market-oriented innovation and policy implementation efforts are more evident in the eastern region. The development mode of the western region still emphasizes investment driven development. Regional cooperation and pan regional competition coexist. 2、 The trend forecast for the first half of 2012 shows a steady improvement in the development environment of the tourism economy. This year, the country will be committed to expanding consumer demand, accelerating the construction of a long-term mechanism for expanding consumption, vigorously adjusting the income distribution pattern, increasing the income of low - and middle-income earners, improving residents' consumption ability, and also improving policies to encourage residents' consumption. The implementation of these policies and measures will directly support the development of the tourism industry. The National Tourism and Leisure Outline is expected to be released soon, and the government work report proposes to encourage cultural, tourism, fitness and other consumption, and implement a paid vacation system. A series of policies introduced earlier will gradually demonstrate their policy effects in promoting economic development, such as the financial industry's support for tourism development jointly issued by seven ministries and commissions, which will promote the IPO of a number of tourism enterprises. Internationally, the US economy is beginning to recover, and systemic risks in Europe are temporarily suspended. Although some unstable factors still exist, overall, the worst period may be coming to an end. The World Tourism Organization predicts that the global tourism industry will continue to grow in 2012, although the growth rate will slow down, the number of international tourists will continue to climb at a rate of 3% -4%, and will exceed 1 billion people. The leading indicators for tourism are relatively optimistic. As of March 18th, the survey shows that the willingness of Chinese residents to travel is still as high as 81.6%. The tourism booking prosperity index is 123.63, the tourism industry entrepreneur confidence index is 135.65, and the tourism investment index is 123.04, all at a "relatively prosperous" level, with the latter two being higher than the same period last year. There were many tourist hotspots in the first half of the year. The theme of "Happy Health Tour" will promote tourism and leisure products such as health, wellness, and elderly care, and the integration of tourism and culture will launch more diverse cultural tourism products. The arrival of the Qingming Festival holiday will announce the start of the annual tourism peak season, ushering in a wave of short-term tourism. On May 19th, Tourism Day will form a nationwide public opinion peak advocating tourism and leisure. Development trend prediction: It is expected that in the first half of 2012, the total tourism revenue will be about 1.22 trillion yuan, an increase of about 12%. Among them, the number of domestic tourists is about 1.5 billion, an increase of 10.5%; Domestic tourism revenue is about 1 trillion yuan, an increase of 13%; The number of inbound tourists is about 67.5 million, an increase of 1.8%; The number of overnight tourists entering the country is about 28.6 million, an increase of 2.1%; Tourism foreign exchange revenue is about 24 billion US dollars, an increase of 2.8%; The number of outbound tourists is about 37 million, an increase of 15%.