Research results of 2012 "China Tourism Economy Blue Book (No.4)"

In 2012, the tourism economy will run smoothly at a high level, and expanding consumption and changing modes will become the strategic direction.

On the morning of January 10, 2012, the "2011 Tourism Economy Operation Analysis and 2012 Development Forecast, as well as the Results Release Conference of the" China Tourism Economy Blue Book (No.4) ", hosted by the China Tourism Research Institute and co organized by the Tourism Channel of People's Daily Online, was held in the studio of People's Daily Online. The China Tourism Research Institute has released relevant research results on the operation status of China's tourism economy in 2011 and the development situation in 2012. The latest research results from the China Tourism Research Institute indicate that although the international environment was very severe in 2011 and China's economic growth rate slowed down, the national tourism industry has done a lot of work around the national strategic deployment and the implementation of the "Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Development of Tourism Industry", achieving good results in the overall stable and rapid development of the tourism economy. The total tourism revenue is expected to grow by as much as 18% year-on-year. The tourism market presents a pattern of "two highs and one level", with domestic and outbound tourism maintaining a rapid growth trend, and inbound tourism slightly increasing. It is expected that the number of domestic tourists in 2011 will be about 2.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%; Domestic tourism revenue is about 1.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%. The number of inbound tourists reached 134 million, a year-on-year increase of 1%; The foreign exchange revenue from tourism was 46.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. The number of outbound tourists reached 70 million, a year-on-year increase of 22%; Outbound tourism costs 69 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 25%. The trade deficit in tourism services has further widened, reaching 22.5 billion US dollars. The overall operation of the tourism industry is in a satisfactory "relatively prosperous" range, with good corporate performance and a rebound in tourist satisfaction. The prosperity of travel agencies, hotels, scenic spots, and comprehensive tourism enterprises has remained at a "relatively prosperous" level, with prosperity indices of 129.97, 134.36, 134.90, and 131.37, respectively. Tourist satisfaction has gradually rebounded since hitting its lowest point in the first quarter, and the national tourist satisfaction index has reached a good level of 80.46 in the third quarter. The China Tourism Research Institute believes that in 2012, the overall operation of China's tourism economy will still maintain a relatively fast growth pattern of "two highs and one level". The development of domestic and outbound tourism is relatively optimistic, while the development of inbound tourism will continue to maintain a steady growth momentum. It is expected that China's total tourism revenue will reach 2.4 trillion yuan in 2012, a year-on-year increase of 9%. The number of domestic tourists reached 2.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%; Domestic tourism revenue reached 2.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%. The number of inbound tourists reached 136 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%; Tourism foreign exchange revenue was 47 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. The number of outbound tourists reached 78.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%; Outbound tourism costs 80 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 16.0%. The trade deficit in tourism services continues to widen, reaching 33 billion US dollars. In terms of policy recommendations, the China Tourism Research Institute has proposed to prioritize expanding tourism consumption, actively cultivating new business models, and improving the quality of industrial development. We will continue to implement the State Council's Opinions on Accelerating the Development of the Tourism Industry and carry out the 12th Five Year Plan.

Tourism development mode shows initial signs of transformation

From the perspective of market demand, policy stimulus has entered a normalized development stage. Whether in terms of population or consumption, the proportion of urban residents in my country's domestic tourism has been steadily increasing, especially urban residents' tourism consumption has accounted for 3/4 of domestic tourism income. At the same time, the proportion of urban residents' tourism expenditure in their disposable income has been stable at around 10% for many years, indicating that tourism has become a daily lifestyle for urban residents. Urban residents' tourism consumption will more often show a normalized growth mechanism, that is, growth with economic growth. The additional growth of the tourism economy is mainly due to the increase in the consumption rate of rural residents and the transformation of rural residents into urban residents. From the perspective of industrial development, it has moved from scale expansion to connotation growth. First, format innovation based on mass market demand has become a key force for industrial growth. On September 13, 2011, Fortune magazine announced the 2011 global "100 fastest growing companies" rankings, with Ctrip and Home Inns ranking second and third among China's fastest growing companies. These two companies are typical representatives of online travel services and economy hotels, two areas in which China's tourism industry has developed fastest in recent years. Secondly, the supporting role of modern technologies such as the Internet and mobile communications in tourism format innovation has become more prominent. The construction of smart tourism cities, smart scenic spots, and smart tourism enterprises is in full swing. Large e-commerce companies such as Taobao, Tencent, and Baidu have successively entered the online tourism market, and more and newer business formats are being nurtured in cross-border integration. Finally, the marketization of tourism enterprises is becoming more and more complete. In 2011, mergers and acquisitions in the tourism field frequently occurred, and modern business models were more widely used in tourism enterprises. From the perspective of regional tourism development, although the imbalanced pattern dominated by the eastern region continues, the gap between the development of inbound tourism in the central and western regions and the eastern region is narrowing. Restricted by economic activities and the lack of large ports, the provinces (cities) in the central and western regions still maintain a large gap with the eastern region in terms of total reception volume, and the provinces (cities) in the eastern region still occupy a clear advantage in terms of volume. However, in terms of growth rate, Qinghai, Sichuan, Hubei, Shaanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Chongqing, Jiangxi, Shaanxi, Guangxi and other provinces and cities in the central and western regions occupy the top ten of all provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in the country, showing the huge development potential of inbound tourism in the central and western regions.

Four major issues need attention

First, tourism investment needs scientific guidance. Tourism investment generally pursues large-scale and high consumption, and the types of investment projects are similar, which affects the sustainable development of tourism projects. Many film and television cities, golf courses, etc. are operating at a loss, and some tourism real estate projects are also difficult to recover their investments. At the same time, the demand of the mass tourism market cannot be effectively met. Second, the service system for individual tourists still needs to be strengthened. my country's tourism industry has entered a stage of comprehensive development of mass tourism, and the trend of personalized and diversified tourism demand has become more obvious. The existing tourism products and business models are difficult to adapt to the new needs of the market. Moreover, from the perspective of the work of the tourism department, it is accustomed to focusing on group tourism as the focus of work, and public services for individual tourists are still relatively lacking. Third, the inbound tourism market is weak in growth. The continued downturn in the inbound market is certainly mainly due to the unfavorable international economic situation, but the lack of a deep understanding of the global tourism market and the outdated and rigid marketing methods are also important reasons. Fourth, tourism safety issues still deserve attention. The expansion of the market scale will inevitably highlight the importance of safety issues, especially the safety of outdoor sports travel and the protection of the rights and interests of outbound tourists.

Multi-pronged approach to expand tourism consumption

First, we need to further improve the tourism product system. We need to continue to do a good job in the development of red tourism products, strengthen the transmission of the socialist core values of red tourism, strengthen the development of products that meet the needs of the youth market, and promote the combination of red tourism with ecotourism, study tourism, etc. We need to continue to do a good job in the development of rural tourism products, adhere to the combination of rural tourism development and the solution of the "three rural" issues, and promote the transformation and upgrading of rural tourism products. We need to strengthen the excavation of cultural tourism resources, actively develop tourism performances, tourism entertainment, and tourism cultural festivals, and promote the in-depth integration of tourism and culture at multiple levels. We need to formulate a national holiday tourism development plan as soon as possible, accelerate the development of leisure and vacation products, and strengthen leisure and vacation guidance. We need to vigorously develop facilities and services such as cruise home ports, self-driving camps, RV camps, motels, and car rentals that are compatible with the new needs of tourism and leisure. We need to pay active attention to the development of aerospace tourism, science and technology tourism, etc. Secondly, we need to increase the development of the farmers' tourism market and the elderly tourism market. We need to promote "tourism to the countryside", establish a farmers' tourism consultation service center, improve farmers' awareness of traveling, and cultivate new consumption hotspots for rural residents. We need to strengthen the standardization and guidance of elderly care bases, etc., and promote the development of elderly care tourism products. Relying on the improvement of the inter-city transportation system, we will increase joint publicity and promotion and the connection of tourist routes, jointly standardize market management, improve service quality, promote the development of the short-distance tourism market, and increase the depth and breadth of the short-distance tourism market. Finally, we must vigorously develop a positive tourism and leisure culture. In conjunction with the theme year ("2012 China Happy and Healthy Tour"), China Tourism Day, etc., we will expand the publicity scale of "Quality Tourism, Accompany You on Your Journey", carry out large-scale public welfare publicity activities across the country, and create a tourism and leisure atmosphere. We will promote the release of the "National Tourism and Leisure Outline" as soon as possible, encourage various places to carry out various types of tourism and leisure activities based on their own practices, promote the inclusion of tourism and leisure education in quality education and citizen education, and form a good atmosphere of positive and healthy leisure in the whole society.

"Analysis of China's Tourism Economic Operation in 2011 and Development Forecast in 2012" was published

It is reported that the book "Analysis of China's Tourism Economic Operation in 2011 and Development Forecast for 2012" compiled by the China Tourism Academy has recently been published by China Tourism Publishing House. This book is the fourth volume of the "Blue Book on China's Tourism Economy", a major research result launched annually by the China Research Institute. Based on the statistical data of the National Tourism Administration and a series of research results of the China Tourism Academy, we adhere to the method of combining quantitative and qualitative analysis, and strive to provide intellectual support for the development of the industry. The report conducted a detailed analysis of the operating status and development characteristics of the tourism economy in 2011, analyzed and predicted the development indicators and innovation orientation in 2012, and put forward a number of policy designs and work suggestions.

Note: Explanation on the calculation of tourism revenue growth rate in "Analysis of China's Tourism Economic Operation in 2011 and Development Forecast in 2012" In the first quarter of 2011, the statistical department adjusted the domestic tourism sampling survey method. First, it changed from the previous household survey to telephone survey, and second, it changed from counting the number of tourists and expenditures of urban and rural residents according to the household population to counting the permanent population. After the change of caliber, the domestic tourism revenue and total revenue obtained have increased significantly. Due to the different calibers, the statistical data of 2010 and 2011 cannot be directly compared. In order to make the data comparable, we have adjusted the base of 2010 by comprehensively considering the change of caliber and the development of the tourism industry in recent years. According to the new caliber, the domestic tourism revenue in 2010 was adjusted to 1.57 trillion yuan, and the total tourism revenue was adjusted to 1.87 trillion yuan. By comparing our forecasts for 2011 domestic tourism revenue and total revenue (RMB 1.9 trillion and RMB 2.2 trillion respectively), we can calculate a more realistic growth rate, namely, domestic tourism revenue will increase by 21% and total tourism revenue will increase by 18%.