Research results of tourism economic operation analysis in the first half of 2012 and trend forecast report in the second half of the year

On July 12, 2012, the China Tourism Academy released a report in Beijing on the analysis of the tourism economy in the first half of 2012 and the trend forecast for the second half of the year. It is believed that in the first half of the year, affected by the downward trend of the domestic economy and the unstable political and economic situation in the world, the overall operation of my country's tourism economy was stable, but the growth rate of the market and industry slowed down simultaneously. The three major tourism markets showed a "two rises and one fall" pattern, and the regional tourism pattern had a breakthrough. It is expected that the tourism economy will continue to grow throughout the year, but the growth rate will be lower than the same period last year. The total number of tourists received throughout the year will exceed 3 billion, and the total tourism revenue will be about 2.54 trillion yuan.

The tourism economy achieved overall stable and rapid development in the first half of the year

In the first half of the year, thanks to the rapid growth of domestic tourism, the tourism economy is still operating within the boom range, but the growth rate has slowed down. Among the three major markets, domestic tourism has grown faster, outbound tourism has grown strongly, and inbound tourism has increased first and then decreased. In terms of industry, corporate operating performance has declined, investment has been partially hot, and high-end tourism has begun to attract attention. The tourism industry prosperity index in the first and second quarters was at a "relatively prosperous level", slightly lower than the same period last year. In the second quarter, the hotel industry experienced a decline in prosperity, and the prosperity indicators such as profit and tax amount and number of reservations fell the most. Tourism investment maintained high growth, and a large number of companies invested in "three highs" projects such as high-star hotels, high-end tourism complexes and golf. The risks of the tourism economy, which is mainly based on tourism real estate investment, have been continuously pushed up. In terms of regional tourism, the pattern has broken through. In the second quarter, the prosperity index of the central and western regions was higher than that of the eastern region for the first time. It is estimated that in the first half of 2012, the total number of tourists received is expected to exceed 1.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%; the total tourism revenue is 1.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%. The number of domestic tourists reached 1.55 billion, up 14% year-on-year; domestic tourism revenue reached 1.12 trillion yuan, up 18% year-on-year. The number of inbound tourists reached 66 million, down slightly year-on-year; foreign exchange revenue from inbound tourism reached 23.5 billion U.S. dollars, up 2% year-on-year. The number of outbound tourists reached 38.5 million, up 19%, and outbound tourism consumption reached about 36 billion U.S. dollars, and the trade deficit in tourism services further expanded.

Judgment on the development trend of tourism economy in the second half of the year: cautious optimism

The operating environment of the tourism economy is generally improving. The favorable factors mainly include that the domestic economic growth rate is expected to remain within the expected range, providing a good operating environment for the tourism economy; the entrepreneur confidence and tourism investment index in the tourism leading indicators are relatively high; and there are hot consumption periods during the summer vacation and the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. Internationally, the temporary stabilization of the Greek debt crisis and the introduction of an economic stimulus plan by the European Union are conducive to boosting market confidence. The unfavorable factors mainly include that the increasingly complex world economic situation and the tightening of port and visa policies will increase the pressure on the development of inbound tourism; factors such as the increase in scenic spot ticket prices will to a certain extent suppress domestic tourism consumption, and residents' willingness to consume will decline; outbound tourism will continue to grow at a high speed driven by factors such as the appreciation of the RMB and the high prices of domestic tourism products, and will further squeeze the domestic market share; tourism investment mainly flows to "three high" projects, and investment risks are increasing. Overall, the fundamentals supporting the development of the tourism economy have not changed, and we remain "cautiously optimistic" about the operating situation throughout the year.

The main indicators of the annual development tasks are expected to be achieved

In the absence of major breakthroughs in policy innovations directly related to the inbound tourism market, such as ports, visas and duty-free, it is expected that the tourism economy will continue to grow throughout the year, and the main indicators of the annual development tasks are expected to be achieved, but the growth rate will be lower than the same period last year, and indicators such as inbound tourism may be lower than expected. It is estimated that in 2012, the total number of tourists received will exceed 3 billion, and the total tourism revenue will be about 2.54 trillion yuan. The number of domestic tourists will exceed 2.9 billion, an increase of 11% year-on-year; domestic tourism revenue will be 2.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 16% year-on-year. Inbound tourism will be 137 million, an increase of 1% year-on-year; the number of overnight stays in the country will be about 58.25 million, an increase of 1% year-on-year; tourism foreign exchange income will be 49 billion US dollars, an increase of 1% year-on-year; the number of outbound tourists will be 78.4 million, an increase of 12% year-on-year; outbound tourism consumption will be 82 billion US dollars, an increase of 18% year-on-year, and the tourism service trade deficit will be 33 billion US dollars.