Analysis of tourism economic operation in the first three quarters of 2012 and forecast of annual trend

On October 10, 2012, the China Tourism Research Institute released a report in Beijing analyzing the operation of the tourism economy for the first three quarters of 2012 and forecasting the annual trend. Despite the downward pressure on the tourism development environment in the first three quarters of 2012, the overall tourism economy maintained a stable and rapid development momentum. The overall situation for the year remains cautiously optimistic, and the annual targets can be achieved. The trend of "two highs and one level" in the domestic, inbound, and outbound markets will become a foregone conclusion, and the trade deficit will further expand. It is expected that the total number of tourists received throughout the year will be about 3.13 billion, with a total tourism revenue of 2.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.8% and 16.6% year-on-year, respectively. In the first three quarters, the tourism economy continued the trend of the first half of the year, with a positive total volume. In the first three quarters, the proportion and supporting role of national tourism in the tourism market became increasingly evident, and the tourism economy was able to continue the trend of the first half of the year, with a positive total volume, but the inbound market was worrying. The overall tourism development environment is at a critical level of prosperity but there are fluctuations. Among the three major markets, domestic tourism and outbound tourism maintain a rapid growth trend, while the overall scale of inbound tourism remains relatively stable. In terms of industry, the rapid growth of the national tourism market provides strong support for the stable operation of the tourism industry. The tourism industry prosperity index remained at a "relatively prosperous" level in the first three quarters, but slightly lower than the same period last year. The tourism industry had the highest level of prosperity in the third quarter, with travel agencies, tourism groups, and hotels slightly lower than the tourism industry in terms of prosperity index. In terms of regional tourism, the tourism prosperity level in the western region continued to lead in the third quarter, followed by the eastern and central regions. Another characteristic of regional tourism operation is the increased investment by local governments, leading to a high enthusiasm for tourism development in various regions. It is expected that the total number of tourists received in the first three quarters of 2012 will be 2.348 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%; The total tourism revenue was 1.92 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%; The number of domestic tourists reached 2.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%; Domestic tourism revenue reached 1.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%. The number of inbound tourists reached 98 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%; The foreign exchange revenue from tourism was 36.03 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 0.83%. The number of outbound tourists reached 61 million, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%; Outbound tourism expenses amounted to 74.41 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 35.5%. The trade deficit in tourism services is constantly expanding. Judging the development trend of tourism economy for the whole year of 2012: cautiously optimistic, the overall operating environment of tourism economy is improving. The main favorable factors are that the annual GDP will achieve a growth rate of 7.8%, providing a favorable operating environment for the tourism economy; The state has issued several opinions on financial support for accelerating the development of the tourism industry, as well as exempting small vehicles from highway tolls during the National Day and Mid Autumn Festival holiday nationwide. In addition, the leading indicators for the operation of the tourism economy are still high in terms of entrepreneurial confidence and tourism investment index. The main unfavorable factors are that the international environment is still not optimistic. The obvious signs of a stable recovery from the financial crisis are unlikely to appear in the near future, and the overall operation in 2012 will be at a low level. Recently, the International Monetary Fund, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, and others have lowered the world economic growth rate for 2012. Terrorist incidents occur frequently, the European Union imposes carbon tariffs, and the Japanese government illegally "purchases" the Diaoyu Islands, which have had an impact on China's inbound tourism. Overall, the fundamentals supporting the development of the tourism economy have not changed, and we maintain a "cautious optimism" about the overall operating situation throughout the year. The main indicators for the annual development tasks are expected to achieve a total tourism reception of approximately 3.13 billion people and a total tourism revenue of 2.6 trillion yuan. The number of domestic tourists is about 3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%; Domestic tourism revenue reached 2.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%. The number of inbound tourists reached 132 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%; The foreign exchange income from inbound tourism was 48.5 billion US dollars, which was basically the same as last year. The number of outbound tourists reached 82 million, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%; Outbound tourism expenditure is about 85 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 20%. The trade deficit in tourism services may exceed 40 billion US dollars.