Research results of 2014 "China Tourism Economy Blue Book (No. 6)"

China Tourism Academy: Tourism economy is stable and improving Recently, the sixth "China Tourism Economy Blue Book" organized and compiled by China Tourism Academy, "2013 Tourism Economy Operation Analysis and 2014 Development Forecast", was officially published. The report shows that in 2013, China's tourism economy operated steadily, consumer demand was strong, investment continued to grow, the industry was relatively prosperous, and the development mode was accelerated. However, affected by the rapid growth of outbound tourism, the international tourism trade deficit continued to expand. For the development of the tourism economy in 2014, China Tourism Academy continues to be relatively optimistic and believes that it will continue to grow steadily and rapidly. 2013 Tourism Economy Review: Stable Operation, Outstanding Highlights In 2013, my country's tourism economy delivered a relatively satisfactory answer: overall stable operation, strong consumer demand, continued investment growth, and relatively prosperous industry operation. There are also many outstanding highlights, such as the introduction of the "Tourism Law" and the "National Tourism and Leisure Outline", and the introduction of the core values of the tourism industry, which will have a far-reaching impact on the development of the industry. Strong consumer demand. With the acceleration of the pace of building a well-off society in an all-round way, tourism has become an important part of people's daily life. In 2013, affected by the policies such as the "Eight Regulations" and the "Six Prohibitions", official travel consumption dropped sharply, business travel consumption slowed down significantly, while national leisure travel consumption showed a strong growth momentum. It is estimated that the number of domestic tourists in 2013 will be 3.3 billion, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year, achieving the goal of Document No. 41 of the State Council [2009] two years ahead of schedule; domestic tourism revenue will be 2.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 14% year-on-year. Investment continues to grow. Due to the optimistic outlook for the development of the tourism industry, various investment entities, especially private capital, social capital and international capital, have increased their investment in the tourism field. In 2013, national tourism investment continued to grow rapidly, and the enthusiasm for tourism investment in various places was high. Many provinces and cities launched tourism investment plans worth hundreds of billions of yuan. The industry is relatively prosperous. The tourism industry prosperity index in each quarter of 2013 was 115.85, 110.16, 128.74 and 110.02 respectively, all in the "relatively prosperous" range. In terms of different industries, the prosperity of scenic spots is relatively stable, while the prosperity of hotels, travel agencies and comprehensive tourism enterprises fluctuates greatly. The trade deficit in services continues to expand. In view of the fact that the deep-seated impact of the financial crisis is still continuing, and the relaxation of visa policies by neighboring countries has brought greater competition, my country's inbound tourism continues to be in a bottoming-out period. It is estimated that in 2013, my country's inbound tourism will reach 129 million person-times, a year-on-year decrease of 3%; and the foreign exchange income from tourism will reach 48 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. At the same time, under the influence of the continued growth of the domestic economy, the appreciation of the RMB, and the improvement of the competitiveness of inbound tourism in neighboring countries and regions, my country's outbound tourism continues to maintain a high-speed growth trend. It is estimated that in 2013, my country's outbound tourism will reach 98 million person-times, a year-on-year increase of 18%; and outbound tourism expenditure will reach 120 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 20%. The trade deficit in tourism services has further expanded and is expected to reach 72 billion US dollars. Forecast for 2014: Favorable factors increase, and the development of tourism economy is relatively optimistic. Driven by the stable and positive domestic economy, the deepening of market-oriented reforms, and the accelerated development of new urbanization, the development of tourism economy in 2014 faces a more favorable environment. China Tourism Academy continues to maintain a relatively optimistic outlook on the development of the tourism economy in 2014. It is expected that the tourism economy will continue to grow steadily and rapidly in 2014. The specific forecast indicators are as follows: total tourism revenue of 3.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The number of domestic tourists is 3.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%; domestic tourism revenue is 2.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The number of inbound tourists is 131 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%; inbound tourism foreign exchange income is 49 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The number of outbound tourists is 114 million, a year-on-year increase of 16%; outbound tourism expenditure is 140 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 18%. The deficit in tourism service trade has expanded to 91 billion US dollars. In terms of policy recommendations, China Tourism Academy proposes to promote reform and innovation in the tourism industry, further change the development mode, raise the marketization, industrialization, modernization and internationalization of the tourism industry to a higher level, and focus on the two major strategic goals and the construction of a world tourism power, and strive to create an upgraded version of China's tourism industry. Medium- and long-term trends: Development mode quietly transforms From the market perspective, the people's growing and normalized tourism demand has become the basic support for the tourism market. my country's tourism market has experienced the development process of "inbound tourism → domestic tourism → outbound tourism". The main market has adjusted from external demand to endogenous demand, laying a market foundation with national mass tourism consumption as the main body. In recent years, especially since 2013, the two trends of the tourism market accelerating the adjustment to national demand and the national tourism market accelerating the adjustment to mass demand have become more obvious, and the tourism consumption model has undergone a historic evolution. In the long run, my country's tourism consumption demand will maintain a medium-speed growth, and official and business demand will also slow down accordingly. The normalized tourism demand of the people and its growth will be the main force of my country's tourism market demand in the future. In the new historical stage, the contradiction between the rapidly growing tourism demand of the people and the backward business model and public services will become more prominent. "Complaining while traveling" will become the norm of tourism development, and the tourism development strategy needs to adjust back to the basics of national mass tourism consumption. From the industrial perspective, capital, technology, and young entrepreneurial teams have become the main leading forces for development, and the marketization process of production factors has become unstoppable. In fact, over the past thirty years, the tourism industry has been in the process of continuous marketization. At present, a situation has been formed in which state-owned and private, social and international capital coexist, and overall openness and partial monopoly coexist. In recent years, especially since 2013, the fastest-growing and best-performing industries are those that rely on modern technology and are oriented to individual travelers and the mass market, such as economy hotels and online travel services. In terms of investment, although state-owned capital still occupies a dominant position in large-scale enterprise investment and large-scale project investment, the non-public economy, especially private capital, has shown a trend of accelerated entry and strategic intervention, especially in the investment of new industries such as economy hotels, online travel services, and tourism complexes, where private capital and foreign capital have already taken a leading position. In terms of other production factors, the liquidity of land and tourism resources is insufficient, technology and entrepreneurs are still very scarce factors, there are still some institutional barriers to the mobility of high-level talents, and there are problems of excessive mobility and generally low quality in the labor market. In addition, some tourism-related industries such as railways and aviation still have strong monopolies, and barriers between industries and regions have not been completely eliminated. From the perspective of the future development of the tourism industry, it is necessary to reform the institutional mechanisms that constrain the development of the tourism industry, reduce the institutional barriers to the development of the tourism industry, and give play to the decisive role of the market in the allocation of tourism resources. From the policy perspective, the basic direction is to relax micro-control and improve macro-control capabilities and comprehensive coordination capabilities. Over the past 30 years, government-led development has been an important experience in the development of my country's tourism industry. Government departments have played an important role in market promotion, industrial planning, resource integration, standard guidance, and the promotion of key projects. At the same time, compared with the new development situation of the tourism industry, the macro-control capabilities of the tourism department are still relatively weak, and the tourism public services for the society, especially individual tourists, are seriously insufficient. At the same time, excessive micro-intervention by government departments has also affected the vitality of the market. Further development requires the promotion of in-depth marketization. Specifically, in terms of policy design, the narrow tourism industry policy has been basically exhausted, and it is difficult to make a breakthrough within the existing policy and administrative framework of the tourism administrative department. In the direction of future industrial policy innovation, on the one hand, it is necessary to relax micro-level control and enhance the macro-control capabilities oriented to the rule of law and services; on the other hand, it is necessary to accelerate the adjustment of macro-comprehensive policies, actively coordinate relevant departments in policy design and innovation, and promote the optimization of the overall environment for tourism development through comprehensive coordination, and finally form a complete tourism policy innovation system. From the perspective of regional structure, the imbalance of regional and urban-rural tourism development will continue to exist for a long time, and it is urgent to strengthen vertical and horizontal classified guidance. Under the macro influence of the economic and social development pattern, the development of my country's tourism industry also shows obvious regional and urban-rural imbalance. The imbalance of regional tourism development determines that it is difficult and unrealistic to make a unified tourism development plan for the whole country. Paying attention to the imbalance of regional tourism development structure, we must not only provide horizontal classified guidance from the eastern, central and western levels, but also provide vertical classified guidance from the provincial, municipal and county levels; we must fully mobilize the independent innovation capabilities of local areas, and effectively strengthen the classified guidance capabilities of local areas. The investigation should be moved down and truly go deep into the grassroots to provide more effective information guidance for the development of local tourism. In particular, as an important basic force and source of vitality in my country's regional tourism development pattern, the county area has shown a lack of overall view and a planned thinking approach to market economic affairs in the process of tourism development. Problems such as these need to be paid attention to. From the perspective of the international market, the expansion of the inbound and outbound tourism trade deficit and the international development of the tourism industry call for a more active and proactive internationalization strategy. my country has now become the world's largest outbound tourism consumer and the world's third largest inbound tourism destination. The World Travel and Tourism Council recently predicted that China will become the world's largest tourism economy in 2023. In this regard, we must have a calm attitude, recognize the reality of my country as a developing country, and never waver in our confidence in developing inbound tourism. At the same time, we must see that my country's tourism industry has not yet formed an international strategy. It always follows the national strategy internally, and lacks sufficient international voice and rule-making power externally. The international competitiveness of tourism is generally weakening, and the deficit in tourism service trade is becoming more and more serious. The purpose of exchanging outbound for inbound and market for technology has not really been achieved. Future development should further expand opening up, enhance the initiative of my country's tourism industry in the internationalization process, improve the ability of my country's tourism industry to internationalize marketing and handle international affairs, and at the same time achieve reform and development through opening up.