Analysis of tourism economic operation in the first quarter of 2014 and trend forecast for the first half of the year

In the first quarter of 2014, the operation of the tourism economy was basically stable, the policy environment was favorable, the mid market and Internet based industrial innovation were active, consumer confidence and entrepreneurial confidence were relatively high, but the downward pressure on inbound tourism increased. The tourism economy in the first half of the year is expected to be relatively optimistic, and policies and measures to promote tourism consumption should be introduced as soon as possible to release more positive market signals, stabilize market confidence, strengthen regulation of tourism investment, and guide new business models. 1、 Analysis of Tourism Economy Operation in the First Quarter of 2014 Despite the continued downward pressure on the inbound tourism market and the low prosperity of high star hotels and high-end catering enterprises, tourism consumption has maintained a steady and rapid growth due to the stable macroeconomic operation, relatively high confidence in the mass market, and expectations from entrepreneurs. Middle end hotels are making efforts, and the Internet based travel services and accommodation industry are innovative and active, and tourism investment tends to be rational. Normalization, rationality, and stability are the main themes of the tourism economy in the first quarter. （1） Development environment: The macroeconomic growth rate is stable, and there are many favorable factors. The tourism economy development environment in this quarter has improved compared to the same period last year. The main reason is that the growth momentum of the world economy has been strengthened, the domestic economy is running smoothly, there are more favorable policy factors for the development of the tourism market, and the recovery process of the international tourism market has significantly accelerated. The overall development environment for domestic tourism is relatively good. The demand for social consumption is strong, and the demand for tourism related investment is also strong. Based on predictions from major institutions, it is expected that the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter will increase by 13%. Investment in folk culture, sports, and entertainment industries increased by 19%. According to the financial reports of Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, the cumulative passenger volume of the three major airlines increased by 13.2% year-on-year from January to February. The increasing transportation capacity provides support for the development of the tourism industry. The innovation behavior of the tourism industry driven by technological progress and the integration of business formats is active, and the payment methods for tourism are further technological and convenient. The international tourism development environment has significantly improved, and major economies around the world, represented by the United States, have shown significant economic recovery. With the stability and decline of oil prices, the price index of international and regional airline tickets has significantly decreased. The number of international routes has increased, and Air China has added new international routes and increased capacity on the route between Beijing and New York. We predict that the MICE market and business travel market will experience growth. The number of visa free or visa on arrival countries for Chinese citizens entering the country has increased. All of these are beneficial for the recovery of inbound tourism and the development of outbound tourism in China. There are also some unfavorable external factors in the current operation of the tourism economy. There has been no significant improvement in the overall quality of China's major inbound customer markets. Environmental issues highlighted by haze may affect the willingness to consume in the inbound market and reduce tourist satisfaction. The global security issues represented by the violent terrorist attack in Kunming, Xinjiang, the disappearance of a Malaysia Airlines flight, the turbulent situation in Ukraine, and the protests in Bangkok may hinder the willingness to consume in the inbound market and may have a temporary negative impact on the promotion of China's visa free transit policy. （2） Market fundamentals: National tourism is growing steadily, and the downward pressure on the inbound market is not reducing. Domestic tourism is growing steadily. During the Spring Festival, a total of 231 million tourists were received nationwide, an increase of 14% compared to the previous year's Spring Festival Golden Week; Realize tourism revenue of 126.39 billion yuan, an increase of 16.4%. It is expected that the number of domestic tourists in the first quarter will be 1.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and the domestic tourism revenue will be 896 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%. The growth rate of the inbound tourism market continues to decline. Based on existing statistical data and professional analysis, it is expected that the inbound tourism market will continue to decline in the first quarter. It is expected that the number of inbound tourists in the first quarter will be 31 million, a year-on-year decrease of about 3%; The foreign exchange revenue from inbound tourism was 11 billion US dollars, a decrease of 3% compared to the same period last year. Outbound tourism continues to grow rapidly. The recent depreciation of the Chinese yuan has had limited impact on outbound tourism in the first half of the year. It is expected that the number of outbound tourists in the first quarter will be 26.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 17%, with outbound tourism spending exceeding 34 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and a tourism service trade deficit of about 22.6 billion US dollars. It is expected that the total number of visitors received in the first quarter of 2014 will exceed 1.15 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, and the total tourism revenue will reach 963 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. （3） Industry fundamentals: The overall level of tourism enterprise prosperity has rebounded rapidly, while the level of hotel industry prosperity has continued to decline. This quarter, the operation of the tourism industry is relatively prosperous, which has improved compared to the fourth quarter of last year and is close to the level of the third quarter of last year. The enterprise's scale indicators such as fixed assets investment at the end of the quarter and employees at the end of the quarter, as well as market indicators such as the number of bookings, the number of receptionists and operating income, all recovered to more than 100 of the boom threshold. From the perspective of different industries, the prosperity index of scenic spots, tourism enterprises, and travel agencies has rebounded to varying degrees compared to the previous quarter. The prosperity level of the scenic area has remained stable at a "relatively prosperous" level in the first two quarters, and has risen to a "relatively prosperous" level. The prosperity level of comprehensive tourism enterprises and travel agencies, which have also rebounded rapidly, has also risen from the "micro prosperity" level at the end of last year to the "relative prosperity" level. In the first quarter of 2014, the prosperity level of various business indicators of tourism enterprises was above the critical value, and the tourism industry basically maintained a trend of synchronous growth with the market. In terms of tourism investment, the enthusiasm of social capital for tourism investment is high. The innovative business model based on Internet and mobile communication technology is sought after by capital. Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba and other large e-commerce companies have increased their investment in tourism. The popularity of tourism real estate continues to grow, with developers including Poly, Evergrande, OCT, Wanda, Longfor, and non-traditional real estate developers such as Suning further expanding their presence in the tourism real estate sector. Although the overall prosperity level of tourism enterprises has rebounded and improved, structural pressure still exists. The hotel industry's prosperity level continued to decline this quarter, still at a "micro prosperity" level. A survey shows that the operating costs and employee salary levels in the hotel industry have increased, while the number of employees at the end of each quarter has declined. The decline in revenue of high-end catering and high star hotels is even more pronounced. From January to February this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China saw a year-on-year increase of 9.6% in catering revenue, while the total catering revenue of enterprises above designated size decreased by 0.5% year-on-year. （4） Regional tourism: The transportation system has been further optimized, and the coordinated development pattern of regional tourism has become more apparent. In the first quarter of 2014, the tourism prosperity level and basic pattern in the eastern, central, and western regions remained stable, and the development of regional tourism has become more coordinated. Based on the development trend of regional tourism in this quarter, the transportation system within the region has been further optimized. In 2013, China added 8260 kilometers of highways and 1672 kilometers of high-speed rail. The Dali Lijiang Expressway will be opened during the New Year period. A more convenient and optimized transportation system will accelerate the process of regional tourism integration, providing necessary support for the coordinated development and innovation of regional tourism. 2、 Outlook for the Development of Tourism Economy in the First Half of 2014: In the second quarter, the global economic environment has improved, the domestic economy is stable, and there are many favorable policy factors. The indicators of domestic development environment and entrepreneurial confidence are relatively good. We believe that the tourism economy will continue to operate steadily and upward in the first half of the year, and overall it tends to be "relatively optimistic". （1） Macro environment: The policy environment is improving and the operating environment of the tourism economy is stable. In 2013, the national macroeconomic regulation achieved initial results and the domestic economy is running smoothly. The 2014 government work report set GDP growth for this year at 7.5%, with macroeconomic operations within a reasonable range and an overall stable tourism economic environment. This year, the country will be committed to continuously improving people's livelihoods, increasing employment and residents' income, and expanding domestic demand. The implementation of these policies and measures will enhance consumer confidence and purchasing power, which is conducive to improving tourism consumption expectations. This year is still the first year of government reform, and the government work report proposes to adjust the structure and expand consumption. The industry and society have high expectations for the dividends that reform can bring. During the Two Sessions, the Tourism Law and the National Tourism and Leisure Outline received high attention from national leaders. The meeting proposed to focus on developing services such as elderly care, health, tourism, and culture, and implement a paid vacation system. The tourism environment will be further optimized, and new tourism consumption hotspots are expected to emerge. The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments drafted opinions in February to promote tourism consumption, and specific policy measures to stimulate domestic demand through tourism are expected to be introduced. The international economy is expected to continue to improve, with clear positive factors. According to predictions from institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the world economy is expected to grow at around 3.5% and world trade is expected to grow at around 4.6% in 2014. According to the World Tourism Organization's forecast, the number of world tourists will increase by 4.25% in 2014. The positive international economic situation is to some extent beneficial for the development of the inbound tourism market in some regions, especially those dominated by business tourism. In terms of unfavorable factors, firstly, the rise of international and domestic terrorist forces has a phased impact on local areas. The second is that specific measures to stimulate domestic demand through tourism still need to be introduced, and the current market lacks new tourism consumption cultivation. Thirdly, in terms of tourism investment, there is a surge in tourism investment in various regions, and there are many large-scale projects that deviate from consumer fundamentals. Therefore, we still need to be cautious of irrational investment. （2） Market foundation: Market confidence and outlook expectations have increased, and the demand for national tourism has normalized. From historical data, the total reception volume of the tourism market in the second quarter accounted for about 20% of the whole year. From previous years, the tourism market in the second quarter was mostly lukewarm. Apart from the Qingming Festival, the May 12th holiday, and the May 19th China Tourism Day, there were no significant favorable factors in the second quarter. The survey shows that in the second quarter, the willingness of Chinese residents to travel was 78.68%. According to the prosperity survey of tourism enterprises of the Research Institute, the current tourism booking prosperity index and the prosperity level of enterprises' fixed assets investment are relatively stable, and the number of employment in the tourism industry at the end of the quarter is rising. In the first half of the year, industrial innovation activities based on the Internet and mobile terminals will lead a new development boom. During the 2014 Spring Festival Golden Week, Ctrip's mobile terminal payments accounted for 50% of its scenic spot ticket business. WeChat platform and WeChat Pay are highly valued by online travel merchants. In terms of unfavorable factors, one of the important reasons for the decline in inbound tourism in China is environmental pollution. On February 26th, Wiki Travel listed Beijing's smog as the top global travel warning. Previously, Forbes ranked China's smog as the top global environmental and energy event of 2013, and environmental issues have become an important reference indicator for tourists to choose destinations, strongly stimulating the motivation of Chinese citizens to travel abroad. Secondly, the continuous depreciation of the Chinese yuan has led some tourism companies to anticipate a 10% increase in outbound tourism prices starting from May, which may slow down the growth rate of outbound tourism. （3） Based on the above judgment, it is estimated that the number of domestic tourists will reach 1.87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and the annual proportion will reach 52.23%; Domestic tourism revenue reached 1.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%, and completed the annual proportion of 52.6%. The number of inbound tourists was 63 million, and the number of overnight visitors was about 27 million, a year-on-year increase of 1%, achieving a proportion of 45.3% for the whole year; The foreign exchange income from inbound tourism was 23 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.7% compared to the same period last year, achieving a full year proportion of 47.4%. The number of outbound tourists reached 53.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and the proportion for the whole year was 48.5%; Outbound tourism costs 70 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%. The total number of tourists received in the first half of the year was 1.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%. The total revenue of tourism reception was 1.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, achieving a proportion of 51.5% for the whole year.