Analysis of tourism economic operation in the first half of 2014 and trend forecast in the second half of the year

On July 9, 2014, the China Tourism Academy released the 2014 First Half Tourism Economic Operation Analysis and Second Half Trend Forecast Report in Beijing, which stated that the overall operation of my country's tourism economy was good in the first half of the year and achieved the expected growth. Although the inbound market continued to decline, the basic demand for national tourism consumption still maintained a high double-digit growth. From the perspective of the whole year, we can still maintain a "relatively optimistic" expectation. It is estimated that the total number of tourists received in the whole year will be 3.76 billion, and the total tourism revenue will be 3.3 trillion yuan. The development environment of the tourism economy is relatively favorable and the operation is generally good. In the first half of the year, affected by the active regulation of the national structural adjustment, my country's national economy grew slowly, the economic operation was generally good, the international economy recovered moderately, and the development environment of the tourism economy was relatively favorable. Affected by the stable growth of the domestic economy and holidays, the demand for domestic and outbound tourism markets in my country was strong, the overall prosperity level of the tourism industry remained stable, and the process of regional tourism integration was accelerated. Among the three major markets, domestic tourism continued to grow, outbound tourism continued to grow rapidly, and inbound tourism continued to fluctuate downward. In terms of industry, the prosperity level of traditional travel service industry recovered slowly in the first half of the year. The prosperity level of travel agency industry in the first and second quarters was at a "slightly prosperous level" and the downward trend was obvious. Driven by investment, entrepreneurship and Internet innovation, the broad travel service industry for the mass market maintained a prosperous development trend. In terms of regional tourism, the prosperity level of tourism enterprises in traditional tourist destinations and source areas such as the east and central regions was relatively high in the first half of the year, maintaining at a "relatively prosperous" level, while the prosperity level in the west was relatively low, at a "slightly prosperous" level. Regional economic cooperation and the improvement of transportation networks further promoted the process of regional tourism integration. It is estimated that the number of domestic tourists in the first half of 2014 will be 1.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, and domestic tourism revenue will be 1.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%; the number of inbound tourists will be 62 million, and the foreign exchange income of inbound tourism will be 23 billion US dollars; the number of outbound tourists will be 54.1 million, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, and the outbound tourism expenditure will exceed 70 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, and the trade deficit will be 47 billion US dollars. It is estimated that the total number of tourists received in the first half of the year will be 1.91 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. Total tourism revenue was 1.6 trillion yuan, up 14.8% year-on-year. Judgment on the development trend of tourism economy in the second half of the year: relatively optimistic Looking forward to the second half of the year, the stable recovery of the macro economy, the development of global trade, the steady growth of business travel, the improvement of the transportation network, and the visa facilitation policies successively introduced by various countries will bring new impetus to the development of the tourism industry. From a domestic perspective, the promulgation and implementation of documents such as the "Several Opinions of the State Council on the Reform and Development of the Tourism Industry" will further optimize the development environment of the tourism market, the innovation of tourism formats will be more active, regional tourism cooperation will continue to deepen, and residents will have a high willingness to travel. The overall tourism market will continue to maintain stable growth. In the second half of the year, except for the summer tourism season, the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day holidays, there are not enough hot spots in the domestic tourism market. The performance of high-end accommodation, catering and traditional travel agencies may continue to decline, and the decline in the markets of most important inbound source countries will increase. The inbound tourism market needs to make greater efforts to achieve the expected goals at the beginning of the year. It is estimated that in 2014, the number of domestic tourists will reach 3.63 billion, up 11.4% year-on-year; domestic tourism revenue will reach 3.1 trillion yuan, up 16.3% year-on-year. If the environment improves and the measures are appropriate, inbound tourism is expected to be the same as last year. The number of outbound tourists reached 116 million, up 18.2% year-on-year; outbound tourism expenditure reached 155 billion US dollars, up 20% year-on-year, and the trade deficit in tourism services will exceed 100 billion US dollars. The total number of tourists received reached 3.76 billion, up 10.8% year-on-year; and the total tourism revenue reached 3.3 trillion yuan, up 14.8% year-on-year.