Analysis of tourism economic situation in the first three quarters of 2014 and forecast of annual trend

Policy dividends boost tourism industry innovation and development On October 10, 2014, the China Tourism Academy released the tourism economic situation analysis and annual trend forecast for the first three quarters of 2014 in Beijing, and believed that in the first three quarters, the tourism market maintained a sustained and rapid growth trend, and industrial investment and business innovation became more active. It is estimated that in the first three quarters, the total number of tourists received nationwide will be 2.8 billion, and tourism revenue will reach 2.4 trillion yuan. The annual target can be fully achieved. It is estimated that the total number of tourists received throughout the year will be 3.72 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The total tourism reception revenue for the whole year will be 3.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%. The policy environment for tourism development continues to improve, and market players are actively innovating. At present, my country's macroeconomic situation has stabilized, and market players are actively innovating. The downward pressure on the tourism economy has increased to a certain extent. Domestic tourism has entered a period of stable growth, outbound tourism has developed rapidly, and the inbound market has begun to show signs of stopping the decline. The Tourism Law and National Leisure Outline issued earlier, as well as the State Council's Opinions on Promoting the Reform and Development of the Tourism Industry (hereinafter referred to as Document No. 31), the tourism inter-ministerial joint conference system and other policies and systems have put forward overall policy arrangements to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the tourism industry. Influenced by multiple factors such as technological business model innovation and changes in consumer behavior, the tourism industry structure has been changing in recent years. The industry innovation of small and micro new formats based on Internet technology is active, but the innovation capacity of traditional formats has not been fundamentally solved. In terms of regional tourism, driven by the summer peak season, the regional prosperity level rebounded in the third quarter. The prosperity level in the eastern and central regions is relatively stable, while the prosperity level in the western region has risen rapidly. It is estimated that in the first three quarters, the total number of tourists received nationwide will be 2.8 billion, and tourism revenue will reach 2.4 trillion yuan. Among them, the domestic tourism market will reach 2.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. Domestic tourism revenue will be 2.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%. The total number of inbound tourists was 95 million, down 1.5% year-on-year, and the number of inbound overnight tourists was 40.7 million, down 1.8% year-on-year. Inbound tourism revenue was about 37.7 billion US dollars. Outbound tourism was 85 million, up 16.6% year-on-year. Outbound tourism expenditure was 115 billion US dollars, up 17.3% year-on-year. The trade deficit in tourism services was 77.6 billion US dollars. Forecast for the trend of the whole year of 2014: relatively optimistic The current leading index of the tourism economy is 90.21. The domestic policy economy is stable and making progress. There are still many uncertainties in the recovery of the international economy. Taking into account many factors, we expect that the overall operation of the tourism economy throughout the year can maintain a "relatively optimistic" judgment. Domestic tourism has developed steadily, and outbound tourism has grown rapidly. The national tourism special promotion and the seasonal promotion innovation in Hangzhou and other places may have a certain role in promoting the inbound market, and the inbound market may remain flat. After comprehensive analysis, we still maintain a "relatively optimistic" judgment on the tourism economic situation throughout the year, and the specific development indicators remain the same as in the middle of the year. The overall goal of tourism development throughout the year can be achieved. It is estimated that the number of domestic tourists will reach 3.6 billion, and the domestic tourism revenue will reach 3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%. The number of inbound tourists will reach 128 million, basically the same as last year; the number of inbound overnight stays will reach 55 million, the same as last year. The foreign exchange income from inbound tourism will reach 48 billion US dollars, an increase of 6.2% over last year. The number of outbound tourists will reach 115 million, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%; the outbound tourism expenditure will reach 155 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, and the deficit in tourism service trade will exceed 100 billion US dollars.