Dai Bin | Expected Growth and Rational Prosperity - Special Comment on the 2023 Mid Autumn and National Day Tourism Market

The Mid-Autumn Festival in 2023 is linked to the National Day, forming an 8-day super long holiday after the compensatory leave. In addition to the superimposed influence of the Asian Games in Hangzhou and the policy effect, it has formed the most popular holiday tourism market since records. According to the official website of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the eight day Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, there were 826 million domestic tourists traveling, a year-on-year increase of 71.3% on a comparable basis and a 4.1% increase on a comparable basis compared to 2019; The domestic tourism revenue reached 753.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 129.5% on a comparable basis and a 1.5% increase on a comparable basis compared to 2019, achieving the expected growth. From the micro structural indicators such as average travel distance of tourists, average recreational radius of destinations, tourism consumption structure, proportion of self driving tours, and tourist satisfaction, it can be seen that the past three years have indeed passed, and the marginal effects of normalized policies for travel tourism and contact consumption have tended to decrease. The tourism economy has begun to enter a new normal driven by market endogenous and innovation. With the joint efforts of technology, creativity, investment, and entrepreneurial confidence, the tourism economy will steadily enter a new stage of rational prosperity.

01

The combined effect of high demand, industrial innovation, and policy promotion has propelled the holiday tourism market to a new historical high

When the Mid-Autumn Festival meets the National Day, coupled with the promotion of policies of governments at all levels, the enthusiasm of urban residents for outflow has never been higher. "Everyone is a tourist, and everywhere is a landscape." "Cultivating family and country feelings, enjoying the world's fireworks, and appreciating the peace and prosperity of the country" have become a vivid portrayal of the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day tourism market. 300000 tourists and citizens gathered at Tiananmen Square to celebrate the 74th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. The "Special Performance for the Motherland" in Jinjie, Heping District, Tianjin, the "Our Song" collaboration between Anligan Art Center and Beiyang Chorus, and the heartfelt performances of "Singing the Motherland" and "Embroidering the Red Flag" from various parts of China brought warmth and strength to tourists and citizens, and injected vitality, fashion, and dynamic new images into major tourist destinations. The sustained high willingness and consumption enthusiasm of urban and rural residents to travel, the diverse tourism supply, the "Several Measures to Release the Potential of Tourism Consumption and Promote the High quality Development of the Tourism Industry" issued by the General Office of the State Council, and the consumption promotion policies of local governments have made the last public holiday of 2023 the hottest holiday tourism market in history.

The size of urban population, the level of economic and social development, and the aviation, high-speed rail, and highway networks are still the underlying logic that affects the tourism economy. With the implementation of normalized travel and contact consumption policies, the travel distance and destination leisure radius of tourists have significantly increased. During the holiday period, the travel radius of domestic tourists was 189.5 kilometers, an increase of 59.6% compared to the same day last year on a comparable basis; The average recreational radius of tourists at the destination is 17.9 kilometers, an increase of 86.0% compared to the same period last year on a comparable basis. Big data monitoring shows that Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Sichuan, Hebei, Zhejiang, Hubei, Anhui, and Hunan have the highest tourist output, with Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, Hubei, Zhejiang, and Hunan receiving relatively more tourists. Tianjin, Beijing, Shanghai, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Hebei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Ningxia, and Chongqing have a relatively high proportion of out of town tourists. The Hangzhou Asian Games has brought tourists to surrounding cities such as Wenzhou, Huzhou, Ningbo, and Shaoxing. Middle and long distance tourism traffic stations and popular scenic spots have been congested for many times. Scenic spots such as Nanjing Confucius Temple, Xi'an Terra Cotta Warriors, Mount Taishan, Longmen Grottoes, Dujiangyan Irrigation Project, etc. have successively issued warnings of the best and maximum carrying capacity, and major urban blocks such as Shanghai and Changsha have reappeared "human chain" to ease passenger flow. Some people jokingly say, 'I originally planned to travel during off peak hours, but ended up predicting others' predictions.' 'Before entering the scenic area, there are a sea of people, and after entering, there are a sea of people.' However, more people are calm and composed after returning to normal life. 'This is what a peaceful and peaceful country and a bustling world should look like.'.

Since the beginning of this year, the cultural and tourism sectors have resumed group tourism and "flight ticket hotel" services for 138 ADS countries and regions in three batches. In addition, international flights have continued to resume and policies such as visa free entry for overseas countries and regions have been favorable. Especially with the rapid recovery of the basic market in Hong Kong and Macao, the inbound and outbound tourism market has grown significantly compared to the National Day and labor holidays in 2022 and 2023, and has driven the accelerated repair of the international and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan tourism supply chains. From the data of outbound tourism in the first three quarters and during the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, nearby countries and regions such as Hong Kong, Macau, Thailand, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea are the main destinations for Chinese citizens' outbound tourism and also the main source of inbound tourism. It is worth noting that the outbound group tour orders of Gulf countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, as well as countries along the "the Belt and Road" such as Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, Iran, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Sri Lanka and Kenya, increased significantly during the holiday. On September 29th, the "Blue Dream Star" set sail from the Qingdao cruise homeport, opening the Qingdao Jeju Shanghai international route, marking the resumption of normal operations for all inbound and outbound tourism businesses in China. The development of inbound and outbound tourism involves extensive market promotion, resource development, infrastructure construction, policy coordination, and public services. It increasingly relies on departmental collaboration and national strength, market-oriented, professional, and specialized teams, as well as market-oriented product research and service quality improvement.

Holiday tourism has also attracted high attention and positive coverage from mainstream overseas media, with keywords related to growth, consumption, and culture in Asia and North America. Among them, countries and regions with high expectations for the recovery of the Chinese market, such as Australia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Middle East, and South Korea, have shown a stronger interest in data, information, and policies related to the holiday tourism market. The return of Chinese tourists is widely welcomed by countries around the world, injecting indispensable momentum into the recovery of the global tourism market and the prosperity of the tourism economy. The consumption focus of Chinese tourists is no longer on conspicuous shopping, but more on the natural, historical, cultural, and life experiences of overseas destinations. The Overseas Tourism Bureau has begun to actively guide the tourism industry to adjust its product structure, thereby promoting the transformation of host countries and regions towards high-quality and high experience destinations.

02

Tourism consumption is further concentrated towards the "three zones and one cluster", and personalized and diverse demands are needed to reconstruct a new pattern of the tourism industry

The holiday data once again highlights the core position and fundamental role of cities in China's tourism economy system. International metropolises and first - and second tier cities have released the greatest potential for tourism consumption. The "three zones and one circle" that grow or revolve around cities, namely tourist attractions, resorts, neighborhoods, and commercial districts, have become the most concentrated and consumption maximizing new tourism and leisure spaces, and have also provided more realistic possibilities for city walking. This holiday, cities such as Beijing, Hangzhou, Shanghai, Xi'an, and Suzhou have become popular cities for City Walk. Museums, attractions, and neighborhoods have actively launched distinctive stamps, allowing tourists to deeply experience local culture while walking and collecting stamps. At the same time, this has activated and driven tourism revenue in transportation, catering, commercial districts, and other areas. According to the holiday passenger flow monitoring data of national science and technology major projects led by the China Tourism Research Institute (Data Center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism), more than 20% of tourists choose commercial complexes, cultural and museum venues, and historical and cultural blocks during holidays. In the first half of the holiday, the popularity of urban tourism and leisure blocks is significantly higher than that of remote scenic spots, and the overall popularity of urban tourism in the eastern and central regions is higher than that in the western regions. The increasingly perfect urban greenways, scenic roads, community parks, suburban parks, theme parks, and cultural and museum venues provide more new spaces for the diversity and personalization of urban holiday tourism consumption, which are both nearby and far away, and shared by hosts and guests. The passenger flow of public transportation in Shanghai's Bund and Nanjing Road, Beijing SKP, Luobaobao Amusement Park Light and Shadow Theater, Shenzhen Futian District Festival Avenue, Wuhu Ancient City, and Chongqing Central City has reached a historic high.

It is worth noting that the combination of self driving tourism and health and wellness vacation, coupled with the improvement of destination small transportation such as shared cars, shared bicycles, shared electric vehicles, and community scenic shuttle buses, has promoted the gradual formation of a number of tourism destinations that rely on natural resources such as beaches, lakes, mountains, and forests. Compared with the centralized and static leisure vacation mode in Europe and America, China's national vacation is still in the stage of market introduction, presenting market characteristics such as time concentration, spatial dispersion, travel path expansion, and active consumption. Thanks to the improvement of infrastructure, public services, and commercial environment, the surrounding tourism with destination hotels, homestays, and vacation properties as "mooring ports" has become more active, driving tourism, catering, sales of agricultural and sideline specialties, and local cultural and entertainment consumption, accelerating the growth of new formats such as automobile economy, community economy, travel and leisure, and forming market opportunities for tourism investment and commercial innovation. The passenger flow of self driving, aviation, railways, highways, and cruise ships drives the prosperity of hub businesses such as airports, service areas, and ports, and the channel economy nurtures new opportunities for the integrated development of transportation and tourism. Baiyun Airport integrates technological means, sets up interesting interactive projects, and enriches the airport waiting consumption experience. Yingtong Catering's "Yibaiwei" restaurant has launched a 30% discount on holiday dishes at more than 40 stores in service areas such as Quzhou and Lin'an, allowing passing tourists to enjoy affordable food in the service areas.

Local governments and businesses are competing to find growth points in the integration of culture and tourism, and holiday economy consumption growth points are constantly emerging in forms such as tourism culture and tourism sports. During the holiday period, the heat of the Hangzhou Asian Games spread to various places, and the policies of free and low-cost fitness venues in various regions were strengthened. Among the groups of family visits and local tourists, many people chose the vacation mode of "sports tourism". More than 40 music festivals and various concerts and concerts across the country have brought bands and singers into the public, allowing "music tourism" to be introduced from a possible concept into the real market. The Secretary of the Nanyang Municipal Party Committee and Mayor, dressed in volunteer uniforms, went to the Green Skin Station to pick up and drop off tourists participating in the Midi Music Festival, and enthusiastic citizens drove music fans back to their hotels. This not only adds a new case of "fancy pet tourists", but also reflects the social and cultural tolerance for personalized and diverse tourism needs. The second season of "Sing While Walking" jointly produced by Ctrip Travel and Time Difference Island resonates with young tourists, and the Nanjing City Music Festival runs through the cultural line of the Youth Olympic Games. The first Apple Music Festival kicked off in Beijing, driving the hot sales of various cultural and creative products such as coffee, printmaking, and fabric backpacks. During the long holiday, the deep integration of culture and tourism has shown more possibilities, and the consumption scenarios have become more diverse.

The holiday economy includes both popular cities, top scenic spots, and internet famous neighborhoods where people follow the crowd, as well as reverse tourism, alternative tourism, and healing tourism where people lie flat at a 45 degree angle; There are both special forces, stamp collecting, and check-in tours, as well as local vacations to appreciate the beautiful scenery nearby and experience daily life. Not following the younger generation to check in with internet celebrities has become the "last stubbornness of middle-aged people on holidays". The carefully crafted homestay Qixin Valley, located near Xiamen and supported by the Tulou Scenic Area, has a unit price of around 1000 yuan on weekdays. During holidays, it rises to 2000-2500 yuan due to the popularity of tourists, and the occupancy rate has also increased from 60% to full occupancy. The autonomy of middle-aged and middle to high-income groups in choosing tourism destinations and consumption items will have a deep and long-term impact on the restructuring of the tourism economy in the post pandemic era. The demand for personalized and diverse tourism is not a sign of a certain age group or income class, but a long-term trend in the comprehensive development stage of mass tourism. According to data from Qunar.com, the number of hotel room nights booked in "small airport" cities across the country, including Handan, Luoyang, Liuzhou, Huai'an, Yichun, etc., has increased by more than 6 times compared to 2019. Among them, the number of room nights booked in high star hotels has increased significantly, by 8.8 times compared to the same period in 2019. Small City Relaxation Tour "is favored by young people. Three to five friends fly to unfamiliar small towns to enjoy local cheap and high-quality hotels and restaurants, and then go to nearby attractions for a walk. It not only satisfies the travel desire, but also does not incur too high expenses. According to Ctrip data, bookings for domestic niche tourist destinations such as Zibo, Yanbian, Fangchenggang, Jiuquan, Nanyang, Guangyuan, Chengde, Yichun, Qufu, and Ulanqab have increased by more than 10 times year-on-year. Holiday tourism data and market information once again demonstrate that tourists are not only the definers of the tourism industry, but also the definers of resource value and destination image.

03

Traditional business models represented by travel agencies, scenic spots, and hotels are returning to the public eye as creators of a better life

In the past three years, restrictions on travel and contact consumption have further exacerbated the marginalization trend of traditional travel agencies, tourist attractions, and star rated hotels in the tourism economy system. Since the beginning of this year, macro data has repeatedly shown a trend of high growth and quarterly recovery in the tourism market, while micro data shows that returning tourists are no longer traditional tourists. They want scenery, scenes, and a better life above the scenery. Along with tourists returning, there are more cross-border investors and operators who have technology, creativity, and investments following entrepreneurs. In contrast, those seemingly monopolistic landscape and cultural scenic spots, travel agencies with dual advantages in wholesale and retail channels, and star rated hotels with heavy assets, professional teams, and market brands seem to be powerless in the face of the changing times. During the hottest Mid Autumn and National Day holidays in history, they did not gain corresponding market share and commercial profits. Despite the entrepreneurship and innovation of leading enterprises such as tourism groups, there are still imbalances in development and insufficient sense of gain between regions, urban and rural areas, and different business formats. The core indicators such as reception volume and tourism revenue for non top tier mountains, rivers, forests, grasslands, historical and cultural scenic spots, urban business hotels, inbound travel agencies, and tourism retailers far from the source of customers are unsatisfactory, and some enterprises' main operating indicators are even lower than the same period in 2022. If the government and industry cannot pay attention to it and come up with practical solutions to guide it to adapt to market changes, improve research and development innovation capabilities and market competitiveness, and instead allow the sentiment of "excitement belongs to them, I have nothing" to spread, traditional market entities and small and micro enterprises are likely to choose to "lie flat", ultimately affecting the process of high-quality development of the tourism industry.

It is gratifying to see that more and more tourism groups and professional operators have begun to adapt to the diversity and personalization of tourism needs during this holiday, returning to the public eye with digital transformation, organizational change, product research and development, service upgrades, and business model innovation, and achieving remarkable achievements in the holiday economy. Guangzhilv mainly promotes more than 1000 tourist routes including national style, folk customs, moonlight, autumn color, cuisine, and picking. During holidays, more than 2000 domestic and foreign tour groups are organized. The innovative products of online travel merchants such as Ctrip, Qunar, and Mafengwo, including parent-child journeys, exquisite small groups, quality packages, and niche secret destinations, have also gained dual recognition from the market and industry. In the new era of comprehensive development of mass tourism dominated by individual travelers, self-help, and independent travel, in order to promote high-quality development of the tourism industry, we pay attention to every market innovation effort of travel merchants and applaud their commercial achievements.

The number of visitors received by 326 5A level tourist attractions monitored by the China Tourism Research Institute (Data Center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism) increased by 88.7% year-on-year on a comparable basis. Among them, Hangzhou West Lake, Confucius Temple Qinhuai Scenic Belt, Zhongshan Scenic Spot, Jinji Lake Scenic Spot, Hengdian Film and Television City, East Lake Ecological Tourism Scenic Spot, Tang Paradise Scenic Spot, Dali Old City, the No.1 Spring Scenic Spot in the World and the Olympic Park have a large number of tourists. The immersive new products and scenarios of smart tourism have become a new consumption hotspot. Immersive games such as Chang'an Twelve Hour Theme Block, Nishan Holy Land, and Shanghai Planetarium, as well as rich formats such as ancient and modern fusion of Chinese style, cultural and creative industries, and educational research, provide tourists with diverse experiences. Zhengzhou Haichang Ocean World, which opened on September 28th, features the world's first Ultraman themed town and a combination of emperor penguins, polar bears, and walruses called "Emperor Elephants"; The "Spaceship" project recently launched by Zhuhai Chimelong has set seven world records, including the world's largest indoor amusement park and largest aquarium, ushering in a new stage of cultural and tourism IP heavy asset transformation. More tourist attractions and resorts are continuously improving their product content and service quality through content creation and scene creation. 14 theme parks under Happy Valley have launched "National Colors Bring Joy" and "Happy China" themed gameplay, successfully attracting a large number of parent-child customers. The new projects with high-tech content and high cultural creativity, such as the Starlight Parade and naked eye 3D, at Zhengzhou Yinji International Tourism Resort integrate science, education, and parent-child interaction, enhancing tourists' experience and satisfaction. The Hongqiqu Scenic Area has added commercial, hotel, educational, scenic performance, and specialty catering services. Non ticket revenue during holidays has accounted for more than 30% of the total revenue, making a beneficial exploration for the downward adjustment of ticket prices for state-owned key scenic spots in non central cities. Nanxun Ancient Town hosts the Langqiao Music Market, showcasing the "Happy New Landscape" of Fuzhou's Sanfang and Qixiang districts, enhancing the quality of tourist experience through digital technology and cultural creativity. It is gratifying that, as of September 30, the annual reception of Mount Huangshan Scenic Area has broken the historical peak of 3.5 million person times in 2019, so as to avoid reducing the optimization, promoting consumption and strengthening the brand, and run out of the acceleration of high-quality development of classic tourist attractions.

During holidays, tourist travel demand becomes more fragmented, and tourism activities such as accommodation, transportation, scenic spots, and experiential projects are increasingly dependent on comprehensive OTA platforms. The pressure on traditional tourism accommodation industry represented by hotels and homestays continues to emerge. The Garden Hotel and China Grand Hotel under Lingnan Business Travel Group have launched a Chinese aesthetic ink painting exhibition, held live music performances, Mid Autumn Festival lighting ceremonies, room discounts, Mid Autumn Festival family banquets, specialty foods, and carnival activities, making the hotel a city reception room and a new space for a better life during holidays. They have achieved excellent performance with holiday revenue growth of over 30% year-on-year, exceeding 20% of 2019 revenue, providing a hotel sample for tourism innovation in the changing era. Shoulv Home Inn Group is the first tourism accommodation enterprise to cooperate with Tiktok on a full day calendar. Before the holiday, it released tourism strategies in the name of the Travel Research Institute, forming a grass planting effect. The average room price, room rental rate and operating gross profit all exceeded the level of 2019, becoming a demonstration sample of digital marketing of traditional hotels. Huatian Hotel Group provided guests with China-Chic Dim sum made on site during the holiday, which was praised by tourists. Some homestays are equipped with multifunctional facilities such as courtyard barbecue, home theater, camping, etc. to meet the "one-stop" vacation accommodation needs of tourists, making homestays the best link to local life.

04

After three quarters of policy promotion, the tourism economy is moving from unleashing demand potential to a new stage driven by supply innovation

With the diminishing marginal effects of policies, the tourism economy will steadily shift towards rational growth and expected prosperity. With the steady recovery of the supply chain and the gradual normalization of market supply and demand since Labor Day, the prices of hotels and homestays in most destinations are relatively stable. Resort hotels and boutique homestays that cost tens of thousands of yuan per night may still have news value, but it should not be the norm in the market. Combined with the reduction in ticket prices for state-owned key scenic spots and the effect of free policies, the tourism prices during holidays will have a certain degree of increase, but will not fluctuate greatly. The prices of dining, shopping, and destination transportation in the new space of shared living between hosts and guests are only fluctuating within an expected range. During the holiday season, hotel and homestay prices in most destinations remain relatively stable, while prices for dining, shopping, and local transportation fluctuate within an expected range. Affected by high market expectations, the civil aviation system plans to execute a total of nearly 140000 flights, with an average daily flight volume increasing by about 20% compared to the same period in 2019. Compared with the significant increase in transportation capacity, the booking volume has not increased proportionally. As of September 25th, the booking volume of air tickets during the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holiday has only basically recovered to the same period in 2019. Due to overall oversupply, ticket prices for some pre holiday routes have significantly decreased, leading to a certain degree of market volatility and public opinion gathering. I hope that tourism, civil aviation, railway, and transportation systems can strengthen cross industry technical cooperation in data exchange, demand forecasting, and supply-demand balance through post holiday review and inspection.

Governments at all levels will use data science to grasp the situation and stage characteristics of the tourism economy, and promote high-quality development of the tourism industry with a more rational and pragmatic attitude, so that the government belongs to the government and the market belongs to the market. The continuous monitoring of total and structural data indicates that China is still in the transitional stage from mass tourism to moderately prosperous tourism. Tourism and leisure are the basic markets, and a large base, stable growth, and low consumption are the national conditions and tourism situation. According to the survey, only 16.3% of the respondents chose inter provincial travel during this holiday, while 45.4% chose suburban tourism, city tours, community and surrounding strolls. Nearly half of the tourists participated in holiday tourism activities through leisure tours in the surrounding areas, resulting in relatively flat customer flow in destination markets far from the source of customers, and limited reception by traditional travel agencies. Industrial policies and administrative work must not be separated from the fundamentals of tourism economy. Is it realistic for so many provinces and cities to cultivate "trillion dollar industries", "international tourism cities", and "world-class tourism destinations"? It is hoped that the focus of tourism work at all levels of government will gradually shift from holding conferences, issuing policies, branding, and some "show off" activities to practical solutions to the shortcomings of infrastructure and public services, such as the construction of aviation, high-speed rail, highways and other infrastructure in tourist resorts in the central and western regions, upgrading reception facilities and talent cultivation industries, as well as difficulties in booking, entering parks, parking in popular destinations, scenic spots and cultural and museum venues, and difficulties in using toilets in economically underdeveloped tourist areas and rural tourist attractions, which affect tourists' experience and satisfaction. Truly achieving the goal of 'what tourists hope for, the government must respond', continuously improving the sense of gain and satisfaction of the majority of tourists. With the improvement of infrastructure and public services, as well as the influx of more tourists, investment institutions, resource developers, and tourism operators will follow suit. The tourism ecosystem, including talent, technology, education, training, advertising, and legal services, will also be nurtured. At the end of the day, investment, financing, exhibitions, roadshows, sales, and transactions are all market behaviors. Allowing the market to belong to the market and the government to belong to the government is what the construction of tourism destinations in the new era should look like.

Excellent literary and artistic works, public cultural projects, and high-quality tourism products constitute tourists' new imagination of a beautiful life in the destination. More and more local governments and tourism industry recognize contemporary tourism development concepts such as "life above landscape", "from scenery to scene", and "enjoying the distance and sharing with guests", and implement them in tourism destination construction, tourism project investment, and holiday market supply. We are delighted to see that the deep integration of culture and tourism is not only reflected in the creative inheritance and innovative development of excellent traditional culture, but also in the cultivation of new urban and rural cultural tourism scenes in the socialist advanced culture of national rejuvenation and people's happiness. During the holiday period, Zhengzhou Xinzheng launched four cultural relics and archaeology study tours for the first time. A total of 41 music festivals and dozens of concerts were held in Jingdezhen, Foshan, Changzhou, Handan, Zhenjiang, Nanyang and other places. There were also stage arts such as "Dream of the Red Chamber" and "The Founding of the Millennium", as well as film and television works such as "The Volunteer Army", providing rich and colorful spiritual enjoyment and cultural choices for tourists and citizens. Zhejiang has launched ten excellent Asian Games cultural and tourism routes under the theme of "Watching Asian Games and Touring Zhejiang", and held the first Space Island Music Festival in Yanqing, Beijing, allowing tourists to immerse themselves in Chinese aerospace culture and experience new achievements in the construction of the new era. From the perspective of sharing a better living space between hosts and guests, it is becoming increasingly difficult to separate tourism from fields such as culture, sports, technology, commerce, and agriculture. Tourism investment institutions and operators will eventually become service providers for a better life.

Author | Edited by Dai Bin | Reviewed by Xue Shiyi | Source by Yang Liqiong | Reproduction by China Tourism Research Institute (Data Center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism) Please indicate the author and source