HOME Special Research

Dai Bin, think tanker says: Tourism industry moving from recovery to prosperity

2025-04-16 字号:[ ]

Recently, our Dean Dai Bin published a signed article entitled "Tourism Industry from Recovery to Prosperity" in the Think Tank Edition of Guangming Daily, which explained the basic characteristics of rapid recovery from the perspective of policy and supply side, and proposed the main strategies for prosperity and development from the aspects of improving the modernization level of tourism governance system and governance capacity. The full text is shared as follows:

This year, during the New Year's Day, Spring Festival and Qingming Festival, tourists from all over the country surged. During the Labor Day holiday, residents had a strong desire to travel, and the confidence of the tourism industry rose simultaneously, opening a channel for the development of the tourism economy throughout the year to start high and move steadily. The tourism economy, which is based on the domestic market and develops in a coordinated manner with inbound and outbound tourism, is moving from a rapid recovery to a new stage of prosperity and development with rational consumption expectations, growing investment confidence and accumulated innovation momentum. It is estimated that in 2024, the number of domestic tourists and domestic tourism revenue will exceed 6 billion and 6 trillion yuan respectively, and the number of inbound and outbound tourists and international tourism revenue will exceed 264 million and 107 billion US dollars respectively. The policy side and the supply side move in opposite directions, laying the foundation for the long-term improvement of the tourism economy.

From the policy perspective, the consistency of macro-control policies and inclusive and prudent market supervision are more effective. Policy tools from comprehensive departments such as finance, development and reform, and finance, including medium- and long-term treasury bonds, equipment renewal, market entity cultivation, and rural revitalization, have direct effects and profound impacts on the medium- and long-term development environment of tourism, the quality of public services, and tourism employment investment. As residents' lives return to normal, the cultural and tourism departments pay more attention to production safety, tourist safety, cultural safety, and ideological security. Tourism regulations pay more attention to details related to tourist satisfaction, such as unreasonable low-price tours, study tours, difficulty in booking cultural and museum venues, and "scalper tickets" for concerts. Harbin's ice and snow tourism is booming, Fujian's tour of gods is "hot" during the Spring Festival, and the "monkey and cat" incident at Kunming Zoo has reversed the popularity of tourist destinations such as Qianling Mountain and Emei Mountain. Gansu Tianshui Malatang has taken over Shandong Zibo barbecue and become the new top of food tourism. Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou and other places no longer require "face recognition" to check in. The continuous efforts of various regions and departments have brought more goodwill and warmth to tourists and improved the experience and quality of travel.

From the supply side, while the domestic tourism market is improving and expanding, the effect of technology empowering the high-quality development of cultural tourism integration is more obvious. The market is further sinking, and small and medium-sized cities, central towns and key villages in developed areas are emerging tourist destinations and growing sources of tourists. About 72.3% of the country's civil airports are distributed in small and medium-sized cities such as Yanji, Tianshui, Zhangye, Golog, Altay, Hailar, Bole, Yichun, and Arxan. These small airport cities have attracted the attention and visits of tourists of all ages with their unique scenic spots, resorts, blocks, business districts, vegetable markets, and high cost-effectiveness of accommodation, catering, entertainment and shopping consumption, and high accessibility. Market entities that come across borders, especially new market entities driven by capital, technology and cultural creativity, will have more opportunities for growth. Pop Mart has entered the city park, and together with Luo Baby Starlight Theater and Legoland, it has opened the door to the "small and beautiful" urban renewal. With the help of technology companies, various places have made the nights of cities and neighborhoods more logical and story-telling through cultural and artistic forms, increasing the possibility of high-frequency consumption. Hello, Meituan, and Qingju have launched large-scale shared bicycles and electric bicycles in tourist and leisure cities and resorts, giving tourists more choices in the field of small transportation. Camping tourism, ice and snow tourism, food tourism, sports tourism, marine tourism, tourism performances, as well as suburban leisure and urban roaming are constantly being renewed and iterated. The climax of a new round of entrepreneurship and innovation in the tourism industry is accelerating, and people's potential willingness to travel is constantly being transformed into effective tourism demand.

Due to the multiple favorable effects of high tourism market demand, consumption recovery and policy release, the supply side of the tourism industry has further rebounded and optimized. In the first quarter of 2024, the national tourism economic operation comprehensive index reached 115.11, with a month-on-month increase for three consecutive quarters, close to the same period in 2019. In the next three months, the willingness of urban and rural residents to travel is 89.3, and the confidence of entrepreneurs has rebounded to 100.25. The strengthening of the two core leading indicators has established a technical channel for steady growth. In order to further stabilize tourism market expectations, boost industry confidence and expand consumer demand, efforts should be made to continuously improve the modernization level of tourism governance system and governance capacity.

First, we should implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference to ensure that tourism consumption expectations are stable and rising. Tourism economic policies will shift from the countercyclical regulation on the demand side in the past four years to cross-cycle regulation that takes into account both demand-side management and supply-side structural reform. As the production and life of urban and rural residents return to normal, the release of tourism consumption potential depends more and more on endogenous market variables such as leisure time and disposable income. The policy focus should shift to the supply of high-quality tourism products, the improvement of tourism infrastructure and public service systems, and the guidance of tourism investment, with a focus on cultivating new market entities such as tourism groups with market competitiveness and social influence.

Secondly, we will continue to expand the market base for tourism consumption, focus on the sinking market and demand upgrade, and pragmatically promote the domestic tourism improvement plan. Guided by tourist satisfaction, we will further improve the tourism public service system for individual tourists and continuously improve tourist satisfaction and sense of gain. We will accelerate the construction of a number of world-class tourist attractions and resorts with profound cultural heritage, national-level tourist leisure cities and blocks with distinctive cultural characteristics, world-class tourist cities, and international tourist destinations, and enrich the supply of excellent literary and artistic works and high-quality tourism products. We will cultivate a number of new formats such as "aviation + tourism", "high-speed rail + tourism", "highway + tourism", "shipping + tourism", "tourism + festivals", "tourism + shopping", and "tourism + art" with strong cultural attributes, high technological content, and strong demonstration and driving force, and guide destination cities, investment institutions, and market entities to create more tourism spaces and consumption scenarios for new demands.

Finally, guide local governments to formulate tourism development goals in accordance with local conditions and in a reasonable manner, and prevent tourism marketing from becoming superficial and political achievements from becoming short-term projects. Influenced by the prosperous signals of the tourism market at the beginning of the year, the development expectations of the tourism industry in various places have been greatly improved. Many provinces and cities have proposed development goals such as "building a world-class tourist destination" and "creating a trillion-level tourism industry", as well as world-class tourist attractions and resorts, national-level tourist cities and blocks, high-level tourist attractions and high-star tourist accommodation facilities. Relevant departments should strengthen guidance, issue regulatory signals in a timely manner, and guide local governments to formulate scientific and reasonable tourism development strategies. The emergence of some "Internet celebrity" cities has injected emotional value into tourism development and brought market value, but administrative resources that should have been used for infrastructure, public services and policy innovation should not be over-consumed for short-term online attention.

Author | Dai Bin Source | Guangming Theory Editor | Liu Xin Please indicate the source for reprinting