Dai Bin | What has happened, what is going through, and what is coming - tourism under the influence of the COVID-19 epidemic

Recently, President Dai Bin was invited to attend the "World Tourism Alliance · Xianghu Dialogue" and the "China Asia Africa Tourism Aviation Forum" held in Hangzhou and Shanghai, and made a keynote speech. The full text is as follows: First, what has happened: unprecedented impact and effective response to the sudden COVID-19 have unprecedented impact on the tourism industry in China and other countries and regions around the world, directly leading to a precipitous decline in the international tourism industry in 2020. In the first quarter, 96% of global tourist destinations implemented travel restrictions and 90% completely or specifically closed their borders. During the Spring Festival, the Chinese government's cultural and tourism departments, in accordance with the directive of "putting people's life safety and physical health first", promptly adjusted the tourism market policy from "prospering the market and ensuring supply" to "stopping clusters, closing scenic areas, and preventing and controlling epidemics". As a result, the number of tourist trips worldwide has dropped, with international tourist numbers reaching their lowest point in April. With the emergence of epidemic prevention and control measures in some countries and regions, the domestic tourism market has gradually recovered since May. China has opened up its provincial tourism business since March 14th, and the number of tourists received during the labor holiday from May 1st to 5th has recovered by 53.5% on a comparable basis. Two months later, China further resumed cross provincial tourism business, and the domestic tourism market further improved. Due to the impact of epidemic prevention and control measures in various countries and regions, the pace of recovery in the tourism market shows significant differences. Overall, countries and regions that have implemented early and strict prevention and control measures have experienced early and rapid recovery in their markets, while those that have implemented late and lax prevention and control measures have experienced late and slow recovery. During China's National Day holiday from October 1st to 8th, a total of 637 million domestic tourists were received, a year-on-year recovery of 80%. "The world is busy marching, and the Chinese are busy traveling.". We have also noticed that despite the rapid recovery of the domestic market, the contraction of Chinese citizens' outbound tourism consumption has significantly affected the international tourism economy, especially the international tourism market prosperity index in East Asia, Southeast Asia, West Asia, and North Africa.

Figure 1: International tourist numbers from 2020 to 2019 (data source: World Bank)

Figure 2: Changes in International Tourism Industry in Various Regions in the First Half of 2020 (Data Source: World Bank)

After the initial panic and anxiety, the tourism industry gradually regained its composure and actively carried out self rescue and industry mutual assistance work while participating in the fight against the epidemic. After June, the tourism industry in major countries and regions has to varying degrees resumed work and production. Traditional travel agencies, hotels, and leisure and entertainment industries have begun to focus on the growing local leisure and short distance travel services for the public. New products and services have been created, such as Shanghai Chunqiu Travel Agency's "Urban Micro Tourism", China Travel Service's "International Quality Domestic Tour", Ctrip's "Live Streaming and Cargo Delivery", Kaiyuan Travel Industry's "Suburban Micro Vacation", Singapore Airlines and Changi Airport's joint "Destination Free Flight", Etihad Airways' return to China, and the launch of a new health and hygiene plan. We are pleased to see that cultural creativity and technological applications have become new highlights of tourism during the epidemic, and the self repair and R&D innovation momentum of the tourism industry has begun to gather.

Figure 3 Impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on tourism in various regions of the world (data source: UNWTO)

In the process of epidemic prevention and control and resumption of work and production, governments and international organizations of various countries have played an active and proactive role. Based on authoritative data for policy research, trend analysis, and information dissemination, effectively avoiding industry wide panic. UNWTO has established the Global Tourism Crisis Committee (GTCC) specifically to address the crisis in tourism development caused by the pandemic. Under the joint prevention and control mechanism, the Chinese government has continuously held ministerial office meetings, press conferences, and authorized professional institutions to release data and hold professional symposiums, which have played a positive and effective role in stabilizing industry confidence and consolidating development consensus in a timely manner. The continuous introduction and comprehensive effects of fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies, such as temporarily refunding travel agency quality deposits, providing discounted payments for tourism enterprises, reducing taxes and insurance, have provided strong support for tourism enterprises to overcome difficulties. Especially in providing professional training for sustainable employment, valuable human resources have been maximally retained. As long as the land and people are still there, it doesn't matter if we lose a year or two of harvest. Governments of various countries have also timely released a package of plans for the restart of the tourism industry and the recovery of domestic tourism, ensuring that the overall prevention and control of the epidemic and the resumption of work and production are always in a controllable and visible state. In this process, the government is also continuously improving the governance system and capacity in the tourism sector. In the past ten months, the impact of the COVID-19 has been enormous, and the tourism industry has responded effectively. We lost a temporary market, gained valuable economy, and gathered the courage and ability to overcome crises. 2、 Experiencing: Restoring Confidence and Accumulating Momentum Throughout history, the tourism industry has been accompanied by crises, but has never collapsed. Every successful response is the accumulation of experience, and every accumulation of experience makes the tourism industry better. As writer Ernest Hemingway said in "The Old Man and the Sea," Man can be destroyed but not defeated. In the process of human society, crises come again and again, and civilization develops again and again in overcoming fear. Every day, there will be birth, aging, sickness, and death. We will be cautious and pursue the future, but no one will guard against sadness and let fear erode the courage to live. Compared to not doing things out of fear of failure, it seems easier to take risks and do the right thing, but in the face of difficulties and challenges, what humans need most is the wisdom to forge ahead. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the tourism industries of countries around the world, as well as governments, industries, and society, have been working towards the prosperity and revitalization of the tourism industry. The global tourism industry has never been as united as it is today. Governments around the world are taking measures towards a common goal to support the bottom line and seek revitalization, in order to reserve momentum for the recovery and revitalization of the international tourism industry. Although the COVID-19 has temporarily affected the income of the tourism industry, the number of tourists, etc., with the promotion of vaccine research and development and the correct application of public health measures, the epidemic has been alleviated, while the early panic, anxiety and confusion began to be replaced by rational, calm and active response, and tourism consumption confidence began to recover steadily. This is the most powerful foundation and reliable guarantee for us to overcome crises and meet future challenges. We have noticed that over half of the countries and regions have cautiously relaxed tourism restrictions. China's gross domestic product in the first three quarters increased by 0.7% year-on-year at comparable prices, receiving a total of 1.933 billion domestic tourists, which has recovered to 42% of last year. In the fourth quarter, the willingness of urban and rural residents to travel has returned to the same level as the same period last year. At present, China is coordinating epidemic prevention and control with the resumption of work, production, and business, while systematically planning a high-quality development strategy for the integration of culture and tourism in the next five years. Affected by market recovery and policy effects, the traditional driving force of tourism industry revitalization is recovering, and innovative driving force is emerging. At present, the tourism industry is still the most investment worthy preferred field, and technological progress is constantly enriching and innovating tourism experience methods. Characteristic cultures catalyze innovation in tourism formats, and market entities actively explore transformation and upgrading. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, relying on the huge domestic tourism market, some outbound tourism demand has shifted to the domestic market, which has to some extent promoted the transformation and upgrading of the tourism industry. The night tourism, rural tourism, self driving tourism, surrounding tourism, and health tourism markets have accelerated their heating up, and the mid to short distance tourism market has hit the bottom and rebounded more clearly. The domestic tourism market is operating on a benign track of "prosperity first, prosperity later". At the same time, the development of new urbanization, new infrastructure, and education cultivation is also effectively promoting the bottoming out and recovery of tourism. The effects of continuously optimized visa policies and travel subsidy policies under the Generalized System of Preferences are being released, and are positively promoting the recovery and prosperity of the tourism industry. In addition to the inbound and outbound tourism market, the domestic tourism economy of major countries and regions around the world may follow a W-shaped recovery trajectory in 2020. From the situation in China, U-shaped is highly likely to occur. 3、 Coming soon: Market changes and industrial restructuring. People's longing for a better travel life and cultural leisure will only increase in the future, and tourism demand will only be temporarily suppressed, but it will never disappear due to epidemics or other public health events, natural disasters, and terrorist attacks. It should be pointed out that the consumption patterns and organizational forms of tourism are undergoing obvious changes, with individual travelers, customized tours, and self driving tours becoming mainstream. To this end, we must maintain confidence in development and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern that focuses on building a domestic tourism market, with international and domestic tourism markets promoting each other and prospering together. Rationally guide the consumption trends of nearby tourism, rural tourism, self driving tourism, and other close range tourism, so that tourism and leisure can be more deeply embedded into the daily lives of the general public, discovering beautiful scenery around them and experiencing the beauty of daily life. From the perspective of international epidemic prevention and control situation, there is no sign of easing the pressure of "preventing importation from the outside and rebounding from the inside", and opening up the inbound and outbound tourism market has not yet become a policy option for diplomacy, immigration, customs, ports, and tourism departments. We have also noticed that some cruise companies have proposed "destination free navigation" and "technical docking", and some tourism promotion agencies have proposed the concept of "tourism bubble", but from the current situation, there are no conditions for formal implementation. What we need to do is to orderly promote mid to long distance tourism between domestic regions in response to changes in the epidemic prevention and control situation, plan to enter the outbound tourism market as soon as possible, make policy reserves for it, and conduct necessary stress tests. There may not be a timetable for restoring the international tourism market at the moment, but there cannot be a roadmap. Affected by leisure consumption and the tourism market, wine making experiences, museum visits, sports events, indoor dining, and entertainment all need to be redesigned to serve smaller tourism groups and meet the needs of more outdoor activities and limited social distance. Restaurants, hotels, airports, and public spaces are beginning to popularize contactless services and electronic payments, making the use of robots more widespread and demanding higher cultural literacy from tourism professionals. The traditional world tourism development pattern is being reconstructed, and a new world tourism development system is being formed. The role of public sectors such as multilateral international organizations, government agencies, and public institutions in the long-term development planning, infrastructure construction, as well as safety, environment, research and development, and public health of the tourism industry will be further highlighted. Tourism has never become a popular choice for the general public as it is today, tourists have never integrated into the daily life scenes of the destination as it is today, and the tourism industry has never been affected by the disappearance of traditional boundaries and the rapid gathering of innovative momentum as it is today. After this epidemic, the tourism industry cannot go back to the past no matter what. We need to adapt to the new changes in mass tourism and well-off tourism, and make good use of science and technology, cultural creativity, art and fashion to lead the high-quality development of the tourism industry. All countries, regions, governments, and industries should strengthen experience summarization and achievement sorting, consolidate development consensus, and provide ideological momentum and policy support for the prosperity and revitalization of the global tourism industry. In order for the people to walk more freely on this blue planet and for the tourism rights of all humanity, we call on governments, international organizations, and the tourism industry of all countries to assess the situation, gather consensus, and move towards the same goal. The government tourism management department should timely assess the epidemic prevention and control situation with the health, immigration, and security departments, eliminate temporary travel restrictions as soon as possible, and work together to promote the early revival of the global tourism industry. The public and private sectors should deepen multi form and multi-level tourism cooperation, guiding the tourism industry towards a prosperous, green, open, shared, and more sustainable future.