Dai Bin | Embracing comprehensive recovery and building a modern tourism industry system

On the afternoon of February 22, 2021, the online release and seminar of the results of the "China Tourism Economy Blue Book (No.13)" series were held in Beijing. Dean Dai Bin made a concluding speech, and the full text is as follows:

Dear colleagues in the tourism industry and media friends,

hello everyone!

In the past year, the COVID-19 has had an unprecedented impact on the tourism industry. According to data released by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the inbound and outbound tourism market almost completely stagnated in 2020, with 2.879 billion domestic tourists, a year-on-year decrease of 52.1%; The total tourism revenue was 2.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 61.1%. From the data, both in terms of the market and industry, last year was the most difficult year for the tourism industry since the reform and opening up. Looking back now, the most difficult period should have been after last year's Spring Festival: facing the sudden sudden sudden brake, including government regulatory departments, the tourism industry, and the tourism market, they were not fully prepared psychologically, feeling somewhat at a loss and even unable to see the direction, allowing panic to spread. Under the strong leadership and unified deployment of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, local governments, industries, and tourism administrative departments have been working towards each other, effectively curbing the spread of panic and negative emotions. Starting from the second quarter, the tourism industry has shifted from a comprehensive shutdown to a prevention and control oriented resumption of work. Looking at the year-on-year decline in the domestic tourism market over the four quarters, the first quarter saw a decrease of -83.4%, the second quarter saw a decrease of -51.0%, the third quarter saw a decrease of -34.3%, and the fourth quarter saw a decrease of -32%, with the decline narrowing quarter by quarter. From the two indicators of the number of domestic tourists received nationwide and tourism revenue during major holidays, Qingming Festival recovered by 31.6% and 19.3% year-on-year, respectively; Labor Day saw a year-on-year recovery of 53.5% and 36.7%, respectively; Loong Boat Festival recovered 50.9% and 31.2% year on year; The National Day and Mid Autumn Festival holidays have recovered 79.0% and 69.9% year-on-year respectively, and the degree of year-on-year recovery has been increasing quarter by quarter. The tourism economy has entered a new channel of orderly recovery to comprehensive recovery since the fourth quarter, and the domestic tourism market has walked out of a U-shaped curve of left long and right short throughout the year.

In the past year, the tourism administrative department has temporarily withdrawn the quality guarantee deposit of travel agencies, adjusted the direction of the tourism development fund in conjunction with the Ministry of Finance, and promoted policies such as local special fund subsidized loans, government procurement subsidies for scenic spots and accommodation industries, which have had a direct impact on the relief and assistance of various types of tourism enterprises at different times. Unlike the SARS period in 2003, this round of relief policies adopts the principle of "universal rather than special, market rather than administrative". Any administrative measures during a special period are 'emergency relief, not poverty alleviation', while industrial policies are 'supporting the good, not the poor'. Neither is omnipotent, let alone the fallback clauses of unemployment relief and pension insurance provided by civil affairs departments. In the long run, it also depends on market vitality and industrial innovation drive. In 2019, the number of outbound tourists reached 155 million, and overseas tourism consumption exceeded 1 trillion yuan. Affected by the epidemic, these outbound tourism consumption stocks should and can also be transformed into domestic tourism consumption increments. However, based on the 2020 tourism economy operation data, apart from tax-free shopping on Hainan's outlying islands and the surrounding leisure and vacation market in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, this trillion yuan of high-end consumption has returned to the domestic market, but has not been released into the domestic tourism market, and cannot form an incremental effect. The reasons for this are firstly due to the cautious consumption caused by the epidemic, as well as the insufficient effective supply caused by lagging innovation.

In the past year, frontline market entities represented by the top 20 tourism groups have actively taken on responsibilities and made remarkable achievements in investment, research and development, and operation. Amidst the turbulent seas, one can truly display their heroic qualities! In this regard, the "2020 China Tourism Group Development Report" compiled by the China Tourism Research Institute (Data Center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism) and the keynote speeches of the Development Forum have provided systematic explanations. From statistical data such as resumption rates, room occupancy rates, and growth rates of tourist reception in various industries, as well as online public opinion, it can be seen that there is still significant uncertainty in the tourism market situation and industrial development pattern, or rather, the recovery is not linear. After more than a year of "rapid decline - recovery of intra provincial tourism - recovery of inter provincial tourism - flow control in some areas - coordinated epidemic prevention and control with resumption of work and business", a considerable number of travel service providers have indeed gone bankrupt, and some traditional formats such as travel agencies, scenic spots, and homestays are facing a life and death test. In the face of the COVID-19, which has such a wide range of impact, such a deep degree of influence and such a long recovery time, any "retaliatory rebound theory" that hopes to accomplish its contribution to the epidemic, as well as the "long-term depression theory" of negative actions, are theoretically untenable and misleading in practice. When panic no longer spreads, urban and rural residents gradually adapt to the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, calm down from early panic emotions, adjust the pace of work and life, and focus on prevention and control, tourism, and leisure. The vast number of tourism industry players have also calmed down, knowing where we are, who needs us, who is with us, and also knowing how to go in the future. More importantly, the backbone of the tourism industry still exists, and technological innovation and digital momentum are beginning to accumulate and promote high-quality development of the tourism industry. Once the guiding ideology and development direction are clear, even on the darkest night, we have confidence in welcoming the dawn.

Dear colleagues and friends,

In the new year, the bottoming out of the tourism market and the orderly recovery of the tourism economy are irreversible. Starting from the Spring Festival travel rush on January 13th, relevant agencies are monitoring the daily number of visitors to tourist attractions across the country. Affected by the sporadic outbreaks of the epidemic and the tightening of prevention and control measures in some areas of Shijiazhuang, Beijing, and Northeast China, the market showed a clear downturn in the first two weeks of the Spring Festival travel rush. Starting from the third week, the number of visitors to tourist attractions on weekdays has stabilized at 6 million people per day, and on weekends it has stabilized at 10 million people per day, indicating that the most important observation indicator of tourism market prosperity has entered a steady upward trend. On the first day of the Chinese New Year, the number of visitors to tourist attractions exceeded 50 million for the first time, and continued to rise in the second and third days of the lunar new year. Whether it is the top tourist attractions such as the Forbidden City and Liangzhu, or open scenic spots such as Tiananmen Square, Shanghai Bund, Hangzhou West Lake, and Monument to the people's Liberation in Chongqing, whether it is a historical and cultural block, urban leisure business circle, or new tourism projects such as Zhengzhou Jianye Film Town, Yinji Tourism Resort, etc., the passenger flow and consumption in many places have recovered to the normal boom before the epidemic.

The seven day tourism market data released by various regions during the Spring Festival holiday further confirms the orderly recovery trend of the tourism market in 2021. According to monitoring data from the China Tourism Research Institute and the China Telecom Joint Laboratory, domestic tourism revenue during the Spring Festival holiday of the Year of the Ox has achieved year-on-year positive growth since the second day of the year (February 13th), and the number of tourists has achieved year-on-year positive growth since the third day of the year (February 14th). Until the end of the holiday, both the year-on-year and month on month growth of the two core indicators showed an accelerated positive trend. The travel and tourist reception volume of residents in Guangdong, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Chongqing, Beijing, Zhejiang, Hunan, Shaanxi and other places has exceeded or approached the level of the same period of the 2019 Spring Festival. During holidays, the average travel time for tourists is 1.64 days, with an overnight rate of 29.7%, and the travel rate for rural residents is 19.7%; The average travel radius is 133.9 kilometers, and the average recreational radius at the destination is 7.6 kilometers, a year-on-year increase of 49.9%. Over 90% of tourists participated in cultural and leisure activities; The satisfaction level of tourists is 83.6. This is an exciting set of data, which means that the majority of urban and rural residents have adapted to the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, and are engaging in normal leisure activities and tourism consumption with a calm mind. Although the cross provincial and group tourism markets are still in a warm and cold range, basic demands such as urban leisure tourism, suburban vacation tourism, parent-child tourism, and study tours are showing a strong recovery trend in the form of self-help, self driving, and independent travel.

In the new year, with the upgrading of tourism consumption and the sinking of the market, the trend of stable and fluctuating demand for leisure will further manifest. The public culture, cultural leisure, and artistic atmosphere of the source area have a more significant impact on tourists' destination choices, consumption decisions, and consumption behaviors; The technological innovation and digitalization level of the destination will have a more significant impact on tourists' sense of gain, security, and satisfaction; The pursuit of personalization and quality by tourists has a more significant impact on the self-service, sharing, and fragmentation of tourism consumption; The impact of capital factors, technology, education, and creative energy on the modernization, decentralization, and innovation of the tourism industry is more pronounced. The "four more obvious" will be the main line of the evolution of the tourism market this year and during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and it is also a reality that governments at all levels must face to do a good job in tourism work. There are still many tourism agencies and market entities that have not realized the trend of reconstructing the development pattern of the tourism economy. They still regard travel agencies, tourist attractions, and star rated hotels as the entirety of the tourism industry, natural resources and cultural heritage as the entirety of tourism resources, and undifferentiated advertising, exhibitions, and celebrity endorsements as the entirety of tourism promotion. It may seem lively, but they will eventually end up with the loneliness depicted by Feng Zikai as "people disperse, a crescent moon like a hook". The resources are still the same as before, but the market is no longer the same. Tourists want beautiful scenery, but more importantly, a beautiful life above the scenery. The diversification of cultural leisure and tourism consumption, as well as the stratification of audience groups, have turned the deliberate guidance of traditional thinking led teams towards young people into a mirage. Mr. He Bing, an artist, gave a speech on Bilibili's "Back Waves" last year. The front waves dreamed of freedom of choice, while the back waves already had the freedom of choice. The Z generation of digital survival no longer follows the decision-making model of "authority obedience", but uses digital technology to express their consumption opinions more freely, "I make my own decisions" and "I share your beautiful life". With the increase of flexible work schedules, shared employees, and freelancers, the boundary between work and leisure is becoming blurred, and flexible switching between work schedules, workspaces, and travel scenes has become a reality to some extent. Business travel used to be about work, but the younger generation of professionals have integrated travel and leisure together. The new concept of work as travel and travel as leisure will bring new driving forces for the transformation of the tourism market and the entire tourism economic system.

In the new year, social stability, rule of law environment, economic growth, and trade development will bring real possibilities for the recovery and prosperity of the business travel market. We have a world-class market size advantage. In 2019, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41.2 trillion yuan. At present, China is the largest trading partner of more than 120 countries and regions in the world. The total international trade volume has still achieved positive growth during the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020. The role of the global trade center, energy trading center and financial center is becoming increasingly obvious. The comprehensive rule of law, technological innovation, and industrial revitalization strategy will further promote the optimization of the business environment, including tourism, and provide a realistic possibility for greater consumption upgrading and market sinking. 120 million market entities, a digital economy scale of 31.3 trillion yuan, a mobile payment penetration rate of 94.7%, and a total mobile payment amount of 266.2 trillion yuan provide the most solid consumer guarantee for the recovery and prosperity of the travel service industry, tourism accommodation industry, and tourism leisure market. Huangqiao Town in Taixing, Jiangsu Province, which produces about one-third to half of the world's violins, Fuwu Town in Changle County, Shandong Province, which accounts for one-third of the world's guitar exports, Xingcheng City in Liaoning Province, which accounts for one-third of the world's swimwear sales and half of the country's total, Jiangshan City, which produces badminton, Xuchang City, which produces wigs, Shaogang Town, which produces steel tape measures, Changshu, which produces down jackets, and so on. These industries and towns are directly related to the tourism industry. They, together with Yiwu Small Commodity Market, Nantong Home Textile City, and Beijing Dahongmen Wholesale Market, form a strong support for the business travel market and also serve as a commercial innovation space for the tourism market to sink.

We must have a holistic view of the situation and be adept at grasping the main contradictions and their main aspects. Just because the Yangtze River and Yellow River flow from west to east into the Pacific Ocean, it cannot be denied that some areas have a north-south flow or even a reverse flow; We cannot ignore the convergence of small streams into rivers and rush into the ocean just because of the latter. Objective and rational viewpoints are different from subjective and emotional expressions of opinion. They require authoritative data, frontline research, and professional discussions to support them. It is not appropriate to make vague conclusions without theoretical and data support for the sake of discourse power or even for the sake of rhythm. The normalization of epidemic prevention and control in 2021, the recovery of the market in 2021, the reconstruction of the boundaries of the tourism industry, the creation of shared scenes between hosts and guests, cultural leadership, and technological innovation will all be exciting new changes in the tourism economy. Based on leading indicators such as tourism consumption willingness and recent market data, as well as research on tourism economy monitoring and special topics, the China Tourism Research Institute (Data Center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism) predicts the main indicators of tourism economy operation in 2021 as follows: the number of domestic tourists for the whole year is 4.1 billion, and the domestic tourism revenue is 3.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 42% and 48% respectively over the previous year. Taking into account the international situation and the pressure of epidemic prevention and control to prevent external importation and internal rebound, the inbound and outbound tourism market this year is still not optimistic. However, starting from the third quarter, there will be an expected recovery in the Hong Kong, Macao and business tourism markets.

Dear colleagues and friends,

In the current and future period, we have full confidence in the Party and the state's coordinated efforts to prevent and control the epidemic and resume work and production, and maintain optimistic expectations for the prosperous development of the tourism economy. 2021 is a year of decisive victory in poverty alleviation and the comprehensive construction of a moderately prosperous society, a year of embarking on a new journey of building a socialist modernized country, and a year of implementing the 14th Five Year Plan for national economic and social development, including tourism. The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the people's pursuit of a better life have provided a strong foundation and driving force for the normalization of epidemic prevention and control in the revitalization of the tourism industry. In the new year, the quality guarantee deposit of travel agencies will still remain in the hands of enterprises, and support from tourism development funds, public finance and infrastructure investment, finance and securities departments will continue to be exerted. It is worth looking forward to that the new development stage, new development concept, and new development pattern of mass tourism will gradually emerge through important speeches and instructions from Party and state leaders, revisions and improvements of tourism laws and regulations, central government documents, national and industry standards, innovative work tools, and other means. Relying on the strong domestic tourism market, adhering to the principle of tourism for the people, focusing on meeting distinctive and multi-level needs, accelerating the construction of smart tourism guided by content creation and scene creation, promoting tourism development and governance in accordance with the law, advancing the integration of culture and tourism, and promoting high-quality development of the tourism industry are the main themes of tourism work in the current and future periods. We have ample reason to believe that a new era is coming in which a nation's tourism rights are more prominent and tourism entrepreneurship and innovation are more active.

In the current and future period, we need to further expand infrastructure, public services, and social investment, implement innovation driven strategies, balance the upgrading of tourism consumption and market sinking, and build a modern tourism industry system. In order to implement the spirit of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the Central Economic Work Conference, the country will further enhance the strategic positioning of the tourism industry. While consolidating consumption stock and expanding consumption increment, it will increase efforts in scientific and technological innovation and digital application, and accelerate the construction of a modern tourism system. Public information indicates that the country will build a number of world-class tourist attractions and resorts with rich cultural heritage, create a number of national level tourism and leisure cities and blocks with distinctive cultural characteristics, and make significant progress in rural tourism and red tourism construction. To this end, the finance, development and reform departments, as well as the central and local governments, will increase investment in infrastructure, public services, and tourism projects. In the current situation, the government's investment in infrastructure and public services will play an anchoring role in stabilizing the fundamentals of the tourism economy and supporting the expectation of cyclical recovery. Prudent adjustments and relaxed financial policies can also help reduce the direct financing costs of tourism groups and listed companies, and promote the healthy and sustainable development of tourist attractions, vacation areas, leisure districts, and tourism complexes.

In the current and future period, the government tourism administrative department should strengthen the classification guidance and precise implementation of policies for traditional and emerging, state-owned and private, large, medium, small and micro tourism markets. The establishment of enterprises led by financial capital, project investment led by industrial capital, and product research and development led by market entities are key drivers of tourism economic growth. With the deepening implementation of the innovation driven development strategy, technological innovations such as artificial intelligence, aerospace technology, 5G, high-speed transportation, and new infrastructure investments are seeking to accelerate their integration with tourism consumption scenarios, which will help upgrade traditional tourism to modern tourism. During the epidemic, I repeatedly said two sentences, one of which was' With this epidemic, the tourism industry can never go back to the past '. This statement does not mean that traditional tourism formats such as travel agencies, star rated hotels, and tourist attractions have no way out, nor can it be interpreted as ignoring the survival of enterprises. On the contrary, it is aimed at promoting travel agencies, star rated hotels, and tourist attractions to steadily move towards new spaces of beautiful living such as travel services, tourism accommodation, and leisure vacations. To support each other and forget each other in the world of rivers and lakes, that's probably what it means. The tourism industry does not have a natural main force, nor does it have a static main force. More and more social capital, technology, and talent elements are entering the tourism industry, and under the influence of market laws, they are competing to provide tourists with better quality consumption choices, which is exactly the meaning of the theme of "more national participation and higher quality sharing". Ouling Investment, Sequoia China's privatization offer for Kaiyuan Hotel, the strategic cooperation between Meituan and Dongcheng, as well as the strategic entry of technology companies such as Gaode, Alibaba, and Huawei into the tourism industry, indicate that new investment institutions and market entities that have crossed over are bringing more vitality to the tourism market. The project development model of "introducing tourism concepts, following up on real estate development, and comprehensively balancing cash flow" and the industrial investment model of "indirect financing led by banks increasing leverage, and direct financing in the capital market pushing up risks" may irreversibly fade out of the market. Returning finance to finance and tourism to tourism will be a new expected change in tourism investment in the coming period.

At present and in the future, party committees and governments at all levels should pay close attention to traditional business models such as travel agencies, OTAs, star rated hotels, homestays, A-level scenic spots, theme parks, and tourist vehicles, especially the living conditions of frontline practitioners such as tour guides, leaders, drivers, and servers. In order to implement the requirements of the central government's "six stabilizations" and "six guarantees", based on policy evaluation, tourism administrative departments at all levels should further enhance the policy targeting and precision of measures to alleviate difficulties, so that traditional enterprises and frontline employees can have a real sense of gain. Macro policies such as finance, employment, elderly care, and healthcare, as well as specific assistance measures in the tourism sector, are only safety valves and protective nets. Ultimately, we must promote the entrepreneurial spirit and advance the high-quality development of the tourism industry through technological and market innovation. Millions of policies, the first one in the market. The urgent task is to continuously release market expectations that encourage travel, leisure, and consumption on the basis of epidemic prevention and control, and create a market environment conducive to medium and long-distance tourism consumption. As long as the potential of tourism consumption is released, factors such as capital, technology, and talent will continuously flood into the tourism market, and enterprises will naturally respond to market profit opportunities. We also need to pay attention to the domestic market transformation of China Travel Service, the local market innovation of Spring and Autumn Tourism, the standardization construction of Guangzhou Travel Service, the industrial investment of Caesar Tourism, the successful launch of high-end vacation products by Kaiyuan Tourism, the counter trend growth of high-end hotels under Fosun, and the steady growth of local leisure and rural tourism, which have brought confidence and momentum to the tourism industry during the epidemic period.

The New Year has arrived, and spring is blowing across the land of our motherland. Looking far into the distance, everything is in a state of recovery. In 2021, we will celebrate the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China, enter a comprehensive well-off society, and embark on a new journey of building a socialist country. The tourism market will begin an irreversible and orderly recovery process. The tourism industry should have better expectations. The pace of recovery in the tourism market will definitely be faster than currently anticipated, and the results we will achieve will definitely be greater than currently anticipated.