"Analysis of China's Tourism Economic Operation in 2024 and Development Forecast in 2025" (China Tourism Economy Blue Book No. 17) was released online

On March 26, our institute hosted the "Annual Landmark Achievements Release Conference of China Tourism Research Institute", and released a total of 8 landmark research results. Among them, "Analysis of China's Tourism Economic Operation in 2024 and Development Forecast in 2025" (China Tourism Economy Blue Book No. 17) is a scientific research result edited by Dean Dai Bin and condensed with the collective wisdom of the whole institute. Zhang Yang, director of the Data Analysis Institute, released it on behalf of the research team.

In 2024, General Secretary Xi Jinping made important instructions on tourism work, and the central government held a national tourism development conference. Affected by favorable policies, supply optimization, and rising willingness to travel, the tourism economy has shifted from a rapid recovery stage to a new cycle of prosperity and development. Major indicators such as total domestic tourism expenditure, total number of trips, average holiday travel distance, and destination stay time have all exceeded or approached the 2019 level. New tourism demands such as summer vacation, study, ice and snow, food, shopping, self-driving, and cruise ships in the "seven festivals and two seasons" such as holidays, summer, and ice and snow seasons have driven tourism investment growth and business innovation. Affected by favorable factors such as visa, consumption and payment convenience, and the global promotion of "Hello! China", the inbound and outbound tourism market has achieved unexpected growth. The overall outlook for the tourism economy in 2025 is more optimistic, and major development indicators will hit a record high. It is necessary to interpret tourism economic data in a comprehensive and developmental manner and release more positive market signals. We must do a good job in promoting the tourism market and providing high-quality supplies during the ice and snow season and the Spring Festival, and strive to achieve a high start and high end for the tourism economy throughout the year. Facing the sinking market and upgrading needs, we will develop inclusive tourism, improve service quality, create new cultural and leisure spaces and new tourism consumption scenes. We will accelerate the construction of scenic spots, resorts, cities, blocks, routes and corporate support for tourism power, promote greater opening up to the outside world, enrich the inbound tourism product system, and ensure the sense of security, gain and happiness of inbound and outbound tourists. We will improve public services, optimize the market environment, and focus on improving the modernization level of the tourism governance system and governance capabilities.

1. In 2024, the tourism economy will enter a new cycle from a new stage of rapid recovery to a new stage of prosperous development

Due to the combined effects of various favorable policies, urban and rural residents are willing to travel, holiday tourists are surging, summer and snow tourism indicators have hit record highs, and inbound and outbound tourism have achieved unexpected growth. Consumption drives tourism investment and entrepreneurship and innovation, and infrastructure, public services and business environment continue to improve. In 2024, the tourism economy will move from a new stage of rapid recovery to a new cycle of prosperity and development. The annual tourism economic prosperity index (CTA-TEP) increased by 2.1% year-on-year, which is in the prosperity range. From the perspective of quarterly indicators, it shows a fluctuating upward trend.

In 2024, the number of domestic tourists in China reached 5.615 billion, an increase of 724 million over the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%. The total expenditure of domestic tourists was 5.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 840 billion yuan over the previous year, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%. The number of inbound tourists reached 131.9 million, an increase of 60.8%, including 26.94 million foreigners and 104.96 million compatriots from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. The total expenditure of inbound tourists reached 94.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 77.8%. The number of foreigners entering China through visa-free entry reached 20.12 million, an increase of 112.3%. The number of mainland residents going abroad reached 145.89 million, including 140.15 million going abroad for private reasons and 97.12 million going to Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.

"Two seasons and seven festivals" demonstrate the vitality of the tourism market. According to comprehensive calculations by the research team, the number of domestic tourists in the summer vacation (June to August) reached 1.949 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%; the total travel expenditure reached 1.31 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and the travel distance, recreation radius and tourist satisfaction all hit historical highs. In the 2023-2024 ice and snow season, the national ice and snow tourism exceeded 400 million for the first time, with revenue reaching 550 billion yuan. Ice and snow tourism and leisure are forming the "Three North Arcs" in Northeast China, North China and Northwest China, and are moving towards a new spatial pattern of "multi-point contiguous" in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, middle reaches of the Yangtze River, Sichuan and Chongqing, and Central Plains urban agglomerations. In 2024, the average daily number of urban and rural residents traveling during the New Year's Day, Spring Festival, Qingming Festival, Labor Day, Dragon Boat Festival, Mid-Autumn Festival, and National Day holidays exceeded that of 2019, and the per capita tourism expenditure on five holidays such as the Spring Festival and National Day exceeded the same period in 2019. The holiday tourism market has seen faster growth in passenger flow, higher consumption, faster flow, and more experiences. Tourism flows are characterized by hot spots becoming hotter and warmer spots becoming hotter. Tourism destinations have formed a new pattern of integration, innovation, openness and sharing. The quality of tourism services has been comprehensively improved. Tourism in China is moving forward with warmth. As a key window period for tourism market heat, reception capacity, and supply innovation, the holiday market has driven the tourism economy to make steady progress and improve, effectively enhancing the travel willingness, consumption expectations, and entrepreneurial confidence of urban and rural residents.

Visa, consumption and payment convenience have driven the inbound and outbound tourism market to grow beyond expectations. In the past year, the special mechanism led by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism coordinated and promoted 17 ministries and commissions to introduce a series of convenient measures for foreigners to travel to China, and continuously optimized various channels for foreigners to come to China. With the continuous release of policy dividends from the diplomatic, immigration, public security, ports, finance and other departments, the cultural and tourism system has stepped up the promotion of "Hello! China" worldwide, and the number of inbound tourists has achieved an unexpected growth. In the outbound market, Hong Kong and Macao maintain their basic market position, and the market structure dominated by short-distance travel in Southeast Asia and East Asia has not changed. The destinations of countries along the "Belt and Road", especially in West Asia and North Africa, have grown significantly.

New quality productivity helps tourism investment and market players innovate. Since the reform and opening up, the marketization of the tourism industry has continued to deepen, and the level of specialization has been continuously improved. It has formed a backbone enterprise represented by the top 20 tourism groups such as China Travel, OCT, BTG, Jinjiang, Lingnan, Zhejiang Tourism Investment, Shandong Culture and Tourism, Shaanxi Tourism, Sichuan Tourism, Ctrip, Kaiyuan, Spring Airlines, Xiangyuan, Sunac, and Fosun, leading the investment in major projects and the improvement of the quality and efficiency of the destination reception system. In 2024, the top 20 tourism groups had a total operating income of 573.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%; the average operating income was 28.655 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. In the past year, a group of pioneering enterprises driven by technology and innovation, with leadership, growth and value have rapidly emerged. Such as the world craftsmanship of Jingdezhen Tao Culture and Tourism, the literary life of Aranya Holdings, the life aesthetics of Chengdu Culture and Tourism, the traditional hospitality of Atour Hotel, the child-friendly design of Shenzhen Aoya, the ice and snow tourism of Madiel Culture and Tourism, the village aesthetics of Hangzhou Xiangwai Culture and Tourism, the urban renewal of Hefei Binhu Investment and Control, and the eco-tourism of Yunnan Kangteng, etc. These municipal and district state-owned enterprises or innovative private enterprises have seized the opportunity of the era when the tourism economy has moved from rapid recovery to prosperous development, introduced new quality productivity increments such as culture, art, and technology to activate social stock resources, and cultivated many small but exquisite, small but beautiful, and small but warm new cultural spaces and new tourism scenes.

The steadily increasing tourist satisfaction carries the people's sense of gain in tourism. In 2024, the national tourist satisfaction index was 80.91, an increase of 1.1% year-on-year, which was at a "satisfactory level". The growth of residents' travel demand and rational consumption concepts have accelerated the supply-side product development, scene innovation and business format upgrades. The frequency of new cultural leisure and tourism scenes in tourist destinations has accelerated, pushing tourist satisfaction to steadily return to an upward cycle. The modernization level of the governance system and governance capabilities in the tourism field continues to improve, driving the tourist satisfaction in the complaint quality supervision dimension to increase by 8.3% year-on-year, achieving a historical high of 78.05 points.

In 2024, the satisfaction of tourists in the inbound tourism market was 81.85, an increase of 4.8% over 2023. Among them, the satisfaction of inbound tourists from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan was 80.36, and the satisfaction of foreign inbound tourists was 82.06. The inbound tourism experience of foreign tourists has improved significantly, an increase of 8.1% over the same period last year. The satisfaction of tourists in the outbound tourism market was 80.06 throughout the year, a decrease of 2.8% over 2023. The main reasons include the rapid expansion of the outbound tourism market, the continuous improvement of domestic residents' demand standards for quality, experience, cost-effectiveness, etc., the deviation between demand upgrades and the adaptation of overseas destination resource supply, and the excessive prices of accommodation and transportation.

2. Tourism economy in 2025: more optimistic expectations and higher quality growth 2025 is the year of the conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the planning of the 15th Five-Year Plan. It is also a key year for the intensive introduction of macro-favorable policies to consolidate the tourism economy into a new cycle of prosperity and development. Based on the leading indicators such as urban and rural residents' willingness to travel, the degree of recovery of the tourism supply chain, tourism investment innovation, tourist bookings and travel agent purchasing index, and trend indicators such as the tourism market, macroeconomics and social development policies, after comprehensive research and judgment by the research team, we maintain a more optimistic expectation for the tourism economy in 2025. The number of domestic tourists, total tourism expenditure, holiday travel distance, destination stay time, new employment, new fixed asset investment, tourist attractions, resorts, travel agencies, star-rated hotels and homestays, and other tourism market operators, as well as the number of inbound and outbound tourists and tourism foreign exchange income are expected to hit a record high.

In 2025, tourism work will focus on "expanding domestic demand, boosting consumption, deepening integration, and high quality". We must ensure the high-quality supply of tourism during the ice and snow season, summer vacation, and holidays, and consolidate the market foundation for the tourism economy to "start high and go high". We will promote inclusive tourism, develop quality tourism, and take multiple measures to protect the tourism rights and interests of urban and rural residents. We will improve the support system for destination cities and villages, tourism project investment, and service brands of a tourism power. We will further expand opening up to the outside world and the inside, and improve the level of convenience for inbound tourism and consumption. We will improve the tourism legal system and modernize the governance system and governance capabilities in the tourism field.

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