2010 Tourism Economic Operation Analysis and 2011 Development Forecast and the Release of the "China Tourism Economy Blue Book (No. 3)"

China Tourism Academy: my country's tourism industry achieves comprehensive growth

On the afternoon of January 10, 2011, the "2010 Tourism Economy Operation Analysis and 2011 Development Forecast, as well as the Results Release Conference of the" China Tourism Economy Blue Book (No.3) ", hosted by the China Tourism Research Institute and co organized by the Tourism Channel of People's Daily Online, was held in the studio of People's Daily Online. The China Tourism Research Institute has released relevant research results on the overall situation and development characteristics of China's tourism economy in 2010, as well as the development forecast and policy recommendations for 2011. The latest research results from the China Tourism Research Institute indicate that although the impact of the international financial crisis is still ongoing and has been disrupted by natural disasters and other factors, China's tourism economy showed a good and fast growth trend in 2010: the three major markets grew comprehensively, and the position of the domestic market as the main body was further highlighted; The scale of tourism investment has expanded, and the development of the industry has shown many highlights, with obvious functions of expanding consumption and improving people's livelihoods. It is expected that the total revenue of the tourism industry for the whole year will be 1.44 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%. Domestic tourism maintains stable and rapid growth. It is expected that the number of domestic tourists for the whole year will be 2.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and the domestic tourism revenue will be 116 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%. Inbound tourism has achieved recovery and growth. It is expected that there will be 132 million inbound tourists for the whole year, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and tourism foreign exchange income of 46 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 15%. The growth rate of outbound tourism continues to accelerate. It is expected that the number of outbound tourists for the whole year will be 54 million, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and the expenditure on outbound tourism will be 48 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 14%. Overall, China's tourism economy is currently in a strategic opportunity period of accelerated development. With further improvement in the macro environment, the China Tourism Research Institute holds a relatively optimistic expectation for achieving stable and healthy growth in the tourism economy in 2011.

Tourism market pattern remains stable with some changes

The growth rate of the domestic tourism market is higher in urban areas than in rural areas. Although the number of rural tourists has always been higher than that of urban tourists since 2000, it is worth noting that after 2008, the number of urban tourists has increased more than that of rural tourists, and the market share of the two has become close again. Preliminary analysis shows that this change is related to the rapid urbanization process in recent years. From the perspective of tourism expenditure, the total expenditure of urban tourism is higher than that of rural tourism, and the gap is widening. Urban tourists, with a market share of less than 50%, have created tourism expenditures that account for more than 70% of the market share. The inbound tourism market has become differentiated, and the foreigner market has performed outstandingly. In the past 10 years, the growth of the foreigner market has generally been higher than the growth of inbound tourists, and it grew at a higher speed in 2010. Although this is related to the sharp decline of the foreigner market in 2009 and the holding of the Shanghai World Expo in 2010, it also shows that the foreigner market is an important growth point. The Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan markets have generally shown stable growth, but there are also large differences among them. Relatively speaking, Hong Kong has the largest market share and is developing relatively steadily; Taiwan has the greatest market potential and grew fastest in 2010; Macao has limited room for growth. In terms of outbound tourism, the pattern of outbound travel dominated by private travel has been further strengthened. In 2010, under the background of factors such as the increase in Chinese residents' consumption capacity, the appreciation of the RMB and the tightening of management of public spending, the outbound tourism market in my country has formed a pattern of outbound travel dominated by private travel, which has been further strengthened. At present, the number of outbound tourists for official business only accounts for about 10% of the total number of outbound tourists. From the perspective of outbound destinations, although short-distance travel destinations are still the first choice, medium and long-distance destinations are growing faster.

Five highlights of industrial development

The overall performance of the industry is improving. In 2010, the overall business situation of tourism enterprises was good, with the prosperity index steadily increasing quarter by quarter, and the development of various sub industries also showing a good trend. From the perspective of the prosperity index of various sub indicators of tourism enterprise operation, the operating conditions of tourism enterprises are gradually improving, but the operating costs are constantly rising due to the increase in tourism factor prices, the price level of tourism products is also gradually increasing, tourism employment is steadily increasing, employee salary levels have improved, and tourism investment is relatively active. From the perspective of different industries, scenic spots have the highest prosperity, followed by comprehensive tourism groups, while travel agencies and hotels have relatively lower prosperity. Looking at the three regions of East, West, Central, and Western China, the prosperity of the eastern region has continued to significantly improve, while the prosperity of the central and western regions has steadily increased. The operating conditions of tourism enterprises in the eastern region are still in a leading position. Deepening of industrial integration and development. The tourism industry is accelerating its integration with other industries, becoming a new field for capital, technology, and talent competition. The rapid development of urban complexes, following Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou and other places, Wuhan, Chongqing, Changsha and other places have also introduced preferential policies to vigorously support the development and construction of urban complexes, and the construction of urban complexes is in full swing. Large e-commerce companies have made high-profile investments in the tourism industry, such as the listing of Taobao travel platform, Tencent launching QQ travel channel, and Shanda Network innovatively entering the tourism business. The integration of culture and tourism has taken new steps. The first China International Cultural Tourism Festival, jointly hosted by the Ministry of Culture, the National Tourism Administration, and the People's Government of Hunan Province, was held in Zhangjiajie City, Hunan Province from October 23 to November 13. The conference released the "National Cultural Tourism Key Projects - Tourism Performance Category" directory, the national cultural tourism experimental zone directory, and the "Zhangjiajie Declaration on the Common Development of Chinese Cultural Tourism". The marketization process of the industry is accelerating. The degree of industrial openness has further expanded, and a pilot program has been launched within the year to open up the outbound tourism market to foreign travel agencies, while also piloting peer agency in the domestic travel agency industry. There has been new progress in cultivating market entities, especially in the separation and restructuring of hotel assets between central and local state-owned enterprises, injecting development vitality into the optimization of China's hotel industry structure and institutional innovation. The market coverage has expanded, and in terms of grade, after the boom of high-end and economy hotels, mid-range hotels have emerged; From a regional perspective, after saturation in first tier cities, high-end hotel brands are penetrating into second - and third tier cities. Tourism enterprises have taken new steps towards becoming bigger and stronger. After 25 years of development, the total assets of OCT have exceeded 60 billion yuan, and 13 OCT and nine major theme parks have been built nationwide, receiving over 160 million tourists and ranking among the top eight world tourism groups. Modern business models and technological means are widely used. The capitalization operation of the tourism industry is active, such as Jinjiang International launching a comprehensive listing, multiple tourism companies planning to go public, and Fosun International acquiring 7.1% equity of Mediterranean Club. The process of tourism enterprise group transformation is accelerating, such as the establishment of Sichuan Tourism Industry Group in early September, and the construction of Guangxi Hotel Investment Management Company to integrate and operate 38 state-owned hotels and hotel assets. The acceleration of information technology construction and the introduction of policies encouraging travel agencies to develop e-commerce in some provinces and cities have effectively promoted the informationization level of the travel agency industry. The informatization construction of the scenic spot has also reached a new level. For example, the virtual technology was used at the Shanghai World Expo, the 158 year old World Expo was first moved to the Internet in the form of a three-dimensional garden, and the Jiuzhaigou Valley Scenic and Historic Interest Area scenic spot has made every effort to promote the construction of "smart Jiuzhaigou". The application of new technology has become more widespread and mature. There have been new developments in product transformation and upgrading. The upgrading and replacement of scenic spots are accelerating, such as the "Three Gorges Family" which integrates natural landscapes, film and television technology, and regional culture. It is the first large-scale folk tourism area with original ecology, scene style, and experiential features, and ranked first in the "Three Gorges Beautiful Scenic Area" selection activity. The cruise and yacht industry has become a highlight, such as the China International Yacht and Sailing Exhibition held in Xiamen, Sanya launching the first yacht industry and dock layout planning work, and Chongqing building a yacht base in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of the Yangtze River. New products are constantly being launched, such as bus tourism launched by China Youth Travel Service, as well as organic farms and "foreign family music" in the development of rural tourism.

Click for Regional Tourism Development

The travel capacity of the central and western regions has been significantly improved. In 2010, the overall pattern of regional tourism development showed a trend of "overall growth, outstanding highlights, overall stability and local changes". Whether it is domestic tourism or inbound and outbound tourism, the eastern region is still in a leading position. However, it is worth noting that the travel capacity of the central and western regions has been significantly improved. For example, the survey results of Ctrip.com show that during the Spring Festival and the National Day holiday in 2010, the travel popularity of cities in the central and western regions such as Chengdu, Xi'an, Wuhan and Chongqing ranked in the top 10. High-speed transportation reconstructs the development pattern of regional tourism. my country's high-speed transportation system has accelerated its construction, especially in the field of high-speed railways. The accessibility of tourism in various parts of the country has been significantly improved, which has effectively driven the growth of tourism along the line. The development of regional tourism in my country has shown a new pattern. According to the statistics of Guangzhi Travel, since the opening of the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway, the number of tourists from Guangzhou to the "two lakes" has increased sharply, and the total number of "high-speed rail tours" throughout the year has exceeded 50,000, including more than 30,000 in the Hunan section and nearly 20,000 in the Hubei section. Hot events and national strategies have become important factors affecting the development of regional tourism. The Shanghai World Expo and the Guangzhou Asian Games have brought considerable tourism revenue to the local area. The construction of Hainan International Tourism Island, counterpart assistance to Xinjiang, and the construction of the Beijing-Tianjin leisure and vacation industry belt in Hebei Province have also effectively promoted the development of the local tourism industry. Institutional innovation has set off a boom in the development of regional tourism economy. In order to implement the "Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Development of Tourism", various regions have successively issued corresponding implementation measures or similar documents, providing many preferential policies to accelerate the development of tourism, and a new round of boom in regional tourism economic development has been set off.

Five major issues need attention

First, the policy effects have not yet fully emerged. Although there is an upsurge in tourism development in various places, society's understanding of tourism is still insufficient. The problem of how to build "a strategic pillar industry of the national economy and a modern service industry that is more satisfactory to the people" has not been effectively solved, and some problems have arisen. It has solved new problems such as overheating of tourism investment, false investment, and blind comparison with internationalization. Second, the development of market entities lags behind. On the one hand, there is a lack of leading enterprises, especially large enterprise groups with international competitiveness. On the other hand, small and medium-sized enterprises are seriously lacking in vitality and innovation. There is no substantial breakthrough for tourism companies going global, and there is still a big gap between the requirements of marketization, industrialization, modernization and internationalization. Third, the industrial structure needs to be optimized. The tourism industry chain is still relatively short, and the ticket economy still accounts for a large proportion of the tourism development in some places. The integration of the tourism industry needs to be further deepened, especially the initiative for integrated development must be strengthened. There is a significant imbalance in the level of tourism development between regions. Fourth, the individual passenger service system still lags behind. The industrial system traditionally built around group tourism has been unable to adapt to the needs of the individual travel era. The results of the tourist satisfaction survey show that the satisfaction of domestic group tourists is always higher than that of domestic individual tourists, indicating that there are still serious deficiencies in my country's individual tourist service system. Fifth, tourism safety issues need to be paid more attention to. Frequent natural disasters and safety incidents have sounded the alarm for tourism safety.

2011: Tourism economy is relatively optimistic

Based on the strategic opportunity period of accelerating development of my country's tourism economy and the further improvement of the macro environment, the China Tourism Academy is relatively optimistic about the steady and healthy growth of the tourism economy in 2011. It is expected that the tourism industry will continue to achieve steady and healthy growth in 2011, and the market scale will further expand. The total tourism revenue for the whole year is expected to be 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 11% year-on-year. The number of domestic tourists is 2.34 billion, an increase of 10% year-on-year; domestic tourism revenue is 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 12% year-on-year. The number of inbound tourists is 135 million, an increase of 2% year-on-year; foreign exchange income from inbound tourism is 50 billion US dollars, an increase of 8% year-on-year. The number of outbound tourists is 57 million, an increase of 5% year-on-year; outbound tourism expenditure is 55 billion US dollars, an increase of 14% year-on-year. The hot spots worth paying attention to in 2011 include: the release and implementation of the "12th Five-Year Plan for the Development of China's Tourism Industry", the legislative process of the "Tourism Law", the compilation and implementation of the "National Tourism and Leisure Outline" and the establishment of China Tourism Day, the "Chinese Cultural Tour" theme year series of activities, the 100th anniversary of the Xinhai Revolution, and the 2011 Xi'an World Horticultural Exposition.

In 2011, my country's tourism industry needs to do well in six areas

2011 is the first year of the 12th Five-Year Plan. The tourism industry should closely focus on the theme of scientific development and the main line of changing the development mode, aim at the two strategic goals of "strategic pillar industries of the national economy and modern service industries that are more satisfactory to the people", continuously expand the scale of the industry, continuously improve the quality of the industry, and lay a good foundation for the smooth implementation of the 12th Five-Year Plan for Tourism Development. First, we should do a good job in several key tasks. Implement the "12th Five-Year Plan for the Development of China's Tourism Industry", promote the legislation of the "Tourism Law" as planned, promote the compilation of the "National Tourism and Leisure Outline", and do a good job in the "Chinese Cultural Tour" theme year series of activities. Attach great importance to red tourism and rural tourism. Attach great importance to the recovery and growth of the inbound tourism market, especially the inbound market for foreigners. It is recommended to formulate a clear overseas source market strategy, divide the world into priority markets, strategic markets, emerging markets and potential markets, and while giving full play to the role of 19 overseas offices, further introduce market mechanisms and do a good job in overseas marketing. Second, promote industrial integration. In particular, we should strengthen the active integration ability of the tourism industry. Third, speed up the modernization of the tourism industry. We should strive to explore the theoretical support system of the new model of tourism development under the new stage and new tasks, start to construct the internal improvement mechanism of tourism development quality improvement, establish and improve the tourism industry operation evaluation system and monitoring system oriented to improving development quality, strengthen the tourism market supervision and credit system construction centered on tourist satisfaction, actively guide the capital market to intervene in the tourism industry, do a good job in cultivating market entities such as private enterprises and new formats, and promote the innovation of modern science and technology and business models centered on informatization. Fourth, accelerate the improvement of tourism public services. In particular, we should strengthen the construction of public service systems for individual tourists. Fifth, plan a new layout for regional tourism development. We should firmly grasp the opportunities of the release and implementation of a series of regional development strategies and the construction of high-speed transportation systems in my country, promote the innovation of the system and mechanism of regional tourism development, promote regional tourism cooperation, and optimize the layout of regional tourism development. Sixth, promote international and regional tourism exchanges and cooperation.

"Analysis of China's Tourism Economy in 2010 and Forecast of Development in 2011" will be published soon

According to reports, the book "Analysis of China's Tourism Economic Operation in 2010 and Forecast of Development in 2011" will be published soon. This book is the third part of the "China Tourism Economic Blue Book", a major research result released annually by the China Academy of Sciences. Based on a comprehensive analysis and review of the operation pattern of my country's tourism economy last year, it analyzes and predicts the development goals, important indicators and possible innovation directions for 2011, and also puts forward a number of policy designs and work suggestions.