Research results of the tourism economic operation report in the first quarter of 2013

Total tourism revenue increased by 15% in the first quarter

On April 9, 2013, the China Tourism Research Institute released the first quarter tourism economy operation report in Beijing, stating that the current tourism economy operation fundamentals are generally stable, with relatively high development performance, public market confidence, and entrepreneurial prospects. However, it also faces pressure from the low prosperity level of inbound tourism, accommodation, catering, especially high-end hotel catering industry, as well as possible market risks such as public health events. In the first half of the year, macro tourism policies should be guided by conveying market confidence to domestic and foreign markets. 1、 Analysis of Tourism Economy Operation in the First Quarter of 2013: Overall, the tourism economy faced structural downward pressure in the first quarter of 2013. The main reason is that there is still significant downward pressure on the inbound market this quarter, and the prosperity of high star hotels and the catering industry has declined. （1） Development environment: Stable operation, favorable factors for economic and social development, continuous strengthening of public services for people's livelihood, rapid growth in per capita income of urban and rural residents and international tourism market. Since the new year, China's tourism industry has undergone a series of new changes. The tourism economy has become a hot topic of concern for the whole society and both domestically and internationally, as well as a highlight of the Chinese economy. For example, the National Tourism and Leisure Outline has been issued, the National Development and Reform Commission has lowered the transaction fees for tourism related consumer bank cards, the North South high-speed railway network with the Beijing Guangzhou line and Harbin Dalian line as the backbone has been successively opened, and tourism has become the first source of customers in the civil aviation market. However, the overall macroeconomic situation is still relatively cold, and specific policy measures to expand domestic demand have not yet been introduced and implemented. The growth rate of national passenger traffic has declined significantly, and environmental problems such as haze have affected tourism activities. The world economy is still running at a low level in the first quarter, and it is expected that the number of world tourists will increase by 3.5%. Since the beginning of this year, the recognition of China's international tourism image as "Beautiful China Tour" will be beneficial for the recovery of the inbound tourism market. （2） Market fundamentals: Overall positive, the inbound market maintains a flat downward trend. Due to the low operation of the inbound market, the market sentiment index is still at a "sluggish" level, but the national tourism market still maintains rapid growth. It is expected that the total number of visitors received in the first quarter of 2013 will exceed 1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, and the total tourism revenue will reach 830 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%. Domestic tourism is steadily growing. During the Spring Festival, a total of 203 million tourists were received nationwide, an increase of 15.1% compared to the previous year's Spring Festival Golden Week; Realize tourism revenue of 117.06 billion yuan, an increase of 15.4%. It is expected that the number of domestic tourists in the first quarter of 2012 will be 970 million, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, and the domestic tourism revenue will be 760 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%. The inbound tourism market resumed growth in January, with a 1.79% increase in tourist numbers. Tourism revenue increased by 9.3%. However, due to the influence of environmental climate and seasonal characteristics in February and March, and taking into account the market situation of inbound tourism in Beijing, Zhejiang, Fujian, Hubei and other places from January to February, it is expected that the inbound tourism operation in the first quarter will still face a basic trend of flat downward trend. The number of inbound tourists in the first quarter of 2013 was 31.66 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%; The foreign exchange revenue from inbound tourism was 11.3 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 3%. Outbound tourism is growing rapidly. It is expected that the number of outbound tourists in the first quarter of 2013 will be 23.01 million, a year-on-year increase of 18%, with outbound tourism spending exceeding 26 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 30%, and a tourism service trade deficit of about 15 billion US dollars. The continuous appreciation of the renminbi, the rising consumer price index, and the need for improvement in commercial reception and public services have had an impact on China's tourism competitiveness. The quantitative easing monetary policies of Japan and South Korea have also had a significant impact on China's international tourism market and directly pushed up the trade deficit in tourism services. （3） Industry fundamentals: At a slightly prosperous level, the prosperity level of the hotel industry, especially the high star hotel industry, has declined. However, the overall development of the accommodation industry is fast, with a high level of innovation vitality. The tourism industry prosperity index for this quarter is 104.62, at a slightly prosperous level, which has declined compared to all quarters in the past three years. The main reason is that the market indicators and employee indicators of the enterprise, as well as the prosperity level of the hotel enterprise, have all declined to varying degrees. According to the statistics released in the first quarter, the proportion of group visitors received by travel agencies decreased from 4.7% in 2011 to 3.1% in 2012. The prosperity index of travel agencies, hotels, scenic spots, and comprehensive enterprises in this quarter were 120.55, 106.29, 121.98, and 128.40 respectively, with hotels having the lowest prosperity level and comprehensive enterprises having the highest prosperity level. The prosperity level of various business indicators of tourism enterprises in the first quarter of 2013 was 116.71 reception numbers, 109.22 ticket prices, 110.38 operating income, 121.46 operating costs, 106.63 profits and taxes, 111.02 employees, and 120.96 employee salaries. This quarter, industrial innovation activities represented by Wanda Group positioning the tourism sector as the main business, Pudding Hotel expanding financing, and regional expansion continue to promote the development of the tourism industry. （4） Regional tourism: The development and innovation of regional tourism with cities as the main body are more prominent. In the first quarter of 2013, the tourism prosperity in the eastern, central, and western regions was 117.29, 111.41, and 115.64, respectively. The level of prosperity and basic pattern remained stable, and the development of regional tourism became more coordinated. Based on the development trend of regional tourism in this quarter, the development and innovation of regional tourism with cities as the main body are more prominent. The integrated development and comprehensive reform of culture and tourism in Chengdu, Kunming, Mount Huangshan and other cities, the construction of a strong tourism city in Tianjin, the innovation and development experiment of the national tourism industry in Danyang, Jiangsu, the cultural tourism and self driving tourism in Gansu, the construction of international tourism destinations in Zhongwei, Ningxia, and the tourism innovation of marine tourism and ecological tourism in Hainan, tourism and marine economy in Shandong, tourism and leisure resorts (belts) in Jiangxi, Shanxi, and Shaanxi injected vitality into the development of regional tourism in China in the first quarter. 2、 The trend forecast for the first half of 2013 shows that the current leading index of China's tourism economy is 96.74, which is at a weak recession level, comparable to the level of the previous quarter and the same period last year, indicating that the tourism economy will maintain a stable operation trend in the first half of the year. Among them, indicators such as domestic development environment, entrepreneurial confidence, and tourism willingness are relatively good. （1） Development environment: The increase of favorable macro environmental factors, the change of government and institutional reform in China, as well as the government's setting of this year's GDP growth rate of 7.5% and the introduction of a package of economic growth indicators, are conducive to the development of tourism economy and macroeconomic regulation of tourism. Deepening income distribution reform, highlighting public services for people's livelihoods, the introduction of the 12th Five Year Plan for the marine economy, strengthening ecological construction, railway market reform, and new urbanization construction are all favorable factors for the development of the tourism industry. The implementation of follow-up measures for the National Tourism and Leisure Outline in the first half of the year, the promulgation of the Tourism Law, and the response and implementation of proposals and suggestions for holiday arrangements called for by many representatives during the Two Sessions are also important foundations for the development of domestic tourism. Internationally, in the first half of the year, China will focus on strengthening and improving diplomatic relations, showing signs of stabilizing the situation in Northeast Asia, and accelerating further internationalization and integration into globalization represented by the opening of direct flights between Beijing and Geneva. All of these are conducive to the recovery and development of China's inbound tourism. （2） Economic foundation: Market confidence and outlook expectations have increased, people's tourism demand has become more normalized, and entrepreneurs' innovation has become more active. Currently, consumer confidence in China continues to rise, reaching a good level of 103.9. The willingness of Chinese residents to travel is 85.23%, ranking among the top dreams in the CCTV "Chinese Dream" survey. The proportion of tourism expenses among urban women has reached 13.3%, second only to 23.3% for clothing and apparel, and the budget for outbound tourism exceeds 10000 yuan. According to the survey of China Tourism Research Institute, the current tourism booking boom index is 108.79, the boom level of enterprise fixed assets investment is 119.23, and the investment growth rate of catering and accommodation industry is 30.2%. From the data over the years, tourism and leisure tourism in the second and third quarters will enter the peak period of the year, which is conducive to the operation of various tourism enterprises. （3） The first problem is that there are some unfavorable factors in the development environment that lead to fluctuations in the country's tourism competitiveness. On March 12th, the World Economic Forum released the "Tourism Competition Report 2013", which showed that China ranked 45th out of 140 participating countries and regions, a decrease of 6 places from 2011. The main factors causing a decline in competitiveness are macro environmental constraints, such as high consumer prices, improved commercial reception capabilities, and professionalization of public services. Secondly, the hotspots and targeted expansion of tourism consumption are relatively insufficient, lacking effective industrial growth points and policies to stimulate demand, resulting in relatively slow growth in national passenger transport volume. Thirdly, the public policies and macro guidance for new business models need to be improved. Potential market entities in various tourism industries, local tourism development and innovation, and the improvement of leisure and vacation product systems all urgently require timely and professional policy guidance from tourism regulatory authorities. （4） Based on the above judgments, the research institute holds a relatively optimistic attitude towards the operation of China's tourism economy in the first half of 2013 and expects it to show an upward trend. The total number of tourists received was 1.766 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%, accounting for 52.97% of the annual proportion. The total revenue of tourism reception was 1.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, achieving a proportion of 50.88% for the whole year. The number of domestic tourists reached 1.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and the proportion for the whole year was 53.13%; Domestic tourism revenue reached 1.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, achieving a full year proportion of 52.21%. The number of inbound tourists reached 66 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, and the proportion for the whole year was 49.25%; The foreign exchange income from inbound tourism was 24.4 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and the proportion for the whole year was 44.8%. The number of outbound tourists was 45.14 million, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and the proportion for the whole year was 49.07%; Outbound tourism expenses amounted to 50.7 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 11%.