Analysis of tourism economic operation in the first three quarters of 2013 and forecast of annual trend

On October 14th, the China Tourism Research Institute released an analysis of the tourism economy operation in the first three quarters of 2013 and a forecast of the annual trend, stating that the overall tourism economy operation in China remained stable with an upward trend in the first three quarters of 2013. The current domestic and international tourism development environment is improving, the national tourism market is growing rapidly, the industry is recovering comprehensively, regional tourism is relatively active, and the tourism economy is at a key point of short-term correction. Structural imbalance remains the main challenge in the recovery channel. Looking ahead to the whole year, the operating trend of the tourism economy is relatively optimistic and will continue to steadily recover. The overall development goal for the year will be achieved, but inbound tourism will slightly decline. 1、 Analysis of the operation of tourism economy in the first three quarters of 2013. Currently, China's macro economy has stabilized and rebounded, and policies to expand domestic demand have gradually taken effect. Summer tourism has flourished and developed, and market entities and regional tourism innovation are active. Driven by these factors, the overall operation of the tourism economy improved in the first three quarters, and the tourism market grew rapidly. After two quarters of decline, the tourism industry rebounded comprehensively, and regional tourism was relatively active. The overall economic operating environment is improving: the tourism development environment prosperity index for the first three quarters was 91.02, 99.69, and 100.42, indicating a sustained rebound in prosperity. The overall operation of the domestic economy is stable with progress, and reform and development policies are constantly improving. The country has clarified the "upper limit" and "lower limit" of the reasonable range of economic operation, introduced measures to stabilize growth, and prevented excessive fluctuations. With stable market and social expectations, the national economy is showing an accelerated recovery trend, and the GDP in the first three quarters is expected to exceed the annual target of 7.5%. Resident income has steadily increased. In the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 13649 yuan, an actual increase of 6.5%, and the per capita cash income of rural residents was 4817 yuan, an actual increase of 9.2%. The total retail sales of social goods from January to July increased by 13.2% year-on-year, which is basically the same as last year. The decision of the State Council on financial support for economic structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading, reform of railway investment and financing system, cancellation and delegation of administrative approval projects, and measures to promote the development of health industry, elderly care industry, resource depleted cities, etc. all include the tourism industry. The overall international development environment is good. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index remained above the prosperity line from January to July, and the US economy showed a moderate growth trend in the first half of the year, with overall stabilization and improvement. In the first half of 2013, the number of overseas tourists from countries around the world reached 494 million, an increase of 5.2% compared to the same period last year and higher than the 3% -4% forecast made by the World Tourism Organization at the beginning of the year. The inbound tourism in Asia is experiencing a strong recovery, with a growth rate of over 13% in the number of Southeast Asian arrivals. There are also some unfavorable external factors in the current operation of the tourism economy. In southern China, 29 days of major meteorological disaster level high temperature weather has occurred in a large range. Flooding disasters caused by north-south rainstorm have affected vast areas in southern China, northeast China and northwest China. Earthquake disasters have successively occurred in Ya'an, Sichuan, Dingxi, Gansu, Diqing, Yunnan and other places. Safety production and social security incidents have occurred from time to time. The international security issues are also not optimistic, and the US government has issued several global travel warnings. Market fundamentals: Overall, it maintains rapid growth, with the three major markets of domestic, outbound, and inbound continuing to follow a pattern of "two increases and one decrease". It is expected that the total number of tourists received in the first three quarters will be 2.56 billion, with a total tourism revenue of 214 trillion yuan, an increase of 10% and 12% year-on-year, respectively. The three major markets have shown a pattern of "two rises and one fall" respectively, with the domestic tourism market and outbound tourism maintaining a high-speed growth trend, while inbound tourism has further declined. The domestic tourism market has maintained a high growth rate, and urban residents are still the main body of domestic travel. It is expected that the number of domestic tourists in the first three quarters will be 2.48 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, and the domestic tourism revenue will be 1.92 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, achieving 77.6% and 77.1% of the annual targets, respectively. The number of inbound tourists and foreign exchange earnings from tourism have decreased. It is expected that the number of inbound tourists in the first three quarters will be 96.2 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3%; Tourism foreign exchange revenue was 35.6 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 5%. The outbound tourism market continues to grow rapidly. It is expected that the number of outbound tourists in the first three quarters will be 72.55 million, a year-on-year increase of 18%; Outbound tourism expenses amounted to 94.6 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, with a trade deficit of 59.5 billion US dollars. Industrial fundamentals: Economic fluctuations have rebounded, and there are structural pressures. In the first three quarters of 2013, the tourism industry experienced fluctuations and rebounded, with indices of 115.85, 110.16, and 128.74, all at a "relatively prosperous" level. The tourism industry's prosperity level in the third quarter has rebounded for the first time since the fourth quarter of last year. The business situation of tourism enterprises has improved compared to the second quarter, and the prosperity index of performance indicators such as tourism booking, tourism reception, and operating income in this quarter has all rebounded to above the critical value of 100. From the perspective of different industries, the prosperity index of hotels, travel agencies, scenic spots, and tourism enterprises has all rebounded to varying degrees compared to the previous quarter. The hotel industry's prosperity level stabilized at a "slightly prosperous" level of 106 in the first two quarters and then rebounded to a "relatively prosperous" level of 135.47, close to the level of the fourth quarter of last year. Similarly, the travel agency industry has rebounded rapidly, with its business level rising from a "slightly prosperous" of 109.85 in the second quarter to a "relatively prosperous" of 123.14. The prosperity level of comprehensive tourism enterprises has also risen from a "slightly prosperous" level of 105.60 in the second quarter to a "relatively prosperous" level of 123.60. The prosperity level of scenic spots has remained stable at a "relatively prosperous" level of 120 since the first quarter, and has slightly increased to 128.33 this quarter. Although the overall prosperity level of tourism enterprises has rebounded, structural pressure still exists. From January to July, the revenue of the catering industry in China increased by 8.8%, significantly lower than the 14.7% growth rate of the same period last year. The growth rate of total transportation passenger volume has declined from 8.2% in the same period last year to 5.8%, with rapid growth in railway and civil aviation passenger volume, and a significant decline in the growth rate of highway and waterway passenger volume. In the first half of this year, the number of domestic tourists organized by travel agencies nationwide decreased by 18%. The occupancy rate and operating revenue of star rated hotels across the country have declined to varying degrees, with a significant decrease in the first quarter and a slight rebound in the second quarter. The high-end market such as five-star hotels has experienced a significant decline, and various business indicators continued to decline in the second quarter. However, tourism enterprises targeting individual travelers and the mass market still maintain rapid development, with the economy hotel market represented by two stars showing a significant month on month rebound. Ctrip's net operating income increased by 27% and 28% year-on-year in the first and second quarters, respectively. Regional tourism: Overall stability in the eastern region, with fluctuations rebounding in the western region. Affected by seasonal factors such as climate and summer vacation, the economy in the western region has rapidly rebounded, rising from a "slightly prosperous" level of 109.55 in the second quarter to a "relatively prosperous" level of 130.46. The eastern region is a traditional destination and source of customers, as well as an area with a high rate of residents traveling. After a brief decline in the second quarter, the prosperity level in the eastern region rose again to a "relative prosperity" level of 129.25 in the third quarter. The fluctuation trend of the prosperity level in the central region is similar to that in the eastern region, and it has also rebounded to the "relative prosperity" level of 125.23 this quarter. Regional tourism innovation and cooperation continue to be carried out. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu have implemented a 72 hour visa free transit policy. Beijing is accelerating the development of tourism and improving the functions of the capital city, promoting projects such as the green belt around the city, water scenery around the city, and national highway landscaping. Shandong is accelerating the construction of a strong tourism province, while Hainan's medical tourism and low altitude tourism industries have achieved national policy breakthroughs. Regional cooperation has become more extensive in the first three quarters. In September, the "Pan Pearl River Delta" cooperation will be launched, expanding the cooperation in the Pearl River Delta region from Fujian to Hainan, Guizhou and other places, covering the eastern, central and western regions of South China. Sichuan, Qinghai, and Gansu provinces have signed the "Three Provinces, Seven Cities, and Prefectural Regional Tourism Cooperation Agreement". The construction of Guoluo Airport in Qinghai Province has been approved by the State Council, and a tourism cooperation alliance has been established in cities along the Hunan Guangxi high-speed railway. 2、 The trend forecast for the whole year of 2013 shows that the current domestic and international policy and economic environment has improved, and the confidence in the tourism market is relatively high. The leading index of tourism economy operation is 94.64, which has significantly rebounded from 91.13 in the previous quarter. The trend of sustained and stable recovery of tourism economy operation throughout the year is obvious, and the overall trend is relatively optimistic. Development environment: Continuous improvement, with obvious positive factors. Recently, China's manufacturing activities, industrial output value, and trade indicators have generally rebounded, and market confidence is increasing. The State Council report points out that the main expected goals for economic and social development this year can be achieved. On this basis, the State Council is accelerating its economic layout and seeking new growth drivers in areas such as railways, finance, health, elderly care, regional cooperation and urbanization, environmental protection industry, technological innovation, reform and opening up, and service industry. The tourism industry has once again welcomed favorable policies. Recently, the State Council has promoted policies to unleash the potential of tourism consumption and promote the development of the tourism industry. Against the backdrop of the country's resolute efforts to promote economic structural transformation and boost domestic demand, the tourism industry is expected to become a leading industry in the consumer economy due to its numerous related industrial chains. The formal implementation of the Tourism Law will create a more favorable market environment and promote tourism planning and industrial development. The foreign economy is expected to continue to improve, with clear positive factors. The G20 Summit Communique in September pointed out that at present, the economies of developed countries are relatively stable, the United States is recovering, Europe is improving, and Japan is stable. Although the international financial crisis has not yet ended, the global economy is steadily recovering, and this governance mechanism will take measures to promote sustained growth of the world economy. The Federal Reserve will also maintain the scale of the third round of quantitative easing monetary policy in the short term. The World Tourism Organization predicts that the growth trend will continue in the second half of this year, with a full year increase of 4% or slightly higher, slightly higher than the forecast at the beginning of the year. Economic foundation: Stable tourism willingness and market confidence. At present, consumers' attention and willingness to travel remain at a relatively high level in recent years. In the fourth quarter, the willingness of Chinese residents to travel was 85.4, which is at a relatively high level. Since the beginning of summer, most parts of the country have experienced continuous heatwaves and natural disasters such as floods, which have hindered the demand for summer tourism and are likely to be concentrated during the National Day holiday. In early September, online users' attention to National Day tourism increased by 198% within a week, while media attention increased by 650%. In terms of industry, the confidence index of tourism entrepreneurs is 128.74, higher than the 115.85 and 110.16 in the first and second quarters, and the investment prosperity index of tourism enterprises is 106.56, higher than the 102.67 in the second quarter. From January to July, fixed assets investment in accommodation and catering industry increased by 23.9% year on year. Problem: The issue of structural imbalance remains prominent. The problem of structural imbalance is not only the biggest issue in the current and fourth quarter tourism economy operation, but also the biggest negative factor next year. In terms of market structure, the problem of weak growth in inbound tourism due to the traditional three major markets' "two rises and one fall" has not been properly addressed. Among the "three carriages" of domestic tourism, mass leisure stands out, while official travel has decreased and business travel has remained relatively flat. Relying solely on national leisure consumption can only lead to quantitative growth and cannot form the market pattern required by the industry. In terms of industrial structure, although the hotel industry rebounded the most in the third quarter, travel agencies should be the most effective barometer of the tourism industry from the perspectives of hotels, travel agencies, tourism industry, and comprehensive tourism enterprises. However, the number of group members decreased by 18% year-on-year in the first half of the year, indicating that restaurants rely on local demand for conferences, wedding banquets, and other events, rather than real tourism demand. Since the beginning of this year, especially in the first half of the year, there has been a prolonged decline in the operating performance of hotels and other enterprises, but few hotels have been sold. The correlation between investment and operation is weak, indicating that the return on investment is not based on operational performance, but on the appreciation of land and property. The investment subjects are state-owned enterprises and governments, and enterprises are not sensitive to financial data. In addition, entrepreneurs have better judgments about their own businesses than about the tourism industry, and their current judgments are better than their future judgments, indicating that entrepreneurs lack confidence in the future of the market. From the perspective of market and industry matching, demand is the driving force of the industry, but the third quarter data shows that the industry's response is more sensitive. The central and local governments' regulation of investment and consumption focuses more on demand rather than supply, lacking regulatory power over the tourism industry and guidance for technology, research and development, and innovation entities, resulting in inconsistency between the government's regulatory direction and focus and the behavior of market entities. Development forecast: The overall development goal for the whole year will be achieved, and inbound tourism will slightly decrease. Based on comprehensive analysis, we still maintain a "relatively optimistic" judgment on the overall tourism economic situation for the whole year. The overall development goal for the tourism industry set at the beginning of the year can be achieved, and inbound tourism will slightly decrease. It is expected that the total number of tourists received throughout the year will be 3.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%; The total tourism revenue was 2.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%. The number of domestic tourists reached 3.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%; Domestic tourism revenue reached 2.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The number of inbound tourists reached 129 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3%; The foreign exchange revenue from inbound tourism was 47 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 2%. The number of outbound tourists reached 98 million, a year-on-year increase of 18%; Outbound tourism costs 120 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 20%, and a tourism service trade deficit of 73 billion US dollars.