Rationally view the prosperity of the tourism market and actively promote the implementation of existing policies - Analysis of tourism economic operation in the first quarter of 2015 and research res

On April 9, 2015, the China Tourism Academy released in Beijing the analysis of the operation of the tourism economy in the first quarter of 2015 and the trend forecast for the first half of the year. It believed that the fundamentals of the operation of the tourism economy in the first quarter were generally stable, driven by macro policies and the "515" tourism development strategy. Impact, entrepreneurship and innovation in the tourism field have become more active. Taking into account factors such as macroeconomic downward pressure and the tourism economy leading index, we maintain a "relatively optimistic" expectation for the operation of the tourism economy in the first half of the year. It is estimated that in the first half of the year, the total number of tourists nationwide will be 2.06 billion, and tourism revenue will be 1.7 trillion yuan. Macroeconomic growth has declined, and stability has become the main tone for tourism development. In the first quarter, tourism market demand was strong, the domestic market grew steadily, the inbound market continued to recover, and the outbound market maintained rapid growth. The operating structure of the tourism industry has become increasingly differentiated. Affected by multiple factors such as relevant policies and the industrial transformation period, the prosperity of the high-star hotel industry and high-end catering companies is still operating at a low level, but the operating performance of economical and mid-range business hotels is good. The performance of large online tourism companies has declined due to competition for market share, but the performance of large traditional tourism companies with upstream resources and downstream tourist resources has increased significantly. Tourism-related policies have been implemented, and some policy effects have begun to appear. "Tourism Law", "National Tourism and Leisure Outline", "Several Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Development of Tourism" (Guofa 2009[41]), "Several Opinions of the State Council on Promoting the Reform and Development of the Tourism Industry" (Guofa 2014[ 31]), the effect of the "515 Tourism Strategy" has initially appeared: a new consensus on tourism development has been formed, new expectations of the people for tourism development have been met, a new pattern of tourism economic operation has been constructed, and a new synergy for tourism development has been formed. It builds a new future for the beautiful Chinese tourism dream. Tourism economic development expectations for the first half of 2015: relatively optimistic “Adjusting structure and stabilizing growth” is the focus of the government’s work this year, and the importance of the service industry in economic structural adjustment has been confirmed again. Railway investment is tilted toward the central and western regions and national-level strategic plans such as the “One Belt and One Road” initiative, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration, and the Yangtze River Economic Belt have brought more policy benefits to the tourism industry. The leading indicator for tourism in the second quarter was 108.2. Among them, residents’ willingness to travel is as high as 80.28%. In the long term, as long as the income of my country’s residents continues to grow steadily, residents’ travel consumption demand will show a steady growth trend. The New Deal to promote consumption and entrepreneurship and innovation driven by capital, technology and talent will become an important engine for the stable development of the tourism market in the first half of the year and even throughout the year. The tourism economy will still maintain a stable and upward trend in the first half of the year, but there are structural investment risks, and overall "relatively optimistic" expectations are maintained.