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戴斌 | 增长、变化与关注——中国入出境旅游市场形势与政策展望

2024-10-29 字号:[ ]

应泰国观光旅游协会(ATTA)邀请,经文化和旅游部批准,中国旅游研究院院长戴斌于10月29日赴泰国参加2024泰国国际旅行商大会,发表主题演讲《增长、变化与关注——中国入出境旅游市场形势与政策展望》。全文分享如下:

作为生活方式的

出境旅游与安全关注


过去两年,随着经济社会发展步入常态化发展新阶段,中国人民对世界的好奇心被重新唤醒,出境旅游市场得以快速复苏。2024年前三季度,中国出境旅游人数近9500万人次,同比增长52.0%,恢复到2019年的82%。今年国庆节七天假期,出境旅游人数达到267.7万人次。香港和澳门地区的基础市场地位,以及东南亚、东亚近程旅游为主的市场格局没有改变,“一带一路”沿线国家目的地特别是西亚、北非地区明显增长。受地区冲突影响,欧美等远程市场的航空供应链和旅游市场增长恢复不尽如人意。从国际航班数量来看,东亚和东南亚的航班数量占中国国际航班数量的76%,“一带一路”沿线国家国际航班数量占中国国际航班总量的60%。相对而言,欧洲和北美地区的航空运力恢复程度未达到预期。

从出境旅游流向与流量来看,个性需求、自助旅行开始带动小众目的地国家和城市的成长。三十年前,中国人外出旅游会说欧洲、北美、南美和非洲,二十年前会说“新马泰+港澳”这样的线路或者中亚五国这样的区域,十年前会说泰国、法国、新西兰。现在呢?则会讲某个城市、某个岛屿、某个度假地。越来越多过去没有听说过的目的地国家和地区开始进入出境旅游者的选项中来,越来越多的非传统资源开始成为出境旅游的理由,人们甚至为了一场体育赛事,为了一场音乐会,为了一个特色餐厅或者时令美食而到访一个国家、城市和乡村。从消费行为来看,以前是“走走走”,欧洲七天十国游的线路畅销不衰。后来就是“买买买”,中国游客被视为“行走的钱包”。

现在呢?走出国门的游客脚步慢下来了,更愿意为美好生活付费,要住好一点的酒店,吃好一些的美食,参观博物馆、美术馆,观看高水平的文艺表演,希望发现一些小而精、小而美、小而暖的生活场景并深度体验之。比如马来西亚旅游局针对中国1亿多的钓鱼爱好者,从2008年起持续推广马来西亚的近海钓、深海钓、浅水钓、深水钓等多种钓鱼体验项目。人工智能等现代科技深刻改变了人与人之间的交流交往方式,语言和支付早已经不是出境旅游的障碍了。越来越多的游客在大模型和生活类应用软件的帮助下,自助乘坐当地的公共交通,自由出入戏剧场到菜市场,将异国他乡的城市、街区和乡村变成主客共享的美好生活新空间。

基于宏观经济、市场政策和出游意愿等先行指标,我们预计2024年中国公民出境旅游市场将接近2019年水平,并对即将到来的2025年充满积极乐观的预期

习近平主席指出,读万卷书、行万里路,自古以来就是中华民族的优良传统,出国旅游尤为人民所向往。中国式现代化是物质文明和精神文明协调发展的现代化,中国人民历史性解决了“两不愁,三保障”,即贫困人口不愁吃和不愁穿,基本医疗、住房安全和义务教育保障,全面实现小康社会以后,发展理念更加关注包括旅游在内的高品质生活的需要。这是我们对中国出境旅游市场始终保持乐观预期和发展信心最根本的原因。持中国护照在世界各地旅游越来越自由而方便,每年都有成千上万的人说“这个周末我们去曼谷吧”“下个假期我们去普吉吧”,就像说“这个周末我们郊区休息两天吧”一样自然。

越来越多的海外目的地系统研究并精准洞察了中国游客的旅游行为和消费趋势,旅行商向主要客源市场有针对性推出了家庭游、亲子游、研学游、度假游等分众产品,甚至专门陪游客品尝当地的特色美食、时令的海鲜,或者深度体验当地的音乐、美术、工艺和民俗。这些都是我们乐于看到的趋势,希望更多的中国游客在海外旅游目的地分享异国他乡的美好生活,在文明对话和文化交流中提高综合素质,增强文化自信。政府将不再追求在任何时候对任何国家都保持旅游贸易顺差,也不会轻易采取贸易和非贸易壁垒对出境旅游进行管制。

数以亿计的中国公民在海外旅游的安全和品质也是我们重点关注的领域。游客在旅行的过程中,在目的地居留期间,其人身自由和财产安全的保障,需要各国公共安全部门和文化、旅游部门切实加强合作,比如在总结经验的基础上,探索推广中外旅游警察的联合巡逻机制,让游客都自由而放心地进入法律没有禁止的任何空间。安全之上是品质。希望目的地城市特别是酒店、餐饮和博物馆等旅游接待场所多些中文标识、中式餐饮和中文服务。商业机构一直都是旅游发展最稳定,也是可靠的推进力量,希望中外旅行服务商之间、旅行服务商和资源供应商之间更加紧密地合作,为中国出境旅游者提供高品质的服务。

超预期增长的中国

入境旅游与政策创新



入境旅游一直都是中国旅游工作的重点,也是政策创新的发力点。自去年下半年以来,中央政府连续推出签证、移民、口岸和消费支付便利化政策,国家和地方不断加大对外对港澳台人文交流和旅游推广力度。截至今年10月中旬,中国已与24个国家实现了普通护照全面互免签证,对20个国家实行单方面免签入境,对54个国家实行72/144小时过境免签。已经有40个国家的公民可直接免签入境,32个国家的公民可通过72/144小时过境免签入境。“大额刷卡、小额扫码、现金兜底”支付便利化措施,有效提升了外国入境旅游者的消费体验感。文化和旅游部门在中法等双边旅游年和上合组织等多边合作机制框架下,积极推广“你好!中国”国家旅游新形象,有效调动了海外旅行商的市场积极性。入境旅游正在进入快速复苏的新通道和繁荣发展的新阶段。

港澳居民入境基础市场更加稳固,外国人入境旅游市场实现了超预期增长,稳步进入了快速复苏新阶段。2024年上半年,入境中国的外国人1463.5万人次,扣除工作、留学、交通乘员等非旅游人群,来华外国游客1194.8万人次,恢复到2019年同期的七成左右。从季度数据来看,同比和环比均实现了显著增长。下半年,外国人入境旅游市场有望恢复到2019年同期水平,步入繁荣发展新周期。

随着对外开放力度的加大,越来越多的公共文化和休闲场所成为主客共享的美好生活新空间,满足了来华入境旅游者的多样化、个性化和品质化需求。受免签、支付等入境便利化政策推动以及社交媒体对中国和中国旅游信息的更多传播,加上国际游客自身更加注重个性化体验,入境旅游散客化趋势愈加凸显。入境游客倾向于避开热门旅游目的地,选择前往人流较少或费用较低的替代性目的地。泰国入境游客普遍选择非一线城市,云南、四川、重庆等地是泰国游客到访最多的省市,与泰国文化更相近的西双版纳是一大热门目的地。在华旅行便利度的持续提升将进一步促使入境游客更广泛地进入目的地的生活空间,在华旅游体验深度增加,体验内容更加生活化,国内游客和本地居民生活方式已经成为入境游客喜爱程度最高的体验内容。在入境人数和旅游花费稳步增长的同时,外国游客满意度也在稳步提高,2024年第一和第二季度分别为81.7、82.9,均超过历史平均水平,且呈现持续提升态势。建设旅游强国,需要顶层设计,需要地方探索,也需要旅游业界的相向而行。

基于全球经济、签证和支付便利化政策、国家旅游形象建设与市场推广等先行指标,我们对2025年和今后一个时期的入境旅游市场保持持续乐观预期。

在签证、移民、海关、口岸等入境旅游的便利化程度进一步提高的同时,在中国境内的住宿、游览和支付也将更为便捷。2024年3月,国务院办公厅印发《关于进一步优化支付服务提升支付便利性的意见》,增加布设外币兑换业务网点和外卡刷卡设备,提升入境游客支付便利度。2024年7月,商务部等7个部门联合印发《关于服务高水平对外开放 便利境外人员住宿若干措施的通知》,明确相关方不应以资质要求等为门槛限制住宿业经营者接待境外人员,改善境外人员的住宿体验。中国还将提升景区门票、车(船)票预订购买、多语种服务等方面的便利度,在华旅行整体便利度将进一步提升。

当“你好!中国”

遇见“神奇泰国”



中泰两国一直互为重要的旅游目的地,也是恢复最快的旅游市场。早在上个世纪九十年代,泰国和马来西亚、新加坡一道成为中国公民出国旅游的代名词。2008年到2019年,中国公民赴泰旅游保持持续快速增长态势,年均增长率达到29.1%。2019年,中国公民首站赴泰国旅游1036.45万人次。2019年,泰国来华旅游者87.05万人次,在“一带一路”客源国中位居前十。受互免签证和市场推广等利好因素的影响,中泰两国也是相互恢复最快的国源客源市场。北京到曼谷的航班数量已经恢复到疫情前的水平,平均每周有8-9班,几乎每个省会城市都有前往泰国的航班。国庆节假日期间,由中国飞往泰国的航班超过960架次,较前一周增量超过110架次。泰国旅游与体育部数据显示,今年1月至9月,泰国累计接待中国游客525万人次,是泰国的第一大客源。

中泰两国一直推动旅游业高质量发展行稳致远,获得了游客满意度的高分评价。2023年,中国赴泰游客满意度为81.87分,位居出境旅游目的地国家和地区的第6位。中国游客对泰国的目的地形象、当地居民态度、性价比、休闲娱乐、购物评价都给出了高分。2023年来华泰国游客满意度为83.48,明显高于入境游客整体满意度。除了英文交流感觉不方便以外,对酒店的地理位置、房间的干净舒适程度和企业员工的专业素质均给予较高评价。值得一提的是,泰国游客认为中国不仅中餐做得好,泰餐也非常正宗。我们注意到,赴泰旅游的中国游客以22至45岁的年轻人为主,约80%的中国游客选择自由行、购买酒店度假套餐或参加小型私人旅行团。从调查数据来看,这部分最有活力的客群对泰国的旅游品质是充分期待的,也是令人满意的。

中泰旅游交流得益于政治互信、民心相通和经贸往来,得益于旅游部门和旅游业界的相向而行。2012年4月,中泰两国建立全面战略合作伙伴关系。2022年,习近平主席赴曼谷参加APEC会议并正式访问泰国。2024年,中泰两国实行互免签证政策。前不久,年近古稀的诗琳通公主结束了为期7天的第51次访华之行。从北京到四川,一路写下了“中泰一家亲”友好情谊的新篇章。今年上半年,泰国访华游客47.71万人次,约占来华外国人入境旅游市场的4%,而在疫情前的2019年,这项数据还不足3%。北京和海南等主要旅游目的地数据表明,泰国入境旅游市场已经创下了历史新高。今年1-8月份,北京市接待泰国入境游客超过6万人次,是2019年的1.7倍。海南省接待泰国入境游客约1.3万人次,是2019年的1.3倍。目前,中泰两国旅游交流正在迎来繁荣发展的新机遇,相信很快就能恢复并超过历史最高水平。

希望更多的中国游客去泰国观光、休闲、度假,希望泰国政府和旅游业界能够为中国游客提供更高的安全和品质保障。期待更多的泰国游客能够像诗琳通公主一样来中国多走走,体验一个传承文化创造为未来的中国,一个民族复兴、人民幸福的中国,一个开放包容、主客共享的中国。




Growth, Changes and Concerns

--Questions about Inbound and Outbound Tourism from China

October 29, 2024, Bangkok


I. Outbound travel as a lifestyle and security concerns
In the past two years, as China entered a new normal in economic and social development, Chinese people regained their curiosity about the world, and the outbound tourism market was fueled to recover. In the first three quarters of 2024, there were near 95 million Chinese tourists travelling abroad, up by 52% to 82% as in 2019. China saw 2.677 million outbound trips during the 7-day National Day holiday this year. Tourists from Hong Kong and Macao still underlie Chinese tourism market, and Chinese tourists mainly choose Southeast Asia and East Asia for short-distance travels. The BRI countries, especially West Asian and North African regions witnessed a notable increase in the number of tourists from China. Shocked by regional conflicts, long-distance destinations like Europe and US suffered slowdown in recovering their airline supply chains and tourism markets. In light of the number of international flights, the number of flights to East Asia and Southeast Asia constituted 76% of the total number of flights outbound from China, and that of flights to BRI countries accounted for 60%. Relatively speaking, the capacity of airline to Europe and US failed to recover as expected.
In terms of outbound tourist flow and traffic, personalized needs and self-guided travels became the growth driver for niche destination countries and cities.Chinese tourists would travel to Europe, North America, South America and Africa 30 years ago; or to Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Hong Kong and Macao, or the five countries in Central Asia 20 years ago; or to Thailand, France and New Zealand 10 years ago. How about now? They may say they would like to go to a certain city, island or resort. More and more unknown destination countries and regions are being highly sought after by tourists. More and more non-traditional resources account for outbound travels. People may travel to a country, city or rural area for a sports event, a concert, a feature restaurant or seasonal foods. Looking at consumer behaviors, Chinese tourists used to “go, go, go”, showing strong appetite for the 7-day travel route to ten countries. Later we turned to “buy, buy, buy”. Chinese tourists are hence known as a “walking wallet”.
How about now? Chinese tourists would not like to travel abroad as they did in the past. We are more willing to pay for a good life, stay in a high-grade restaurant or taste delicious foods. We might visit a museum or an art gallery, or watch a high-level artist show, in hope to find some pretty, exquisite, and warm life scenes and deeply appreciate them. Tourism Malaysia, for example, has consistently promoted a wide range of fishing programs like near-sea fishing, deep-sea fishing, shallow-water fishing and deep-water fishing for over 100 million fishing fans from China since 2008. AI and other modern technologies have radically changed the way we communicate and socialize, and language and payment do no longer prevent us from travelling abroad. By use of large-model and life applications, a growing number of tourists take local buses on their own, and freely shuttle from theater to vegetable market, sharing the destination city, street block, and rural area with local residents.
Based on leading indicators such as macroeconomics, market policies and willingness to travel, we expect the outbound tourism market for Chinese citizens in 2024 to be close to the 2019 level, and we are optimistic about the upcoming 2025.
As President Xi Jinping stressed, “In order to attain wisdom, it is not enough merely to read books, you must be well-travelled as well.” This is the long-chased fine tradition of Chinese nation. Travelling abroad is highly sought after in particular. Chinese-style modernization is a process whereby material and spiritual civilization develops in parallel. Chinese people have radically addressed prominent issues to ensure rural poor people do not have to worry about food and clothing and have access to compulsory education, basic medical services and safe housing. After completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all aspects, more and more people turn to pursue high-quality life including travel. This fundamentally accounts for our optimism and confidence about the growth of Chinese outbound tourism market. We find it more and more convenient to travel around the world holding a Chinese passport freely, and every year thousands of people say, “Let’s go to Bangkok this weekend,” “Let’s go to Phuket on our next vacation,” which is as natural as saying, “Let’s take a two-day break in the suburbs this weekend.”
More and more overseas destinations have systematically researched and gained precise insights into Chinese tourists’ travel behaviors and consumption trends, and travel agencies deliver well-targeted products such as family tours, parent-child tours, study tours, vacation tours, etc., to major tourist markets, and even accompany tourists to savor local specialties, seasonal seafood, or to experience in-depth the local music, fine arts, crafts, and folklore. These are what we are happy to see, and we hope that more Chinese tourists will share their exciting moments in overseas destinations, and that they can improve their overall quality and enhance their confidence in our Chinese culture during civilized dialogues and cultural exchanges. The government will no longer seek to maintain a tourism trade surplus with any country at any time, nor will it easily impose trade and non-trade barriers on outbound tourism.

Hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens are traveling overseas, so safety and quality are what we are concerned about most. All the public security, cultural and tourism departments concerned need to step up cooperation to safeguard tourists’ personal and property security and their freedom during their stay in the destination. For example, they can draw on past experience to promote the joint patrol mechanism exercised by Chinese and foreign tourism policemen, and allow tourists to enter any space not prohibited by law freely and with peace of mind. Above security is quality. We hope that destination cities, especially tourist reception places such as hotels, restaurants and museums, will have more Chinese signs, Chinese foods and beverages and Chinese services. Commercial organizations have always been the most stable and reliable promoter for tourism development. We hope to see closer cooperation between Chinese and foreign travel service providers, as well as between travel service providers and resource suppliers, in order to provide high-quality services for Chinese outbound travelers.

II. Over-expected growth in Chinese inbound tourism and policy innovation
Inbound tourism remains as the priority of our tourism-related tasks, and we always keep it in mind when innovating policies. Since the second half of last year, the central government has rolled out a raft of supporting policies concerning visa, migration, port and consumer payment, and national and local governments have stepped up efforts in promoting people-to-people exchanges and tourism to Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. As of mid-October this year, China waived visa requirements for ordinary passport holders from 24 countries that did the same way, and unilaterally gave visa-free access for 20 countries, and 72/144-hour visa-free transit for 54 countries. Already, citizens of 40 countries can directly transit without a visa, and citizens of 32 countries can transit without visas for up to 72/144 hours in China. Payment facilitation measures, such as “bank cards for large value payment, QR codes for small value payment, and no refusal to accept cash”, have effectively enhanced the consumption experience of overseas tourists. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism has actively promoted the new tourism image of “Hello China” under the framework of cultural and tourism years such as the China-France Year of Culture and Tourism and multilateral cooperation mechanisms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This effectively stimulates the enthusiasm of overseas travel agencies. Inbound tourism is entering the fast track of recovery and a new stage of prosperity.
The market of inbound tourists from Hong Kong and Macao is stabilizing, and that of foreign tourists has achieved over-expected growth and steadily entered a new stage of rapid recovery. In the first six months of 2024, China received almost 14.635 million inbound tourists, and after deducting the number of people who came to China for other purposes than travel, such as working and studying abroad, and those who are crew members, there were about 11.948 million foreign tourists. This suggests that the tourism market has recovered about 70% of the level of the same period in 2019. Looking at the quarterly data, we see dramatic growth both on a YoY and MoM/QoQ basis. In the second half of the year, the inbound tourist market is expected to recover to the level of the same period in 2019 and step into a new cycle of prosperity.
As China continues to advance opening up, more and more public cultural and leisure places have become a new space for a better life shared by tourists and local residents, catering to the diversified, personalized and quality needs of inbound tourists to China. As visa-free, payment and other facilitation policies were rolled out for inbound tourists, social media disseminate China and tourism information, and tourists from around the world pursue personalized experience, China has seen more and more individual inbound tourists. Most of them tend to go to the places with less flow of population and requiring lower costs other than hot spots. Most tourists from Thailand would choose non-Tier 1 cities, and Yunnan, Sichuan and Chongqing are most frequented. Xishuangbanna, more culturally similar to Thailand, becomes a highly-chased destination. As travelling in China becomes more convenient, inbound tourists will go in-depth into the living space of the native at a wider range. They will experience more about the life there. Local residents’ lifestyle has become what inbound tourists want to experience most. With the ever-growing number of inbound tourists and tourism spending, satisfaction of foreign tourist has also been steadily improved, and the arrivals reached 81.7 and 82.9 respectively in the first and second quarters of 2024, both above the historical average level, and showing an unfailing upward trend. Building up a tourism power requires top-level design, regional exploration, and the entire tourism sector to work together in the same direction.
Considering the leading indicators related to global economy, visa, national tourism image building and market promotion, we are consistently optimistic about the development of inbound tourist market in 2025 and beyond.

With inbound tourism further being facilitated in aspects of visas, immigration, customs and ports, accommodation, sightseeing and payment will also be more convenient in China.In March, 2024, the General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Further Optimizing Payment Services to Facilitate Payments to increase the number of outlets providing foreign currency exchange services and overseas bank card swiping devices, so as to facilitate payments for inbound tourists. In July, 2024, seven departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the Notice on Several Measures to Serve High-Level Opening-up and Facilitate Accommodation for Overseas Personnel, simplifying access to hotel accommodations for overseas tourists by removing qualification and other barriers and enhancing services. China will also simplify booking and purchase of scenic spot tickets and bus (ship) tickets, and provide multilingual services, in order to better facilitate travels in China.

III. “Nihao! China” vs. “Wonderful Thailand”
China and Thailand are important tourist destinations and sources for each other, and the fastest to recover tourism. As early as the 1990s, Thailand, along with Malaysia and Singapore, became synonymous with overseas travel for Chinese citizens. From 2008 to 2019, the number of Chinese tourists to Thailand was steadily on the rise, with an average annual growth rate of 29.1%. In 2019, 10,364,500 trips were made by Chinese citizens as first stops to travel to Thailand. In 2019, there were 870,500 Thai tourists to China, ranking among top 10 BRI source countries. Thanks to favorable factors such as mutual visa exemption and marketing promotion, China and Thailand are also the fastest-recovering source markets for each other. The number of flights from Beijing to Bangkok has returned to the pre-epidemic level, with an average of 8-9 flights per week, and almost every provincial capital city has flights to Thailand. During the National Day holiday, there were more than 960 flights from China to Thailand, increasing by more than 110 flights from the week earlier. According to data from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports of Thailand, from January to September this year, Thailand received 5.25 million Chinese tourists, making it the largest source of tourists.
China and Thailand have been vigorously fostering the high-quality development of the tourism sector, and have been given high scores in terms of tourist satisfaction. In 2023, Chinese tourists to Thailand scored 81.87 for their satisfaction, ranking No. 6 among outbound tourism destination countries and regions. Chinese tourists gave high scores to Thailand’s destination image, attitudes of local residents, value for money, leisure and entertainment, and shopping comments. In 2023, Thai tourists to China scored 83.48 for their satisfaction, much greater than the score of overall satisfaction given by inbound tourists. Except for feeling embarrassed when communicating in English, they gave high scores to hotel location, room cleanness and comfort, and professionalism of company staff. What’s more, Thai tourists reported that Chinese people are not only good at making delicious Chinese food, but also serves very authentic Thai food. We note that Chinese tourists to Thailand are predominantly young people aged between 22 and 45. 80% of them choose to travel on their own, buy hotel vacation packages or join small private guided group tours. The survey data reveal that these most energetic tourists hold high expectation for and are also satisfied with the quality of travel in Thailand.
The tourism exchanges between China and Thailand result from political mutual trust, strong bond among people, and economic and trade ties, and also as tourism departments and the sector at large form synergy with each other. In April 2012, China and Thailand established a comprehensive strategic partnership. In 2022, President Xi Jinping arrived in Bangkok, Thailand to attend the 29th APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting and visit Thailand. In 2024, China and Thailand implemented a mutual visa exemption policy. Not long ago, Princess Sirindhorn, near the age of 70, ended a 7-day 51st visit to China. She has written a new chapter of the special friendship between the two countries as close as one family all the way from Beijing to Sichuan. In the first half of this year,up to 477,100 Thai tourists visited China, constituting about 4% of the total overseas tourists. Nonetheless, prior to COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, this figure was less than 3%. Data from major tourist destinations such as Beijing and Hainan show that Thailand’s inbound tourism market has hit a record high. From January to August this year, Beijing received more than 60,000 inbound tourists from Thailand, 1.7 times of the 2019 figure. Hainan received about 13,000 inbound tourists from Thailand, 1.3 times as many as in 2019. Tourism exchanges between China and Thailand are ushering in new opportunities for prosperity, and are set to recover and exceed the record high level as soon as possible.

We hope to see more Chinese tourists going to Thailand for sightseeing, entertainment and holiday break, and that the Thailand’s government will provide Chinese tourists with higher security and quality. We expect more Thai tourists will pay frequent visits to China just like Princess Sirindhorn, to experience our country which carries forward our culture, builds a bright future, seeks happiness for people, rejuvenates the nation, and offers an enjoyable experience for both hosts and guests with an open and inclusive mind.

作者 | 戴斌
责编 | 刘鑫
来源 | 中国旅游研究院(文化和旅游部数据中心)
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